St. Paul Public Schools continues to lose kids, but with a crucial final enrollment count awaiting approval, Superintendent Joe Gothard said last week he was pleased with how the numbers were trending.

For the first time in years, he said, the slide did not appear to be outpacing projections — a sign of stability, in his view.

Particularly encouraging, he added, was that a steady rise in daily enrollment in September came after a restructuring that closed several schools. Minneapolis had no such luck a year ago after its comprehensive district redesign.

"We have to make sure we're telling good stories," Gothard told school board members during a committee meeting Oct. 4.

School districts approve their annual budgets in June. For the 2022-23 school year, St. Paul projected a 1,483-student decline, from 33,366 to 31,883, in the all-important category of students who generate state revenue.

As of Sept. 23, when the district did its last daily count, the number had risen to 31,888, or plus-5 when compared with projections, Gothard said.

Erica Wacker, a district spokesperson, said the daily count on Sept. 12 had been minus-399 when compared with projections. Thus there was cause for optimism, she added, which Gothard conveyed in a message to staff members before the Sept. 23 tally was released.

"While an enrollment decline is not cause for celebration, it is what we expected and planned for and it provides a baseline for where we go from here," he wrote.

The district now has an enrollment and retention committee in partnership with the St. Paul Federation of Educators. Gothard said the committee's goal is to stabilize enrollment in 2023-24 and begin boosting numbers at under-enrolled schools in 2024-25.

In September, the board also learned how schools affected by the Envision SPPS redesign were faring against enrollment projections.

The big gainers, as of Sept 13: Cherokee Heights Elementary School on the West Side and Phalen Lake Hmong Studies Magnet on the East Side. The biggest losers: Bruce Vento Elementary School on the East Side and J.J. Hill Montessori Magnet School in the Summit-University area.

The changes in fortune for Cherokee Heights and J.J. Hill Montessori stem from decisions made by West Side families to keep their Montessori students at Cherokee Heights rather than send them to J.J. Hill — as intended under Envision SPPS.

The crucial date for state funding purposes was Oct. 1. The district is crunching numbers now in anticipation of having a final enrollment figure in December.