Weather Outlook Ahead
The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to AM Monday shows pretty quiet weather continuing across much of the Upper Midwest, which is great news for Holiday Travelers this week and weekend ahead. Other than a little bit of light precipitation here and there, there doesn't appear to be any major storm systems brewing anytime soon. However, winds will be a bit strong at times over the next several days.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook continues to show very little precipitation potential across the state. With that being said, there doesn't appear to be much snow potential anytime soon.
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 3% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 50% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 88% 3 months ago. Nearly 52% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -6.00" below average since January 1st, which is the 50th driest January 1st - November 22nd on record.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
Tuesday will be a mild and breezy day with a high temperature approaching 50F. The good news is that we will have more sunshine than Monday, which will be nice. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the south with gusts approaching 30mph.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming from the mid 20s in the morning to the upper upper 40s to near 50F in the afternoon. Southerly winds will be quite strong through the day with gusts will be nearly 30mph.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
High temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into the 40s and 50s across the state with some near 60F readings in the SW. Interestingly, this will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for mid/late November.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook through the week ahead shows well above average temperatures on Tuesday & Wednesday. However, we'll go well below average on Thanksgiving Day Thursday with highs only warming into the mid 20s for the Twin Cities. We get back to near average again by Saturday with highs back in the upper 30s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Remarkably, the extended forecast for Minneapolis doesn't show any major precipitation potential anytime soon. It appears that November will end mostly dry with a continuing temperature roller coaster.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, readings will be above average Tuesday & Wednesday before a bigger cool down on Thursday. However, note the gradual warming trend as we approaching the weekend and early next week with well above average temperatures returning.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows well above average temperatures across much of the nation, including the the Upper Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dry weather will be found from the Central & Southern Plains to the East Coast. Meanwhile, wet weather will be found in the Northwest and may trickle into the High Plains.
Pacific Air Flavors Weather Next 2 Weeks
By Paul Douglas
"Be thankful for what you have; you ll end up having more. If you concentrate on what you don't have, you will never, ever have enough." I can't believe I'm quoting Oprah, but there it is.
There is so much to be anxious about and fearful of as we approaching Thanksgiving, but I'm trying to focus on the good things. Starting and ending every day with a spirit of gratitude helps me weather the storms and vicissitudes of life in 2021.
I'm pro-snow (especially nights and weekends) but somewhat relieved to be stuck in such a quiet, drama-free pattern. We mellow into the 40s today, with a shot at 40F Wednesday before cooling off Thanksgiving Day. Flurries are possible Friday with a clippery mix of rain, sleet and wet snow on Saturday - maybe an inch of slush. In other words, flurries.
I see more 40s early next week and with a chronic lack of snow cover I wouldn't be shocked to see a 50-degree high in December, thanks to a remarkably mild and persistent wind flow from the Pacific. No complaints here.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Winds: S 15-25. High: 48.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, mild & breezy. Winds: S 15-25. Low: 40.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, still quiet. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 45.
THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly. Good eating weather. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 28.
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, few flurries. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 20. High: 33.
SATURDAY: Light mix. Slushy coating? Winds: SE8-13. Wake-up: 23. High: 36.
SUNDAY: Some sun, good travel weather. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 37.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, relatively mild. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 27. High: 43.
This Day in Weather History
November 23rd
2003: New London and Little Falls both receive 9 inches of new snow.
1983: Heavy snowfall accumulates over most of central Minnesota with snowfall totals from 4 inches to almost 1 foot. Minneapolis received 11.4 inches of snow, while Farmington had 11 inches.
1954: Very strong winds over Minnesota lead to considerable damage in downtown Wadena.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 23rd
Average High: 37F (Record: 55F set in 1905)
Average Low: 22F (Record: -6F set in 1898)
Record Rainfall: 0.89" set in 1983
Record Snowfall: 11.4" set in 1983
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 17th
Sunrise: 7:21am
Sunset: 4:37pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 15 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 59 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 35 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 23rd at Midnight
3.2 Days Before Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temperatures across the Central US with readings running nearly +10F to +15F above average. Meanwhile, folks along the East Coat will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through midweek shows a storm system moving in from the Pacific Northwest to the Central US. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Northwest with minimal rain/snow chances along the Front Range and the Southern US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and also in the Southern US. Meanwhile, minimal precipitation will be found across the Upper Midwest through the Holiday Weekend.
Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential, which shows heavier snowfall across Much of Canada and the northern Rockies. There will be some Great Lakes snows, but nothing major appears to be brewing across the Central US.
Climate Stories
"Wildfires torched up to a fifth of all giant sequoia trees"
"Lightning-sparked wildfires killed thousands of giant sequoias this year, leading to a staggering two-year death toll that accounts for up to nearly a fifth of Earth's largest trees, officials said Friday. Fires in Sequoia National Park and surrounding Sequoia National Forest tore through more than a third of groves in California and torched an estimated 2,261 to 3,637 sequoias, which are the largest trees by volume. Nearby wildfires last year killed an unprecedented 7,500 to 10,400 giant sequoias that are only native in about 70 groves scattered along the western side of the Sierra Nevada range. Losses now account for 13% to 19% of the 75,000 sequoias greater than 4 feet (1.2 meters) in diameter."
"U.S. weather forecasting is about to get better"
- The Bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) includes large sums for improving the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Why it matters: Making wildfire detections and forecasting more accurate, as well as honing weather and climate projections, are increasingly vital tasks as the weather grows more extreme due to human-induced climate change. Driving the news: According to a Nov. 15 memo from NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad, the BIF provides nearly $500 million for NOAA's coastal and inland flood mapping, forecasting and water modeling. It also includes: $50 million for improving wildfire forecasting. $50 million for new instruments and equipment to aid in the detection, observation and modeling of wildfires. $80 million for buying research supercomputing resources for advancing forecast accuracy. Context: In addition to annual appropriations, the infrastructure law is the latest move by lawmakers to provide funding boosts for the nation's top weather and climate agency, whose computing power and weather model accuracy had fallen behind other nations in recent years:
"A Quarter of U.S. Roads Could Be Regularly Flooded in 30 Years"
"The U.S. recently passed a $1 trillion bipartisan spending bill aimed at improving and repairing the country's decaying infrastructure, but a new report on flooding risks resulting from climate change warns even more investment might be needed. Within the next 30 years, sea level rise and more intense downpours could put around 26% of U.S. roads underwater on the regular. Nearly 40,000 critical infrastructure facilities, including airports, fire stations, and hospitals, may be at risk of flooding as well. Those are just a few of the dire findings within a recently released, multiyear analysis conducted last month by nonprofit group First Street Foundation. The report found there are already around 2 million miles (3.2 million kilometers) of U.S. roads at risk today, and another 200,000 miles (320,000 kilometers) will be put in the danger zone in the coming decades."
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