We've had minimal snowfall across the region this season and thanks to warmer than average temperatures at points during November and into the early part of December, any snow that we've had has pretty much melted. At this time last year, there was 5" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.

It has been a pretty slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Could this be a sign of El Nino? Perhaps. The storm track in an El Nino season is typically draped across the Southern US, while milder temperatures reside across the Midwest, both of which have been observed over the last several weeks. There are a lot of negative seasonal snow numbers across the region with the biggest deficits showing up in Duluth, MN (16th least snowy start to any season on record) and also in Marquette, which is nearly -24" below average (5th least snowy start to any season on record).

Our average snowfall in the Twin Cities through the months of October and November is typically around 6" to 7". Note that the Twin Cities has only had 3.2" so far this season (since July 1st), which is nearly -5" below average. Duluth has only had 3.0" of snow this season, which is nearly -15" below average and the 16th least snowy start to any season on record.

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Here's the weather outlook through next Monday, which shows slightly more active weather across the Midwest, but still minimal snowfall potential across the state. A weak clipper will dive through the region late Monday and early Tuesday with a light rain/snow mix.

The snowfall outlook Through Tuesday shows minimal snowfall potential. There could be a minor coating across the far southern part of the state, but most locations will stay snow free for now.

Heavy rains during the month of September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 39% nearly 3 months ago.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the upper 20d in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies later in the day. There could be a flurry later in the, but the threat remains low. Southerly winds will be around 10mph to 15mph.

The weather outlook for Monday will warm into the 30s across the much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Areas of light snow will possible across the southern part of the state late in the day, but amounts will be minimal.

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be warmer than average with readings warming into the mid/upper 30s and into the 40s later next week. The first full week of December will be nearly +5F to nearly +20F above average for the beginning of December. The warmest day will be Thursday when highs approach 50F, which is very rare for November.

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis through the first full week of December looks very mild with temperatures warming into the 30s and 40s. There could be a little light rain/snow on Monday, but much of the week ahead will be dry. Incredibly, highs could approach 50F by Thursday. Note that in 139 years of record keeping, the MSP Airport has only hit 50F or warmer in the month of December 84 times. This too is a very rare occurrence, happening less than 2% of December days.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the first part of December. With a lack of snow on the ground, the sun's energy will go into warming the atmosphere, which will be quite efficient this week. With a warmer than average temperature spell moving in, temperatures could warm into the 40s and possibly close to 50F at points over the next 5-10 days. Enjoy! We're still waiting for the other boot to drop, which it will at some point. Don't let your guard down.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Western US.

Pro-tip: if you're going snowmobiling anytime soon borrow a friend's sled. A friend you don't like very much. It's brown up in the Brainerd Lakes area, where we've been walking around in sweatshirts and sneakers. Boots and gloves optional. You may be from Minnesota if you've ever uttered "Hey it's in the 30s! Doesn't feel so bad."

30s are OK. 40s in December are a hoot-worthy epiphany. We should see 40s almost every day this week, with an outside shot at 50F Thursday. That's 10-20F warmer than average, statewide. Cooler air (mostly 30s) returns by mid-December, but arctic air? Not so much.

A clipper may kick up a few flakes tonight. Next weekend's snowy opportunities have evaporated with a storm tracking south of Minnesota once again. Get used to it. It may become a habit much of December.

MONDAY: Clouds, flakes tonight Winds: S 8-13. High: 40.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow early. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 29.

TUESDAY: Becoming partly sunny. Winds: NW 10-15. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Some sun, milder than average. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High 44.

THURSDAY: SBlue sky, mildest day of the week. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High 49.

SATURDAY: Cool sunshine. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High 37.

SUNDAY: Chilled sun, storm stays south again. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 23. High 33.

December 4th

1886: Minneapolis hits a record-setting 15 degrees below zero.

December 4th

Average Low: 19F (Record: -15F set in 1886)

Record Rainfall: 0.58" set in 1877

Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947

December 4th

Sunrise: 7:33am

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 58 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 21 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 49 Minutes

1.0 Day After Last Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Monday will generally be warmer than average across much of the nation, especially in the Western US, where readings could be nearly +10F to +15F above average.

The National Weather outlook through Tuesday keeps unsettled weather in place across the northern tier of the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be found across the Pacific Northwest with areas of heavy rain along the coast.

The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Eastern US. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Northwestern US with several inches of rain and flooding in the coastal communities with high elevation snow possible.

According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across the high elevations in the Western US, where a number of winter weather headlines are in place. We could see a decent push of snow across the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes, but there is still a lot of uncertainty between now and then.

"Man-made global warming exacerbated an incident of extreme flooding and heat in eastern China in 2020, according to a study released Wednesday, which highlighted the need to prepare for increasingly intense episodes of such weather in the country. Researchers said that warming created by human activity caused an increase in rain that summer by around 6.5 percent, and increased heat by around one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Record rains fell in June and July around the lower part of the Yangtze River during the monsoon, causing the deaths of more than 100 people and billions of dollars in damage, said the study published in the journal Science Advances."

See more from Phys.org HERE:

See more from Axios HERE:

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