Southern Minnesota Showers Saturday
Forecast loop from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday.
As an upper-level low remains across portions of Canada, we will see an area of low-pressure move across the upper Midwest as we head into Saturday, bringing the threat of some showers and maybe an isolated storm or two. The best chances will be during the morning and midday hours across southern Minnesota (mainly Twin Cities southward), but a few pop-up afternoon showers/storms will be possible from central Minnesota southward.
Looking statewide at your first Saturday of June, we once again watch those shower and isolated thunderstorm chances mainly from central Minnesota southward, with partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions otherwise in these areas. As you head farther north, more sunshine is expected. Highs will generally be in the 60s across the state, with some cooler readings possible along the North Shore and a few 70s possible in portions of northern Minnesota where that sunshine is observed.
Breaking it down hour-by-hour for the Twin Cities, as the model above showed the best timing for showers would be during the morning and midday hours on Saturday. However, we still can't rule out a few more pop-up showers and maybe a rumble or two or thunder later in the afternoon. Morning temperatures start off in the mid-50s with highs in the mid-60s.
_______________________________________________
Another Rain Shot Late Sunday/Sunday Night
Forecast loop from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.
As another little system moves into the region, we will once again watch the chance of a few showers or a rumble of thunder across the southern half of the state and up into the Arrowhead during the afternoon and evening/overnight hours.
Even with that late-day rain chance in the metro, we will see warmer temperatures on Sunday with highs reaching the low 70s. Cooler weather will be in place across northern Minnesota with 50s and 60s expected. Once again that best chance of rain will be in southern/central Minnesota, thankfully avoiding areas that have been hard-hit by ongoing flooding in northern parts of the state.
_______________________________________________
60s And 70s For The Foreseeable Future
As we head through this first weekend of June and into the second week of the month, temperatures will remain several degrees below average with highs only in the 60s and 70s. I will say I won't be complaining - I love to keep that electrical bill lower during the summer months! More scattered showers and isolated thunder chances will occur as we head into next week, but no severe weather is expected at the moment (another reason to thank the cooler weather!).
Looking farther out, models do show the potential of another warm-up in store as we head toward the middle of the month, with 80s and even 90s possible. Models have been hopping the timeframe around on when this could occur, so confidence in exact timing is low at the moment - but there does seem to be a trend toward warmer (beach-worthy?) weather for the middle of the month.
_______________________________________________
Ongoing Flooding Up North
The water continues to rise up in Northern Minnesota in the Rainy River Basin with historic flooding already ongoing. You can read and get more information on the situation from the Star Tribune and from the NWS Duluth.
_______________________________________________
Comfortable Weather Lingers - Odds of Hot Summer?
By Paul Douglas
Apparently some like it hot. Many others do not. With a cool bias into next week (60s and 70s) I'm hearing grumbling. "Paul, will we get CHEATED out of a real summer?" Last summer was the hottest on record for much of Minnesota, so odds are it won't be as hot overall.
Paul at Star Tribune (no relation) said "It's 75 and dry in June. It doesn't get better than this with the AC off." He has a point.
Senior State Climatologist Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld told me that when we have 2 or more 90s in May the average number of REMAINING 90-degree days is 20.5, looking at historical data. There is a strong correlation between May heat surges and a hot summer to follow. We shall see.
Expect a surge of 80s by mid-June but no extended heatwaves are brewing anytime soon.
Most rain bands stay south of MSP today; the weather may turn out better than expected (which is always acceptable). Comfortable weather spills into next week with 70s and a few midweek showers. Probably too cool and stable for anything severe.
_______________________________________________
Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: Some sun, showers south. Wake up 56. High 70. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunnier and milder. Wake up 53. High 74. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, cooling breeze. Wake up 51. High 69. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Some sun, risk of a T-shower. Wake up 54. High 70. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind E 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Wake up 57. High 68. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 54. High 70. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny and mild. Few complaints. Wake up 57. High 75. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
_______________________________________________
Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 4th
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 26 minutes, and 47 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 13 seconds
*When Do We See 15.5 Hours Of Daylight: June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, 3 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrise?: June 13 - June 17 (5:25 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)
_______________________________________________
This Day in Weather History
June 4th
1935: The latest official measurable snowfall in Minnesota falls at Mizpah on this date with 1.5 inches.
_______________________________________________
National Weather Forecast
The main story Saturday will be Potential Tropical Cyclone One (potentially called Tropical Storm Alex if it can get its act together) passing across Florida with heavy rain, gusty winds, and a few tornadoes. Rain and storm chances will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the central United States, as well as in New England.
The heaviest rain through Sunday evening will fall across parts of the Florida Peninsula, where 4-8"+ could fall due to our tropical system moving through the region. Heavier rain will also be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Midwest.
_______________________________________________
Latest On One
We have been keeping an eye on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which has not been getting better organized over the past 24 or so hours (as of 4 PM CT Friday).
This system - whether or not it becomes a tropical entity - will be reaching Florida as we head into the midday hours on Saturday. If it does become a tropical storm, its name would be Alex. Due to the potential it becomes a tropical storm, Tropical Storm Warnings are in place across western Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas.
The main story with this system will be heavy rain with some areas of southern Florida expected to pick up at least 4-8" of rain through Saturday that could lead to flooding.
_______________________________________________
CenterPoint, Xcel move forward with 'green' hydrogen pilot projects
More from the Star Tribune: "CenterPoint Energy has launched its inaugural foray into producing "green" hydrogen, a natural-gas substitute free of carbon emissions. The company's hydrogen plant in Minneapolis, which uses renewable energy, is small — a foot in the water for CenterPoint. But it's a harbinger of a much-ballyhooed technology that could help battle climate change if it can overcome its challenges. "This is one tool to help with decarbonization," said John Heer, director of storage and peak shaving at CenterPoint. "We intend to figure out the best way forward to make this a more pervasive technology.""
The US's New Record in Renewables, Explained in Three Charts
More from Inside Climate News: "To make a swift transition to a cleaner grid, the United States needs to set records for renewable electricity generation pretty much every single quarter. So far in 2022, the numbers are encouraging. From January to March, renewable energy power plants generated 242,956 gigawatt-hours, which was 23.5 percent of U.S. electricity generation, both records—an increase from 19.5 percent in the first quarter of 2021, and 20.8 percent in the full year. The growth was thanks in part to more than 80 new wind and solar plants that went online during the quarter. The figures are from the Energy Information Administration. But before you celebrate, it's important to note that reaching new highs is expected in our rapidly changing energy economy. The thing to pay attention to is the size of the gains, said Michelle Solomon, a policy analyst for the think tank Energy Innovation."
Manchin's bipartisan energy talks crumble, paving way for Democrat-only deal
More from Axios: "Bipartisan Senate energy talks led by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are essentially over, with Republican senators convinced that Manchin is close to a reconciliation deal with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), according to people familiar with the matter. Why it matters: The death of the bipartisan approach will allow Manchin and Schumer to focus on a potential deal that includes green energy tax credits and the tax increases to pay for them. But any deal will also need 49 other Senate Democrats, including the support of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who hasn't been directly involved in the Manchin and Schumer negotiations. Any Senate package will also need buy-in from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Biden."
_______________________________________________
Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
