Flood Watch And Severe Storm Potential Through Thursday Night - Calmer Weekend Weather

We're tracking strong storms stretching from Litchfield to the north of the metro and into Wisconsin that are producing heavy rain, lots of lightning, and the occasional potential for hail and stronger wind gusts.

A Flood Watch has been issued through 4 AM Friday for the metro eastward into western Wisconsin for training thunderstorms that could produce 3-5" of rain through the evening into the overnight hours across the region.

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The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended south into the heart of the metro by the National Weather Service. The watch is still in place through 9 PM Thursday.

ORIGINAL POST BELOW

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Strong To Severe Storms Thursday Afternoon Into Overnight

Already as of mid-afternoon Thursday, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch had been issued across portions of central and eastern Minnesota until 9 PM. The watch - which includes St. Cloud, Brainerd, and Duluth - cautions about a few tornadoes, hail up to 3" in diameter, and wind gusts to 70 mph.

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I feel like I'm saying the same thing week to week when we look at the latest Drought Monitor release, but once again we have seen an increase in the amount of the state under drought conditions in the past week. While the worst category in place (D3 - Extreme Drought) did not see any changes, 80.32% of Minnesota is now under at least D1 Moderate Drought, and 29.66% is under D2 Severe Drought - both up since last week.

Despite the rain that we saw from Tuesday last week through Tuesday this morning, we only saw the drought stay steady or worsen across the state over the past week.

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As we head into Friday, we will be watching the potential of more showers and storms which could delay play at the 3M Open. While a storm or two could still be around early in the morning, the better chance of storms on Friday will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Warm morning temperatures in the low 70s give way to highs in the mid to upper 80s - cooler than Thursday, but still feeling like the low 90s.

Another round of showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across the state on Friday with a frontal boundary in place. A few could be severe - more on that below. Cooler temperatures are in place behind one frontal boundary that will have already moved south, but it'll still be a warm day in southern Minnesota as highs climb to near 90F. Up north, 60s along the North Shore and 70s elsewhere are expected.

Forecast loop between 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Here's a look at the timing of the potential storms Friday afternoon. A few of these storms could end up being severe.

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As we head toward the weekend and early next week, highs will be much closer to normal here in the metro in the low to mid-80s. Mainly sunny skies are expected each day, but an isolated storm can't be ruled out Sunday Night.

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We will see another round of heat as we head into the middle of next week - but it doesn't look like what we have seen this week. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be up around 90F before falling back off a few degrees (again, closer to average) by the first weekend of August.

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Good news: today will not feel as jungle-like as it did yesterday. No Orlando, Dubai or New Delhi with lakes. It will not be a 2-shower day. Yesterday the metro heat index was 105 to 110F; probably the hottest day of the year and the 19th day of 90+ readings at MSP in 2023. A stray T-shower may pop today but nothing like yesterday's fireworks.

Predicting the future is always problematic, but the current El Nino, with water temperatures 6-12F warmer than average, may be comparable to 1983 and 1997. I suspect we'll see a few 90s well into September, and the upcoming winter won't look anything like last winter. If previous El Nino phases are a guide, it should be significantly milder, with more rain and ice events. We'll see.

I expect less flashing and splashing (and running and screaming) today as cooler air pushes south out of Canada on a fresh northeast breeze. Expect sunshine this weekend with 70s and low 80s. A breath of fresh air. Well, potentially smoky, but comfortably-smoggy. What a summer.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny, breezy and comfortable: Wake up 65. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Warm sunshine, risk of smoke. Wake up 64. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, sticky again. Wake up 68. High 88. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some sunshine, muggy. Wake up 71. High 91. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 28th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 50 minutes, and 40 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 14 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 28th

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Showers and storms are expected across the northern and eastern portions of the nation on Friday, as well as along the Gulf Coast. The July heatwave continues from the Southwest to the East Coast.

The heaviest rain through the first half of the weekend will be in the Northeast, where 3"+ of rain could fall in portions of New England.

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July 2023 is set to be the hottest month on record

Here's what limits Biden on heat waves

More from E&E News: "President Joe Biden plans to announce new government measures Thursday to deal with extreme heat as more than a third of the U.S. population has been under alert for dangerous temperatures in the past week. Yet any effort to expand federal activities to address the risks of heat waves could collide with laws and regulations that limit the government's ability to help overheated communities. Federal law doesn't consider extreme heat a disaster, unlike tornadoes, hurricanes or wildfires. Heat-mitigation programs such as opening public cooling centers and rebuilding facilities to be more heat-resistant are handled by states, counties and municipalities, sometimes with federal expertise and cash."

New York, LA, Chicago and Houston, the Nation's Four Largest Cities, Are Among Those Hardest Hit by Heat Islands

More from Inside Climate News: "Chicago is not known for its blistering temperatures like, say, Phoenix, which is experiencing a relentless stretch of 100-degree days this month. But a recent report analyzing temperature disparities within cities found that Chicago was among the cities with the largest population living in urban heat islands, above San Antonio, San Diego and Phoenix. Urban heat islands are pockets of a city that absorb and retain heat more than surrounding areas due to dense concentrations of pavement, buildings and other urban features and limited natural land cover to reduce temperatures. Five cities—New York, Houston, Los Angeles, Dallas and Chicago—are home to the highest percentage of the population living in areas with temperatures elevated by at least eight degrees Fahrenheit, according to the analysis by Climate Central of the urban heat island effect in 44 U.S. cities. A dozen of the cities studied, including Chicago, have a proportion of their population living in areas with an urban heat island index of 12 degrees, meaning they are that much hotter than the cities' baseline temperatures."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser