Snow Mainly Across Northern Minnesota Early Sunday - Rollercoaster Temperatures Continue

On Sunday, we will be watching a cold front quickly passing through the region, bringing a burst of snow along with it. The greatest chances of seeing snow through Saturday night into Sunday morning will be across northern Minnesota with flurries possible as you head south. Some of the snow could linger into the early afternoon hours in northern parts of the state.

It's those areas that see snow linger a bit longer across northern Minnesota that have the highest potential of seeing half an inch to inch of snow.

So again, the best chance of snow will be across portions of northern Minnesota on Sunday, with sunnier skies working across southern Minnesota during the day. It'll be cooler than what we saw on Saturday, with highs only in the 20s and 30s on Sunday across the state - up to 10F degrees below average.

Looking at the Twin Cities on Sunday, we have that slight chance of a snow shower or flurries during the first few hours of the day, otherwise, clouds will be on the decrease. Temperatures won't budge much in the Twin Cities throughout the midday hours, slowly starting to drop off through the afternoon.

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Friday was another breezy day across the region, with wind gusts in the 30 and 40 mph range across central and southern Minnesota. The peak wind gust Friday in the Twin Cities was 33 mph out of the south.

It's been quite a breezy month in the Twin Cities with six out of 19 days so far observing wind gusts of at least 40 mph - including three days during the middle of this past week. Ten of the 19 days have had wind gusts of at least 30 mph.

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It'll be a cool Sunday and Monday with highs only in the low and mid-30s, but with that next system moving in highs will climb into the mid-40s Tuesday and Wednesday. As we head into Thanksgiving Thursday - behind that system - temperatures will once again drop to the low 30s for highs.

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Looking at Thanksgiving Day, while highs are expected to get into the low 30s in the metro temperatures will mainly stay in the 20s during the day. With a stronger northwest wind, it could feel more like the teens.

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The older I get the less I take for granted. Like a quiet, drama-free stretch of weather in late November.

According to the Minnesota DNR 1 in 5 Thanskgivings bring measurable snow. The last time we had a coating in the metro: 1.3" on Thanksgiving Day, 2015. For the record, about 1 in 3 Turkey Days have at least an inch of snow on the ground.

A chilly Thursday is shaping up, but nothing like 2014, when we awoke to -4F at MSP, with a daytime "high" of 10F. Ouch.

I see no weather drama anytime soon and our snow drought continues. A handful of clippers will kick up a few flakes (and sprinkles) the next 2 weeks, but the pattern remains unfavorable for big storms of any flavor.

Nanook air remains bottled up over Canada, with a few spurts of nippy air. Looking ahead I see more highs in the 40s than days in the 30s. So a continuation of November Lite.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Windy. Flurries up north. Wake up 28. High 37. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY: Some sun, chilly. Wake up 18. High 31. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and milder. Wake up 24. High 45. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: More clouds than sun, chilly. Wake up 19. High 31. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, good shopping weather. Wake up 21. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, almost pleasant. Wake up 26. High 43. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 21st

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight? December 3rd (8 hours, 58 minutes, and 44 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At Or After 7:30 AM: November 30th (7:30 AM)
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: 4:31 PM between December 5th and December 14th

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This Day in Weather History
November 21st

2001: Record highs are set in west and north central Minnesota, ranging from the upper fifties to lower sixties. Redwood Falls set their high with 68 degrees Fahrenheit and Little Falls had a high of 65 degrees.

1980: On this date, around 28 thousand Canadian geese spent their nights on Silver Lake in Rochester.

As a cold front drives east on Sunday, showers and storms will be possible from southern Texas into the Northeast, with rain/snow across the Great Lakes and portions of New England. Heading west? You should see mainly dry weather.

The heaviest rain through Monday will be across portions of the eastern United States where some areas could see 1-2" of rainfall (with heavier amounts in southern Florida). A few inches of snow will be possible out toward the Rockies and in the Great Lakes.

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Corps continues winter drawdown at its Headwaters reservoirs

More from the Brainerd Dispatch: "The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District, continues to lower water elevations within its six Mississippi River Headwaters reservoirs in anticipation of winter conditions. Gull Lake near Brainerd is at 1,193.76 feet. The outflow is at 195 cubic feet per second. The lake level is about 3 inches below the summer target range. Cross Lake near Crosslake is at 1,228.64 feet, and outflow is at 570 cubic feet per second. The target drawdown elevation is approximately 1,228.3 at the end of November."

More from Gizmodo: "The U.S. recently passed a $1 trillion bipartisan spending bill aimed at improving and repairing the country's decaying infrastructure, but a new report on flooding risks resulting from climate change warns even more investment might be needed. Within the next 30 years, sea level rise and more intense downpours could put around 26% of U.S. roads underwater on the regular. Nearly 40,000 critical infrastructure facilities, including airports, fire stations, and hospitals, may be at risk of flooding as well. Those are just a few of the dire findings within a recently released, multiyear analysis conducted last month by nonprofit group First Street Foundation. The report found there are already around 2 million miles (3.2 million kilometers) of U.S. roads at risk today, and another 200,000 miles (320,000 kilometers) will be put in the danger zone in the coming decades."

Groundwater in California's Central Valley may be unable to recover from past and future droughts

More from the AGU: "Groundwater in California's Central Valley is at risk of being depleted by pumping too much water during and after droughts, according to a new study in the AGU journal Water Resources Research, an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. The new study shows groundwater storage recovery has been dismal after the state's last two droughts, with less than a third of groundwater recovered from the drought that spanned 2012 to 2016. Under a best-case scenario where drought years are followed by consecutive wet years with above-average precipitation, the researchers found there is a high probability it would take six to eight years to fully recover overdrafted water, which occurs when more groundwater is pumped out than is supplied through all sources like precipitation, irrigation and runoff."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).