Some Rain Chances Over The Next Week, But Mostly Dry Weekend For The Metro

Unfortunately, the drought has mostly continued to get worse across the state of Minnesota over the past week, even with some of the rain that we have received. D2 Severe Drought has expanded into the east metro and around the Rochester area and now covers ~8.5% of the state (up from ~4.9% last week). At least Abnormally Dry conditions cover almost the entire state (~98%).

We did see some improvement week-to-week in parts of Northeastern Minnesota in areas that saw at least 1-2" above average precipitation over the past week. Otherwise, only degradation occurred once again - focused in parts of southern and north-central/northeast Minnesota.

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While we will see generally sunny skies to a mix of sun and clouds on Saturday here in the metro, I'm not ruling out a potential spotty shower or storm, especially earlier in the day. Morning temperatures will be in the low 60s with highs climbing to around 80F.

While I can't rule out a spotty shower or storm across southern Minnesota Saturday, a mix of sun and clouds to mainly sunny skies is generally expected for most of the day across the state. Highs range from the 60s along the North Shore to near 80F in southern Minnesota.

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Sunday: Mainly sunny skies are expected in the metro, but we will watch afternoon/overnight storms across northern Minnesota that could be strong. It'll be the warmest day of the weekend with temperatures climbing back into the mid-80s.

As mentioned above, a few storms on Sunday could be strong, with mainly a damaging wind threat. I think storm activity mainly stays north of the metro until maybe the early morning hours on Monday.

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MSP: 5th Warmest Summer So Far - Some Rain Chances
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

The Earth is running a fever right now, thanks to climate change and a growing El Niño. According to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the global average temperature Thursday was 63.01F, the warmest on record (back to 1979). The previous records were set earlier this week (62.92F both Tuesday and Wednesday and 62.62F on Monday). Experts say this record could be broken more times this summer.

Here in the metro, this summer (since June 1st) is running warmer than average by 4.6F, making it the fifth warmest June 1st to July 6th on record. This is leading to higher cooling bills. The measurement of "cooling degree days" - a calculation of how much warmer the daily average temperature is versus a standard temperature of 65F - is running about 1.73 times above normal for the year to date.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Spotty rain? Sun/cloud mix. Wake up 64. High 80. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Strong PM northern MN storms. Wake up 58. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-15 mph.

MONDAY: Hot. Scattered PM storms. Wake up 67. High 90. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind WSW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Additional disorganized storms. Wake up 63. High 81. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Dry with more sun than clouds. Wake up 60. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Late day storm potential. Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 8th

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 8th

2002: A three-day deluge ends in central Minnesota with 10 inches in northern Kanabec county and 9.5 inches in southwest Aitkin County.

1974: Minnesota experiences an intense heat wave, with the Twin Cities reaching 101, the warmest temperature in 26 years.

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At least 3" of rain could fall from Friday into the weekend from southern Kansas to portions of the Deep South. In some areas, this could lead to flash flooding. Some spotty areas of the Northeast could also see up to 3" of rain.

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Earth saw hottest day yet Thursday, the fourth straight global record

Chart Credit: Climate Reanalyzer

More from Axios: "Earth recorded its hottest day on record on Thursday, making it the fourth straight to set or tie the record for warmest day globally. Why it matters: The daily records are a symptom of the heat that human emissions of greenhouse gases are adding to the climate, combined with an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. By the numbers: The NOAA data shows the global average temperature climbed to an unprecedented 17.23°C (63.02°F) on Thursday. This was 1.02°C (1.8°F) above the average for the date, and an increase from the previous record-holder of 17.18°C (62.9°F) set just one day before. The period from July 3 through 6 is now the hottest four days on record globally. The global mean temperature statistic masks the extreme events taking place worldwide. These include an unprecedented marine heat wave in the North Atlantic, a recently concluded long-duration heat wave in Texas and Mexico, record heat in China, plus extreme heat and wildfires still raging out of control in Canada."

More from Canary Media: "Enphase, the pioneering solar microinverter company, has begun its first U.S. manufacturing at a factory in West Columbia, South Carolina. Contract manufacturer Flex owns and operates the facility, which now produces Enphase's IQ8 microinverter, a device used to turn solar panel output from direct current to alternating current that can power homes and businesses. President Joe Biden traveled to the factory Thursday to recognize yet another instance of a U.S.-based clean energy company onshoring its manufacturing following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. The law's 45X provision awards tax credits of 11 cents per watt of capacity for microinverters produced in the U.S. Enphase credited the IRA and strong global demand for making the new U.S. factories possible and said the West Columbia factory will create 600 jobs."

U.S. carbon emissions fall for first time in Biden era

More from E&E News: "Global carbon dioxide emissions were roughly flat through the first five months of the year, with rising greenhouse gas production from China and India offsetting deep declines in emissions from the United States and Europe. The findings from Carbon Monitor, an academic emissions tracker, are consistent with experts' view that the world is entering a period of plateauing emissions. They think a rise in clean energy generation will be offset by growth in total global energy demand. Carbon Monitor estimates global CO2 emissions were 15.1 billion tons through the end of May, or 0.3 percent higher than the same time last year. Emissions were 1.6 percent higher than that same five month period in 2019, prior to the onset of Covid-19."

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- D.J. Kayser