Thursday Snow And Ice Potential

Forecast loop from Midnight Wednesday Night to 6 AM Friday.

As we head into Wednesday Night and Thursday, we are watching a system moving through the upper Midwest that could bring a wintry mix of precipitation along with it. Some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible tonight into Thursday. As the cold front approaches Thursday afternoon and evening, we will see snow chances increase into the overnight hours.

We will see at least some accumulating ice (mainly less than a tenth of an inch) into Thursday across mainly southern and northeastern Minnesota. However, it would not be surprising to see at least some slight glazing outside of areas marked with "accumulating" ice in the graphic above. This icing will continue to lead to slick surfaces.

A band of 1-3" of snow is expected to fall from southwestern Minnesota to the Arrowhead as we head through Thursday and Thursday Night, with that band falling just northwest of the metro.

As we watch that freezing drizzle/freezing rain chance eventually change over to snow by the evening hours, highs across the state will range from the teens near the Red River Valley to the 30s from the North Shore south across central and southern Minnesota. If you miss out on the precipitation, cloudy skies are expected.

We'll watch that wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow during the day in the metro, changing over to snow late in the afternoon hours. Temperatures aren't expected to budge much during the day - staying in the low to mid-30s.

_______________________________________________

30s To End 2022, Begin 2023

As we head into the last few days of 2022, it won't be too bad across the region to ring in the New Year. Sunny skies are expected for Friday with highs right around 30F. We climb back into the 30s for Saturday with mainly cloudy skies (and the potential of a snow shower in the evening - more on that in a moment). The first day of 2023 looks cloudy with highs in the low 30s as well.

As we head toward the evening hours on New Year's Eve, a spare snow shower could be around the region, but it doesn't look like it would accumulate to much. It should clear out in time to ring in 2023, with mainly cloudy skies at midnight and temperatures around freezing.

_______________________________________________

Storm Early Next Week?

Meanwhile, we are tracking the potential of a storm in the Monday-Tuesday time frame next week to begin the new year. The track of this low is going to be crucial, as a more northern track (which the American shows above) brings more rain to the metro and snow/ice to northern Minnesota, and a more southern track (as the European shows) brings the snow and ice chances to southern Minnesota. We'll keep an eye on this for the next several days to see which one "wins" out.

_______________________________________________

Potential For A Big Storm Early Next Week
By Paul Douglas

As I've been carefully explaining to my wife for 38 years "Keep your expectations low and maybe, just maybe, you'll be pleasantly surprised". We have reached the stage of winter where 30s are eliciting comments like "It's not so bad out there!" and "Paul this feels amazing!" Yes it does. Factoring wind chill, yesterday felt 60-70 degrees warmer than last week, the first thaw in the metro area since December 15. It doesn't take much to make us happy in late December.

For the record 19.4" snow has fallen at MSP this month, the 12th snowiest December since 1883. Our pattern looks snowy into early January with highs in the 20s and 30s (above zero). I consider that a "win". A little rain today ends as a coating of slush tonight. Expect a dry Friday with flurries mainly north of MSP New Year's Eve. Just dribs and drabs of snow.

A more significant (plowable) snowfall is possible late Monday into Tuesday, but it's too early to tell where the axis of heaviest snow will set up. Hey, we're in a bad drought. Let it snow!

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Light rain ends as slush. Wake up 31. High 34. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 3-8 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Wake up 12. High 25. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries north. Wake up 22. High 32. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, good travel. Wake up 19. High 31. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy, snow arrives late PM. Wake up 21. High 28. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Potential for plowable snowfall. Wake up 27. High 31. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NE 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries. Wake up 25. High 28. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 29th

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 48 minutes, and 39 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 35 seconds

*When do we see 9 Hours of Daylight?: January 9th (9 hours, 0 minutes, 8 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise: December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 5 PM?: January 17th (5:00 PM)

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
December 29th

1999: Minneapolis soars to a high temperature of 53 degrees.

_______________________________________________

National Weather Forecast

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will impact areas from the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley, with an additional cold front bringing snow in across the upper Midwest. A system out west will bring a mess of rain and snow to the region.

Through Friday evening, over 3" of rain could fall across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and along portions of the West Coast. It'll be the western mountains that see the heaviest snow, where several feel could pile up through the end of the year.

_______________________________________________

Venus and Mercury pair up on December 28

More from EarthSky: "Venus and Mercury have been getting closer in our sky for a few weeks. And today, December 28, 2022, they're at their closest. Their conjunction happens at 9 UTC on December 29, 2022. That's when Mercury will sweep 1.4 degrees north of Venus on our sky's dome. And that's about the width of three full moons. But don't worry about that exact time. No matter where you are on Earth, the time to look for them is after sunset. You'll find them low in the west, near the sunset point. The pair is in bright twilight. If you can't see Mercury, aim binoculars at Venus to view Mercury and Venus in a single binocular field. Also, you can spot the ringed planet, Saturn, nearby in the evening twilight sky."

Devastating disasters and flickers of hope: These are the top climate and weather stories of 2022

More from CNN: "From a small island in Polynesia to the white-sand beaches of Florida, the planet experienced a dizzying number of climate and extreme weather disasters in 2022. Blistering summer heat broke records in drought-stricken China, threatening lives and food production. In the United States, drought and sea level rise clashed at the mouth of the historically low Mississippi River. And in South Africa, climate change made rainfall that triggered deadly floods heavier and twice as likely to occur. Yet against the backdrop of these catastrophic events, this year also sparked some glimmers of hope"

2022 was a historic year for climate change policies. What's next for 2023?

More from Phys.org: "2022 was a landmark year for climate change action—and repercussions. President Biden signed the historic Inflation Reduction Act to boost clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the midst of the hottest August on record for North America and Europe. Following a summer of historic flooding that put one-third of Pakistan under water, the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP27 in November recommitted to the goals set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and agreed to help countries most vulnerable to climate change."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on:

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser