Severe Drought In The Metro - Hot Friday, Severe Storms Saturday

Chalk up another 90F degree day for Friday in the metro under mainly sunny skies (though we could see a few clouds, especially in the morning due to some overnight showers/storms that mainly pass south and west of the Twin Cities). Morning temperatures start off around 70F before we climb to the low 90s for highs. With dew points around 60F, feels like temperatures won't factor in too much.

For the most part, it'll be a hot and sunny day across the state on Friday but a few isolated storms can't be ruled out in southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Temperatures for the most part will be in the 80s and 90s across Minnesota, with a few stragglers in northern parts of the state and the North Shore hanging in the 70s.

A few of the storms across southeastern Minnesota could be strong on Friday and Friday Night, with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) in place. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. A Marginal Risk is also in place in northwestern/western Minnesota for Friday Night, with hail and wind the main threats as well.

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As we head toward Saturday, though, we will see a greater risk of severe weather across the region with a Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) across much of the metro and an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3 of 5) across southeastern Minnesota into northeastern Iowa and Wisconsin. As storms move across the region, we could see a line that contains damaging wind gusts. Large hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out either across the region.

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So on Saturday, we will be watching storm chances across the region. It doesn't look like an all-day washout, with the best chances of seeing rain/storms in the morning to midday hours, and then again potentially late in the day. Saturday could be the last shot at 90F for a little bit, as highs cool behind that system into the low 80s on Sunday and mid-80s on Monday with mainly sunny skies. Looking out at the extended forecast, highs in the 80s are expected to continue through much of next week... and even the European model hints at some upper 70s at times.

With a chance of an isolated shower Thursday Night, and a better chance of rain heading into Saturday, it appears we have the potential to receive some much-needed rain across portions of southern Minnesota the next few days. There's the potential that half an inch or more of rain could fall through Sunday morning in the metro, with heavier amounts into Wisconsin.

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And, as I said, we could use that rain as the drought continues to worsen across portions of the metro southwestward. In these areas, Severe Drought was introduced in the latest drought monitor update issued Thursday. Currently, just under 1.5% of the state is under Severe Drought, with just under 7% under at least Moderate Drought. Abnormally dry conditions have also expanded across central and southern Minnesota and now cover just under 28.5% of Minnesota.

And this map, showing precipitation departures since May 1st across the state, matches up fairly closely to the latest drought monitor with some of the highest departures from the southern metro westward. Just how dry has it been at MSP? Here's the amount of precipitation and rankings for several timeframes since May 1st:

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A few nuggets rolling around in my overheated cranial cavity: severe drought is now impacting the Twin Cities metro. Since May 1 MSP rainfall is down roughly 4", while the northern half of Minnesota is showing a rainfall surplus.

Minnesota's average summer temperature has warmed 2.8F since 1970. But our nights have warmed 4.6F during that period, a symptom of more water in the air, which limits how cool it can get at night.

So far in 2022 heat records are outpacing cold records worldwide by a factor of 10-to-1. 115F in parts of Texas. And extreme weather events cost the U.S. $145 billion in 2021. No wonder insurance premiums are rising.

Today is the 14th day of 90+ in the metro so far this year, with a stray T-storm early. Showers and storms become more numerous Saturday. A few may be severe, especially south and east of the Twin Cities. Fresh air returns Sunday with comfortable 80s next week. Enjoy the respite because NOAA's long-range models keep us warmer than average into October. A bit toasty.

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FRIDAY: Sunny and hot. Wake up 70. High 91. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Showers and T-storms, some severe. Wake up 73. High 90. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, windy & less humid. Wake up 67. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: Intervals of sunshine, comfortable. Wake up 63. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine, T-storms late. Wake up 62. High 85. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Breathing easier. Some sunshine. Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 22nd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 2 minutes, and 58 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 58 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 8th (8:29 PM)

This Day in Weather History
July 22nd

1972: Copious amounts of rain fall in parts of Minnesota, with 10.84 inches of rainfall in 24 hours at Ft. Ripley. 14 inches of rain is measured at a farm in Morrison County.

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A few frontal boundaries placed from the central to the eastern United States will help spark showers and thunderstorms on Friday across the nation. Scattered record highs are possible across the southern tier of states.

The heaviest rain through Saturday evening will be across portions of the Southeast, but rainfall totals for the most part will remain under 3" for all areas of the lower 48.

The amount of Greenland ice that melted last weekend could cover West Virginia in a foot of water

More from CNN: "The water off the coast of northwest Greenland is a glass-like calm, but the puddles accumulating on the region's icebergs are a sign that a transformation is underway higher on the ice sheet. Several days of unusually warm weather in northern Greenland have triggered rapid melting, made visible by the rivers of meltwater rushing into the ocean. Temperatures have been running around 60 degrees Fahrenheit — 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, scientists told CNN. The amount of ice that melted in Greenland between July 15 and 17 alone — 6 billion tons of water per day — would be enough to fill 7.2 million Olympic-sized swimming pools, according to data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center."

Biden announces modest steps to fight climate's 'clear and present danger'

More from Politico: "President Joe Biden sought to keep his faltering climate change agenda alive Wednesday after bruising defeats in Congress and at the Supreme Court, and he vowed to take matters into his own hands as heatwave records topple in the U.S. and Europe and his climate goals drift further out of reach. For now, those steps will be modest: Biden's administration will clear the way for new offshore wind energy in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, he announced during a visit at a former coal-burning power plant in Somerset, Mass. And the government will spend $2.3 billion to bolster communities' defenses against climate change and make it easier for low-income households to purchase efficient air conditioners to combat searing heat."

USPS ups electric truck order to 40% of its new fleet

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser