Strong Storms Possible Friday - Warming Up For The Weekend

A lot of the state is within the 25-75% color categories according to the latest update from the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder. At Zippel Bay State Park (which I have a picture of below taken by me last Friday), they said on Thursday that, "We have a variety of conditions happening in the Lake of the Woods area- and even just in the park! Some areas are past peak, while others are still extremely green. Making this year a tough one to rate!"

Zippel Bay State Park on September 22, 2023. Credit: D.J. Kayser

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Over the past week, we saw heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Minnesota - with some areas seeing 7-day rain amounts that were up to 5" above average.

These heavier rains led to a lot of drought improvement across the state week-to-week, with no Exceptional Drought (D4/4) in place and D3 Extreme Drought down to 8.03% from the 26.07% it was at in last week's update. However, the entire state continues to be considered at least abnormally dry.

As we look at the drought map week to week, we can see a lot of Minnesota saw at least some improvement in the drought. The good news is that there was no area that saw the drought worsen - even in areas of southwestern Minnesota which saw below-average precipitation over the past week.

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We will watch the chance of showers and storms across central and northern Minnesota through the daytime hours Friday (more on that directly below), with mainly dry continues from the metro southward. Highs range from the 60s up north to the 80s in southern Minnesota.

Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

While a few scattered showers or storms will occur across parts of central and northern Minnesota on Friday, stronger activity could form out in western Minnesota late in the afternoon into the evening hours. Models show most of these storms lifting north of the metro at the moment, and we'll have to see if that trend continues.

A few of those storms Friday afternoon and night could be strong to severe, with a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1/5) in place across central and southwestern Minnesota (including clipping the northwestern metro). Hail and wind will be the main threats from the stronger storms.

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Sunday: Another mainly sunny and warm day is expected to begin the month of October (maybe get an iced pumpkin spice instead of a hot one!). Highs will climb near the record for October 1st into the mid-80s (record high: 87F in 1897). Strong southeast winds of 10-15 mph are predicted.

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Should We Include a Confidence Level?
By Paul Douglas

Not all weather forecasts are created equal. We are more confident when weather models agree (ha!), but that is rare. Should meteorologists include a "Confidence Level" with every forecast?

My confidence level is high we'll see 80s early next week. A moderate confidence level we'll hear a few growls of thunder tonight and early Saturday. I have a low to moderate confidence level that a Super El Nino will spark a milder than average winter, with far less snow than last winter.

Most of today's showers and T-storms track north/west of MSP, but I do expect a few storms tonight. Any morning puddles should give way to some sun later in the day Saturday. Sunday and Monday look like the warmest days with near-record highs in the mid 80s.

But there WILL be atmospheric pay-back. Long range models hint at 40s and 50s one week from today. Hang on.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms. Wake up 61. High 78. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Close to a record. Sunny, almost hot. Wake up 69. High 86. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: What October. Sunny and windy. Wake up 66. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sticky sunshine, late thunder? Wake up 68. High 83. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers and T-storms. Wake up 65. High 75. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Cooling off. Wind-whipped showers. Wake up 52. High 59. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 29th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 49 minutes, and 6 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Sunlight? October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 51 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:30 AM? October 17th (7:31 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 6:30 PM? October 14th (6:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
September 29th

1876: An abnormally cool day occurs, with a high of 45 in the Twin Cities (normally the high should be 65 this time of year).

On Friday, showers and storms will be possible with a couple of lows and associated boundaries along the East Coast to the Gulf Coast. An area of low pressure in the Upper Midwest brings the chance of some strong storms. Meanwhile, a system out west brings rain and mixed precipitation chances from southern Washington to the Bay Area.

Heavy rain through the first half of the weekend will fall in portions of Florida and in/around the New York City area, where 1-3"+ of rain could fall. Meanwhile, we're also tracking the potential of a few inches of snow in the Cascades, northern Rockies, and the Sierra.

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How are birds faring through wacky weather?

More from the Star Tribune: "Ice storms in Texas, smoke from Canadian wildfires billowing over much of North America, 31 consecutive days of 110-degree heat in Phoenix: Those have been just some of the swings in the weather this year. How are the birds faring through it all? It's too early to draw any confident conclusions from the data, scientists say. Maybe there were fewer sightings of birds in Phoenix during the heat wave, or maybe fewer people ventured outside to bird watch. Based on past data, however, researchers know that hot and cold spells have a negative effect on birds, especially hatchlings."

More from Axios: "Millions of homeowners nationwide are facing higher insurance rates due to the risk of wildfires, high winds and flooding, a new analysis finds. About 12 million properties may see premium hikes because of the risk of flooding, nearly 24 million because of potential wind damage, and about 4.4 million because of wildfire risk, per estimates from the First Street Foundation, a climate data nonprofit. Why it matters: Many homeowners may struggle to manage higher costs. About 640,000 delinquent mortgages may see higher insurance premiums, the report finds, "increasing the likelihood of default." Driving the news: Insurers are changing how they factor climate and extreme weather risks into the premiums they charge for coverage, while some are suspending coverage altogether."

Here's how solar and wind kept the Texas grid online in 2023's brutal summer heat

More from Electrek: "Researchers from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) crunched data from ERCOT, which operates the Texas grid. The researchers found that from June 15 through September 15 – Texas's highest power-use period – solar provided more than 10% of the peak electric demand on 91 of those 93 days and averaged 13.8% across all 93 days. (And let's note that peak electricity demand time isn't even peak solar power generation time.) The Texas grid got a boost from solar because its growth in the state has skyrocketed in the last five years – the Lone Star State is now No. 2 in the US for installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association."

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- D.J. Kayser