Sunday Slush Gives Way to 50s Tuesday

Saturday night's clipper dropped the most snow north of I-94, just enough to cover up all those un-raked leaves. Flurries taper today, but a light dusting is possible late tomorrow as milder, Pacific air approaches. Get any snow angels out of your system today, because any slush will melt Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

November 14, 2021 at 3:30AM
Snow Plow Camera NW of Alexandria MN Midday Saturday (MN DOT/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Winter Driving Tips

Severe weather can be both frightening and dangerous for travelers. Winter storms, bad weather and sloppy road conditions are a factor in nearly half a million crashes and more than 2,000 road deaths every winter, according to research by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. Drivers should know the safety rules for dealing with winter road emergencies. AAA urges drivers to be cautious while driving in adverse weather.

AAA recommends the following tips while driving in snowy and icy conditions:

Cold Weather Driving Tips

  • Keep a bundle of cold-weather gear in your car, such as extra food and water, warm clothing, a flashlight, a glass scraper, blankets, medications, and more.
    • Make certain your tires are properly inflated and have plenty of tread.
      • Keep at least half a tank of fuel in your vehicle at all times.
        • Never warm up a vehicle in an enclosed area, such as a garage.
          • Do not use cruise control when driving on any slippery surface, such as on ice and snow.

            Tips for Driving in the Snow

            • Stay home. Only go out if necessary. Even if you can drive well in bad weather, it's better to avoid taking unnecessary risks by venturing out.
              • Drive slowly. Always adjust your speed down to account for lower traction when driving on snow or ice.
                • Accelerate and decelerate slowly. Apply the gas slowly to regain traction and avoid skids. Don't try to get moving in a hurry and take time to slow down for a stoplight. Remember: It takes longer to slow down on icy roads.
                  • Increase your following distance to five to six seconds. This increased margin of safety will provide the longer distance needed if you have to stop.
                    • Know your brakes. Whether you have antilock brakes or not, keep the heel of your foot on the floor and use the ball of your foot to apply firm, steady pressure on the brake pedal.
                      • Don't stop if you can avoid it. There's a big difference in the amount of inertia it takes to start moving from a full stop versus how much it takes to get moving while still rolling. If you can slow down enough to keep rolling until a traffic light changes, do it.
                        • Don't power up hills. Applying extra gas on snow-covered roads will just make your wheels spin. Try to get a little inertia going before you reach the hill and let that inertia carry you to the top. As you reach the crest of the hill, reduce your speed and proceed downhill slowly.

                          Don't stop going up a hill. There's nothing worse than trying to get moving up a hill on an icy road. Get some inertia going on a flat roadway before you take on the hill.
                          See more from AAA HERE:

                          Black Ice (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Weather Outlook Ahead

                          The simulated radar from AM Saturday to AM Sunday shows our next clipper system rolling into town with more snow. It'll be a fast moving system that could drop 1" to 3" of snow across parts of the region, mainly north of the Twin Cities.

                          Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Average First Measurable Snow At MSP

                          Taking a look at the last the last 30 years, the climatological average first measurable snowfall (0.1") at the MSP Airport typically happens around November 5th. Note that our earliest measurable snowfall on record was on September 24th back in 1985 and our latest was on December 3rd, 1928.

                          Average First Measurable Snowfall At MSP (xmACIS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Average First 1.0" Snowfall At MSP

                          Taking a look at the last the last 30 years, the climatological average first 1.0" snowfall at the MSP Airport typically happens around November 21st. Note that our earliest measurable snowfall on record was on September 26th back in 1942 and our latest was on January 21st, 2005.

                          Average First 1.0” Snowfall At MSP (xmACIS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Drought Update For Minnesota

                          According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 7% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 42% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 29%, down from 78% 3 months ago. Nearly 56% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

                          MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

                          Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -5.63" below average since January 1st, which is the 52nd driest January 1st - November 12th on record.

                          Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Sunday Weather Outlook

                          Through the first 12 days of the month, MSP was sitting at the 21st warmest November on record. Interestingly, MSP is sitting at its 4 warmest Meteorological Fall on record so far (September 1st - November 12th). Sunday will be another chilly day with temps running nearly -10F below average. Highs will only warm into the mid 30s under partly sunny skies. Breezy NW winds will make it feel more like the 10s and 20s through much of the day.

                          Sunday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Meteograms for Minneapolis

                          The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday, shows readings starting in the upper 20s and warming into the low/mid 30s by the afternoon. Skies will be cloudy in the morning and will give way to peeks of sunshine in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds could gust close to 20mph through the day.

                          Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
                          Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Weather Outlook For Sunday

                          High temps across the region on Sunday will only warm into the upper 20s and 30s across the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for mid November. The clipper system that brought snow to parts of the region overnight Saturday will continue to rapidly shift southeast of the region.

                          Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
                          Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

                          The extended temperature outlook through next week shows temps running quite a bit below average through Monday. However, temps on Tuesday will warm into the mid 50s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average. After a mild Tuesday, temps will drop to below average once again through the 2nd half of the week and into the weekend ahead.

                          5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

                          More snow will fall PM Saturday into early Sunday morning, but things will be rather quiet through the 3rd full week of November. However, temps will warm into the 50s on Tuesday, but will drop below average again late in the week.

                          7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

                          According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will remain chilly through Monday, but will warm into the 50s by Tuesday briefly before cooling into the 30s again late in the week.

                          ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
                          GFS Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

                          According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps in the Central US, but the western half of the country will remain above average.

                          8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

                          According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, unsettled weather continues along the northern tier of the nation as well as along the Gulf Coast States and the East Coast. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will be dry.

                          8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Sunday Slush Gives Way to 50s Tuesday
                          By Paul Douglas

                          New weather-words have returned, meteorological jargon like "clippers" and "plowable snowfalls" and... oh never mind.

                          I'm always amused when I meet people from other (warmer) towns around the US, and they ask me where I live. More times than not their eyes get big and they whistle under their breath. "How do you LIVE there in the winter?" With the right clothing and all-wheel drive, quite comfortably, thank you. What's it like being in a raging hurricane?

                          Saturday night's clipper dropped the most snow north of I-94, just enough to cover up all those un-raked leaves. Flurries taper today, but a light dusting is possible late tomorrow as milder, Pacific air approaches. Get any snow angels out of your system today, because any slush will melt Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

                          We cool off late in the week and I see mostly 30s and 40sfor highs into Thanksgiving, with little chance of an epic storm anytime soon, thanks to strong west winds aloft. That means rapid weather changes - but no polar plunges anytime soon.

                          Extended Forecast

                          SUNDAY: Flurries taper, chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 34.

                          SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: NW 15-25. Low: 26.

                          MONDAY: Clouds linger, few flurries. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 36.

                          TUESDAY: Some sun, temperatures spike. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 54.

                          WEDNESDAY: Scrappy clouds and gusty winds. Winds: W 20-40. Wake-up: 33. High: 44.

                          THURSDAY: More sunshine, chilly. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 23. High: 33.

                          FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, stiff breeze. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 24. High: 38.

                          SATURDAY: Unsettled, passing rain shower? Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 30 High: 44.

                          This Day in Weather History

                          November 14th

                          2002: A magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Alaska turned some well water black in southeast Minnesota due to magnesium particles that were shaken loose.

                          1996: An ice storm moves through much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Schools closed or began late over much of southern Minnesota the morning of the 15th due to a 1/2 inch thick layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights were canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to ice forming on airplanes and runways, although mainly sleet was reported in the Twin Cities.

                          1833: A spectacular meteor shower is witnessed at Ft. Snelling.

                          Average High/Low for Minneapolis

                          November 14th

                          Average High: 42F (Record: 71F set in 1990)

                          Average Low: 27F (Record: 0F set in 1919)

                          Record Rainfall: 0.80" set in 1926

                          Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 1951

                          Twin Cities Almanac For November 14th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

                          November 13th

                          Sunrise: 7:09am

                          Sunset: 4:45pm

                          Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 35 minutes

                          Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 23 seconds

                          Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 15 Minutes

                          Moon Phase for November 14th at Midnight

                          3.8 Days Since First Quarter Moon

                          Moon Phase For November 14th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          National High Temps Sunday

                          The weather outlook on Sunday shows below average temps continuing from the Midwest to the East Coast. Meanwhile, temps in the Western US will remain above average with near record highs possible in southern California. This warmth will continue to bubble east with record warm possible on Monday and Tuesday across the Southern and Southwestern US.

                          National Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
                          National Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          National Weather Outlook

                          The weather outlook through the weekend shows active weather continuing across the northern tier of the nation with areas of rain and snow.

                          Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Extended Precipitation Outlook

                          According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier rains will be possible in the Western US and especially in the Pacific Northwest. Heavier rains will also be also across part of the Great Lakes.

                          Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Extended Snowfall Potential

                          Here's the extended snowfall potential, which shows areas of snow in the high elevations in the Western US and along the northern tier of the nation, including parts of the Midwest.

                          ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          Climate Stories

                          (NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

                          "Another problem with daylight saving time: The time change raises your risk of hitting deer on the road"

                          "Daylight saving time ends in the U.S. and Canada on Nov. 7, 2021, and most of us will be setting our clocks back an hour. There is a long-running debate about the benefit of the time change, given how it disrupts humans' circadian rhythms, causing short-term stress and fatigue. Another risk accompanying the time change is on the roads: As more people drive at dusk during an active time of year for deer, the number of deer-vehicle accidents rises. Deer cause over 1 million motor vehicle accidents in the U.S. each year, resulting in more than US$1 billion in property damage, about 200 human deaths and 29,000 serious injuries. Property damage insurance claims average around $2,600 per accident, and the overall average cost, including severe injuries or death, is over $6,000. While avoiding deer – as well as moose, elk and other hoofed animals, known as ungulates – can seem impossible if you're driving in rural areas, there are certain times and places that are most hazardous, and so warrant extra caution."

                          "2021 was a bad year for glaciers in western North America — and it's about to get much worse"

                          "The year 2021 will likely be one of the worst for glaciers in southern British Columbia, Alberta, Washington and Montana. It started out OK. A weak La Niña arrived in the fall of 2020 and continued through the winter. La Niñas tend to favour cool conditions and ample snowfall, so the winter of 2020-21 wasn't bad for glaciers. But what followed was. In late June, the so-called heat dome settled over the west, creating exceptional warming that melted snow cover on the glaciers and exposed ice in a matter of days. The timing was especially bad, as it coincided with days when energy from sunlight is at its maximum. The hot weather also helped spark wildfires in British Columbia, Oregon and California that spread through the mountains. When soot, dust and debris from wildfires settle on snow and ice, it darkens the surface, causing them to absorb more solar energy and melt more."

                          "November 2021 partial lunar eclipse longest for 1,000 years"

                          "Partial lunar eclipse with near-perfect alignment The November 19, 2021, partial lunar eclipse – which is best overnight on November 18 for North America – will be the longest such event within a stretch of 1,000 years. The last partial lunar eclipse that stretched longer happened on February 18, 1440. The next time Earth will see a partial lunar eclipse as lengthy as this month's will be on February 8, 2669. Why is it so long? As you might have guessed, the ordinary movements of worlds in space play a role. Between 06:02 and 12:03 UTC (convert UTC to your time) on November 19, the sun, Earth, and moon will come into near-perfect alignment. Earth's shadow will fall on the moon, resulting in the partial lunar eclipse. At the maximum point of the eclipse – at 09:02 UTC – 99% of the moon's face will be covered by the dark inner part of Earth's shadow, called the umbra. The remaining sliver of the lunar disk will be deep within the lighter, outer part of Earth's shadow, known as the penumbra. The overall duration of the November 2021 eclipse – from the moment the moon enters Earth's penumbral shadow, to the moment it leaves – will be around 21,693 seconds (about 6 hours and 2 minutes). For a non-total lunar eclipse – in other words, a lunar eclipse that only has penumbral and partial phases – this is an unusually long duration."

                          Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

                          @TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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