Spring is Malfunctioning

A clipper turns on our malfunctioning wind machine again today with gusts over 30 mph. Rain arrives Wednesday and a surge of southern warmth and moisture may ignite a few thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday; the milder day of the weekend.

April 18, 2022 at 2:30AM
Sunrise on Easter Sunday (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

April Weather Summary So Far

Here's the Twin Cities weather summary for April so far. Note that we're running nearly -5F below average so far this month, which is tied for the 37th coldest start to any April on record. We're about 13 of an inch above average in terms of precipitation, but nearly -1.0" below average in terms of snowfall.

Twin Cities April Weather Summary So Far (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Active Week of Weather

Here's the weather outlook from AM Monday to PM Sunday. The same storm that brought clouds and precipitation to the region on Easter Sunday will still be impacting us on Monday with lingering rain/snow showers and windy conditions. We'll get a brief break Tuesday before our next system moves in midweek with rain and more rain. There is another system that will be moving through with showers and possibly thunderstorms along with more wind. Temps will gradually warm through the week with above average temperatures possible by next weekend. Stay tuned...

Weather Outlook From AM Monday to PM Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the precipitation outlook through next weekend looks pretty impressive with some 1" to 2" liquid tallies possible across parts of the state. This includes the precipitation from Easter Sunday to next Sunday. Interestingly, some of the rain late week and into the weekend could be accompanied by thunder.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

2022 Official Ice Out Dates

Hey - Look at that! More and more lakes are going ice out in the southern part of the state. However, thanks to a chillier than average month of April so far, several lakes are going out a little later than average. Cedar Lake, Lake Nokomis and Medicine Lake in the metro are officially out. According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka typically goes ice out on April 13th, so we're already past that date. Look for more ice outs over the coming days and weeks. It won't be long now before the land of 10,000 unfrozen lakes returns!

2022 Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Ice Out Dates

We're still several weeks away from ice out across parts of the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.

Average Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 12, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. After a slow start to spring across much of the Southeast, spring is progressing more rapidly, arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Albany, NY is a week early. In western states, spring leaf out is patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom has also started to arrive in southern states, days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia."

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Monday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday shows lingering light precipitation potential. Light rain could mix with snow at times, especially north of the Twin Cities.

Monday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Monday shows temperature readings starting in the lower 30s in the morning and will warm to around 40F by the afternoon. Light rain or snow showers will be possible through the day, but no accumulations are expected in the Twin Cities. Winds will be quite strong with gusts up to near 40mph possible, which will make it feel more like the 20s & 30s much of the day.

Hourly Temps and Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Monday

Temps around the region on Monday will be nearly -15F to -20F below average across much of the region with record cold highs possible across parts of the Red River Valley. There will be lots of wind and lingering rain/snow showers.

Weather Outlook on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through early next week, shows well below average temperatures through midweek. Readings will be nearly -10F to -20F below average through Wednesday, but we'll be back to near average readings by the end of the week and possibly above average on Saturday!

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chilly and active weather in place through midweek. Lingering light rain/snow chances will continue Monday before another system arrives Wednesday with more rain. Late Friday into Saturday another system moves in with rain and thunder chances. Note that temps on Saturday could approach 70F in the metro. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the first half of the week. However, there's a nice warm up in place for the end of the week and weekend with temps at or above average for a change.

GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across across the southern and southwestern US. Meanwhile, continued cooler than average temperatures will be found along the northern tier of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather across the Northwest and High Plains. Drier weather will be in place in the Southwest and in the Great Lakes Region.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Spring is Malfunctioning
By Paul Douglas

Irritated. Humiliated. Despondent. Laughably awful. Such are the stages of spring in Minnesota, especially this year. I am reminded of what friends in Seattle shared with me years ago. "At some point you just learn to play in the rain" a friend hissed, smiling through gritted teeth. With an average of 155 days of rain every year, Seattle residents could wallow in self-pity, or shrug and live their lives, no matter the weather. PS: I hear that Minnesota is drier but noticeably colder.

A clipper turns on our malfunctioning wind machine again today with gusts over 30 mph. Rain arrives Wednesday and a surge of southern warmth and moisture may ignite a few thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday; the milder day of the weekend.

Flashes of warmth, interrupted by chronic chill. We are living up to our reputation. The Capital of Cold. Little Siberia (with better restaurants). Minne-snowda. But soon, weather amnesia will set in. Wait, we had a bad spring? A malfunctioning memory is a Minnesota coping skill.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Gusty, slow clearing. Winds: NW 15-35. High: 40.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy & windy. Winds: NW 15-30. Low: 27.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 45.

WEDNESDAY: Rain develops. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 46.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, better. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: 56.

FRIDAY: Milder with PM showers. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 42. High: 61.

SATURDAY: Mild with showers, strong T-storms. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.

SUNDAY: Some sunshine, windy and cooler. Winds: W 15-35. Wake-up: 45. High: 55.

This Day in Weather History

April 18th

2004: A strong cold front whips up winds of up to 55 miles an hour over southern Minnesota. The wind causes black clouds of soil to lift into the air, creating soil erosion and reduced visibility. Some old-timers remarked that it reminded them of the dust storms from the 1930's Dust Bowl era.

2002: Baseball-sized hail falls in Eagan, creating small craters in the soft ground and broken windows in apartments.

1977: A tornado touches down at the mouth of the Minnesota River.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

April 18th

Average High: 59F (Record: 89F set in 1985)

Average Low: 38F (Record: 21F set in 1953)

Record Rainfall: 1.04" set in 2004

Record Snowfall: 6.4" set in 2013

Twin Cities Almanac For April 18th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

April 18th

Sunrise: 6:22am

Sunset: 8:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 39 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 59 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 Hour & 53 Minutes

Moon Phase for April 18th at Midnight

2.5 Days After Full "Pink" Moon - April 16th at 1:55 p.m. CDT - The grass pink or wild ground phlox is one of the earliest widespread flowers of the spring. Other names were the Full Sprouting Grass Moon, the Egg Moon, and — among some tribes on the east coast — the Full Fish Moon, when the shad come upstream to spawn. In 2022 this is also the Paschal Full Moon; the first full moon after the spring equinox on March 20. The first Sunday following the Paschal Moon is Easter Sunday, which indeed will be observed the very next day on Sunday, April 17."

Moon Phase For April 16th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows lingering colder than average temps across the northern tier of the nation, the Central US and the Eastern US. Meanwhile folks from the Central Rockies to the Southwest will be above average.

National Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through midweek. Areas of rain and snow will push through the Great Lakes and Northeast through Tuesday. Meanwhile, another area of rain and snow will push through the Northwest and move out into the Central US by midweek.

Weather Outlook Through Tuesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found east of the Rockies and especially in the Midwest, where several inches of precipitation can't be ruled out. There will also be some heavier stuff along the West Coast, including snow potential.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across parts of the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest will be found in the high elevations in the western US as well and parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

ECWMF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The Wild, Uncertain Future of Carbon Dioxide Removal"

"A group of powerful companies on Monday announced a new venture to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Meta, Alphabet, Stripe, Shopify, and McKinsey are pledging together to buy $925 million worth of carbon removal over the next nine years, a move they say will create a market that will help develop needed technologies to get CO2 out of the air and the ocean. "Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change make clear there is currently no pathway to keeping global temperature increases within 1.5°C without permanently removing gigatons of CO₂ already present in the atmosphere and ocean," the release reads, adding that the move will send a "strong demand signal to researchers, entrepreneurs, and investors that there is a market for carbon removal."

"Understanding why our giant glaciers disappeared in the past gives clues to the future"

"An international team of climate scientists is working in North Canterbury to try to understand the reasons why giant glaciers disappeared thousands of years ago. Massive pre-historic glaciers once stood on the banks of Lake Tennyson, North Canterbury. But they no longer exist today. As glaciers retreat, they leave behind clues to their age in the form of sediment and boulders dropped by the ice as it melts. Called moraines, these piles of debris give us critical insights into Aotearoa New Zealand's climate history. Researchers from NIWA, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Maine, Lincoln University and GNS Science are studying the moraines around Lake Tennyson to work out why and when the glaciers disappeared. Climate scientist Dr. Andrew Lorrey is leading the work for NIWA. "We need to understand the changes that we see in this landscape that happened millennia ago, because from the chronologies that are emerging, it looks like this landscape changed really, really fast."

"Bumpy flight? Here's how clouds affect air travel"

"Bumpy flight: Clouds and air travel Sure, there's clear-air turbulence. But when your airplane ride gets bumpy, you're likely to look out your window and see clouds. They might range from puffy cumulus clouds, aka fair-weather clouds, to monstrous cumulonimbus with their characteristic anvil-shaped tops, billowing sides and ominously dark bases. The fact is … clouds are cooler than the surrounding air. So it's the contrast in density between clouds and the surrounding air that creates a sort of "pothole" in the sky, making for a less smooth ride. Weather and aircraft performance Mike Sueflohn has been a private and commercial pilot for more than 23 years. As a pilot, he must take part in recurrent training, where they discuss how weather relates to aircraft performance. Some of the issues they focus on are takeoffs, landings and concerns such as wind shear. Sueflohn told EarthSky: Much of the weather, including turbulence, that we have when flying is derived by the sun and uneven heating of Earth's surface. As a result, you can experience turbulence at any time. Normally, early in the morning and later in the evening and throughout the night you may find the best time for smooth rides."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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