Scorching Hot Monday With Highs Approaching 100F

One of the hottest days this year is likely on Monday here in the metro, with highs climbing into the upper 90s under lots of sunshine. There's the chance we could get even higher, thanks to our dry soils across the region as well as dewpoints that are sticky but not oppressive.

While our dewpoints won't be as oppressive as they were back on the 101F day on June 20th (when they reached 70F), it will still feel humid and sticky out as they will generally be in the mid-60s. That'll lead to feels like temperatures in the low 100s during the peak of the heat later in the afternoon hours.

It'll be a hot day across the state, with 80s and 90s for most locations - including along the North Shore. These highs are a good 10-15F degrees for most locations. A few passing showers and storms may be possible at times in northern Minnesota, and a few of those late in the day could be strong.

Highs will be within a few degrees of records for areas like the Twin Cities (101F set in 1940), Brainerd, and Hibbing.

A few storms, mainly across northern Minnesota, could be strong to severe Monday night. Hail and wind will be the main threats.

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Another hot, but likely not as hot, day will await us on Tuesday here in the Twin Cities. High will once again soar into the 90s - likely making it to around 95F at MSP - under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. We can't rule out a thunderstorm or two late in the day that could be strong to severe, but better chances of that will be up north.

The better storm chances to our north will be due to that heat bubble in place along with an area of low pressure moving across northern parts of the state. While we could get a late-day shower or storm to form farther south with the cold front moving through, chances don't look the greatest at this moment. 80s will be likely from the Brainerd Lakes northward (with 70s along the North Shore), while mainly 90s are expected south of that line.

If we can get storms to form Tuesday afternoon here across central and southern Minnesota - and that might be a BIG if - some of them will likely be strong to severe. Damaging winds would be the greatest concern from any strong to severe storms.

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Behind that system, we'll see some slightly cooler air move in as we head into Wednesday... and by slightly cooler I mean highs in the mid to upper 80s. Enjoy that brief reprieve from the 90s, as they'll be back to end the week and head into the weekend. As mentioned above, we'll be within a few degrees of the record high on Monday.

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The heaviest rain through the next five days will fall across portions of northern Minnesota into southern Canada, on the periphery of the heat bubble that'll be moving into the upper Midwest. In these areas, rainfall of at least an inch can be expected. Most of the rain you see down into the metro will actually be due to any storms that formed across the region Sunday afternoon - besides that rain chance on Tuesday if we get storms to form, we'll be mostly dry here in the metro. It looks like another storm chance could move in that includes the metro Friday night into Saturday.

Our somewhat minuscule rain potential here across the metro into southern Minnesota will not do much to help out the drought situation. Moderate drought is in place from the metro to around Mankato.

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Extended Outlook Calls For "Very Warm"
By Paul Douglas

Everything is relative. Except your relatives. A TV meteorologist friend working in Phoenix told me he was banned from saying the word "hot". It scares the tourists, his news director warned. OK. "Tuesday, sunny and VERY WARM with a high of 105". Dry heat in the southwestern US is a different beast than heatwaves east of the Rockies, juiced by wet air flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Today is the 12th day of 90+ heat this summer season at MSP. In fact I expect mid-90s today and tomorrow, with a late afternoon heat index flirting with 100F. Jungle-hot. A few welcome T-storms may fire off Tuesday afternoon, again late Wednesday as a little relief trickles out of Canada. But 90s return by late week (along with a few swarms of storms to settle the dust).

I see no break from this "very warm" pattern through the first week of August. Find a cool lake ASAP.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 67. High 97. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy and less humid. Late thunder? Wake up 71. High 89. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny and plenty-hot. Wake up 71. High 91. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, mostly-sweaty. Wake up 69. High 94. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Some sun, opportunity for a T-storm. Wake up 73. High 92. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Damp start, then sticky sunshine. Wake up 72. High 91. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 18th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 10 minutes, and 36 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 46 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 8th (8:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 18th

1970: A tornado slices right through the center of Miltona.

1867: The greatest 'unofficial' rainstorm in Minnesota history is reported. 36 inches of rain is recorded in 36 hours near Sauk Center. Disastrous flooding occurs in central Minnesota. The Pomme De Terre river becomes impassable; a courier attempted to cross on horseback and drowned. Flooding also occurs on the Mississippi, with millions of logs lost on the river.

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On Monday, a good chance of showers and storms is expected near and along a frontal boundary and associated areas of low pressures from the mid/lower Mississippi Valley to the Northeast. Scattered storms will be possible across the northern tier of states, in the Southeast, and also in the Southwest.

Some of the heaviest rain over the next few days will fall in the mid-Mississippi Valley, where areas in and around St. Louis could see over three inches of rain. A widespread area of at least 1-3" is possible from the Ohio and Tenneessee Valleys into parts of New England.

Changes in Store for the Tropical Atlantic

More from Eye on the Tropics: "The summer vacation the Atlantic's taken for much of July has been a welcome sight, but there are signs the vacation may be coming to an end as we close out the month. The sinking, stable air that's dominated the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks will depart and the very hostile wind shear – well above average for the time of year – that's kept fledgling systems disorganized is forecast to weaken. These developments should provide a more conducive environment for tropical development across the Atlantic as we head into August, when tropical activity naturally begins to tick up."

New model shows Earth's deep mantle was drier from the start

More from Washington University in St. Louis: "Earth's mantle is the thick layer of silicate rock between Earth's crust and its molten core, making up about 84% of our planet's volume. The mantle is predominantly solid but, on geologic time scales, it behaves as a viscous fluid — as difficult to stir and mix as a pot of caramel. But, sticking with candy comparisons, maybe think more about malt balls and not gooey caramels. A new study from Washington University in St. Louis suggests that the deep part of the ancient mantle closest to the Earth's core started out substantially drier than the part of the mantle closest to the young planet's surface."

Amid climate change and conflict, more resilient food systems a must, report shows

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser