Fortunately for the Twins, baseball statistics reflect the past, not predict the future. Because what were the chances that Kyle Farmer, whose last walkoff hit came in his MLB debut six years ago, would deliver a winning, bases-loaded, 10th-inning single Friday?
The Twins were 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in the first nine innings, 0-for-8 with the bases loaded this season and 0-for-6 in beating the Astros over the past year. Yet Farmer ended streak after streak after streak by cracking a fastball up the middle, a hard ground ball that split the defense and drove home Trevor Larnach to earn a raucous 3-2 victory over the 2022 World Series champions.
Or so he's told.
"Honestly, I didn't see it because of the shadows" that creep through Target Field in late afternoon, Farmer said. "I knew I hit it OK and it got past the pitcher."
It got past the shortstop and second baseman, too, exactly the sort of perfectly placed hit that the Twins have frequently lacked in an otherwise strong start to 2023. The announced sellout crowd of 38,465 roared in delight, Farmer was mobbed by teammates and the Twins won their home opener for the fifth time in six seasons.
"Probably one of the loudest Opening Days I've ever had," said Byron Buxton, who scored the tying run moments earlier, on Jose Miranda's third single of the day. "To be able to go out and get an electric win like that was something for us to build off of, not just today but for the whole season."
He's probably a little overexuberant there, given that 155 games remain. But if Sonny Gray and the rest of the rotation continues dominating like it has in these first seven games, Buxton might be on to something.
Gray handcuffed the Astros and extended the rotation's unbroken streak of solid starts this season. The righthander struck out 13, including five in a row at one point, giving him a career high and eclipsing José Berríos (10 in 2019) and Bert Blyleven (10 in 1974) for the most ever in a Twins home opener.