Showers Across Southern Minnesota Sunday - Better Rain Chance Mid-Week

It was another cold start across the state on Saturday with most locations dropping into the 20s and low 30s. The Twin Cities dropped to 31F, marking the first official freeze of the season. The last time the temperatures dropped to/below 32F was back on April 21st (29F).

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We won't start off as cold Sunday morning as lows only dip into the mid/upper 30s in the Twin Cities, but we will see more clouds in the sky as we head throughout the day. As we head into the afternoon hours a few showers will be possible, but the better chance of seeing rain will be south of the metro. Highs will climb into the low 50s.

40s to low 50s are expected across the state Sunday with rain chances across southern Minnesota (maybe mixing in with a snowflake early in the day out in western Minnesota). As you head farther north, we're still expecting more clouds than sun but no precipitation chances.

Looking at the precipitation forecast, the best chance of seeing accumulating rain will be south of the metro across southern Minnesota. Down by the Minnesota/Iowa border up to half an inch of rain will be possible.

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As we head into next week highs are expected to remain in the 50s in the Twin Cities - within a few degrees of average. While models are showing the potential of a few 60s in the metro toward the end of the month, it appears 70s are likely done for the year.

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We are tracking a system toward the middle of the week that looks to bring some beneficial rains to the region in the Tuesday Night to Thursday time frame. Right now a chunk of the state could see at least an inch of rain fall. We'll continue to keep an eye on this as we head through the next few days. But for now, expect a wet Wednesday.

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2021: Hot And Dry But Relatively Quiet

By Paul Douglas

I'm reminded of an old saying that seems appropriate in 2021: "When a dog bites a man that's not news. But if a man bites a dog that's news." My dog, Leo, is staring at me right now. Good boy.

Dreadful weather tends to grab headlines and "make news" but the sunny, serene days? Yawn. Crickets. I can't remember a year so sunny and pleasant in Minnesota. Here's some good news: there were fewer tornadoes this year, no "mega-rains" and less hail overall. June was stinking hot and I'm not downplaying this year's severe drought, but 2021 has been an epiphany for anyone who likes to spend time outdoors.

Clouds increase today with rain brushing far southern counties. Our next chance of rain comes Wednesday and Thursday, and amounts may be significant. Models predict highs near 60F next Saturday with 50s for Halloween and a chance of rain late in the day. November kicks off with highs in the 40s - just chilly enough for a few flakes.

Our weather won't be making news anytime soon. Celebrate the small victories.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Cloudier, rain southern MN. Wake up 37. High 50. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 37. High 52. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, fine fall day. Wake up 38. High 58. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers arrive, possible thunder. Wake up 44. High 53. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Showers taper, late clearing. Wake up 45. High 52. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, quiet. Wake up 41. High 55. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Mild sunshine, nicer day of weekend. Wake up 42. High 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 24th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 31 minutes, and 35 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 55 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10.5 Hours Of Daylight? October 25th (10 hours, 28 minutes, and 41 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before Time Change: November 6th (7:58 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM?: November 1st (6:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
October 24th

1922: A powerful low pressure system over Minnesota brings 55 mph winds to Collegeville.

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We will be watching a couple of systems on Sunday across the nation. The first, in the central United States, will produce showers and storms (with maybe some mixed snow in the upper Midwest). This system will also produce severe storms in the central and southern Plains. Out west, an strong atmosphere river event will occur with lots of heavy rain and mountain snow.

While over three inches of rain will be possible over the next few days from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley, the heaviest rain (and snow) will be out across portions of southern Oregon into California.

Across portions of California, rainfall amounts of up to 10" will be possible. This could lead to flash flooding and, in burn scar areas, mudslides and debris flows. In the Sierra, at least 1-3 feet of snow could fall.

And across the central United States Sunday we will be watching the threat of severe weather with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather in place. All severe threats will be possible across this region.

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U.S. government agency in charge of financial stability weighs in on climate change risks

More from CNBC: "The Treasury Department's Financial Stability Oversight Council on Thursday released a report assessing the risks a changing climate poses to the U.S. financial system and providing recommendations for protecting the economy. The council issued the report in response to President Joe Biden's executive order on Jan. 27 that directed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the head of the FSOC, and financial regulators to produce a report on climate-related financial risk data. The blueprint could potentially move forward new regulations and oversight related to climate-based financial risk on Wall Street."

White House unveils landmark reports on climate links to security, migration

More from Axios: "The Biden administration on Thursday released a sweeping set of assessments on climate change's threat to national security and its role in fueling migration. Why it matters: One of the key products, a formal National Intelligence Estimate on climate change, marks the first time all 18 elements of the U.S. intelligence community have released a consensus report on the topic. Separately, an analysis of the impact climate change is having on migration will "mark the first time the U.S. government is officially recognizing and reporting on" the connection, a senior administration official said. The "central recommendation" of the climate and migration report is to establish an interagency policy process, which had not previously existed, the official added."

Plastics poised to overtake coal as climate driver

More from E&E News: "Plastics production is on track to become a major source in driving climate change, according to a report out today that finds the industry will outpace coal in greenhouse gas emissions within a decade.The findings, which stem from a project with Bennington College in Vermont and the environmental group Beyond Plastics, show that the U.S. plastics industry is quickly gaining on more traditional sources of greenhouse gas emissions and that plastics are already a significant source, with the petrochemical industry rapidly growing."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser