Scattered Afternoon Storms To Begin The Work Week

We'll start your Monday off in the Twin Cities with a mix of sun and clouds, but the chance of pop-up storms exists once again as we head toward the afternoon hours. Morning lows will be in the mid-60s with highs in the mid-80s.

Looking statewide, many areas have the chance of those scattered pop-up showers and storms during the afternoon hours Monday. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s on Monday - around to slightly above average.

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Highs in the 80s continue through the entire work week leading up to the holiday weekend. You can see they'll climb to the upper 80s Wednesday before a cold front pushes through, knocking temperatures back to the lower 80s for the end of the week. Until we see that frontal passage, daily pop-up afternoon showers and storms will be possible, with the greatest potential of widespread rain occurring Monday and Tuesday.

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As we head toward the 4th of July weekend, it currently looks like we'll see mostly dry conditions - but I can't rule out a few thunderstorms roaming around Sunday afternoon. Models are showing a cutoff low to our east for the weekend - right now it looks like it should be far enough east to prevent rain here, but if it does form a touch farther west we may have to start introducing some rain chances. While the above forecast shows highs in the low 80s, the European Model - which does have that low farther east and not impacting us - has temperatures in the upper 80s for Saturday and low 90s for Sunday.

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Springs are trending wetter across Minnesota in recent decades and June is, historically, our wettest month of the year. But there are exceptions to every weather-rule. This year the concern is drought. Will this be a dusty rerun of 2012 or even 1988 (44 days above 90F in the metro?)

Models show a hotter, drier bias into July and Augusts have been trending drier over time. My gut: drought will worsen before the pattern shifts later in 2022. I hope I'm wrong.

Plants and crops need an inch of water every week in June and welcome instability T-storms fire up again today and Tuesday. Rainfall will be all over the map with these fickle, hit-or-miss "convective" systems: a quick inch for some lawns while fields 5 miles down the road only get enough rain to settle the dust.

I see generally dry, sunny weather from Wednesday into most of the 4th of July weekend. Models hint at a few T-storms late Sunday and Monday and NOAA's GFS model brings a streak of 90s back into Minnesota the second week of July. Oof.

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MONDAY: Humid, few T-storms. Wake up 66. High 82. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Prowling T-storms, some heavy. Wake up 67. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunnier, drier and warmer. Wake up 66. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: More clouds than sun, a bit cooler. Wake up 66. High 81. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake up 62. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Hot sunshine, a few T-storms late? Wake up 67. High 90. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 28th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 34 minutes and 42 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 31 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? July 5th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 3 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 5:30 AM?: June 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Latest Sunset Of The Year?: June 19th-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

This Day in Weather History
June 28th

1876: The latest ice breakup in history for Duluth occurs on Lake Superior.

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A stalled-out boundary on Monday from the southern Plains to the Ohio River Valley will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy at times. The other big story Monday will be the continuing heatwave across the Northwestern United States.

From Sunday through Tuesday, the heaviest rain will fall across portions of the Southern Plains, where an additional 3-5" of rain could fall in some locations leading to flash flooding.

And the heat will at least continue through Monday across the region, with a reprieve for areas like Seattle and Portland as we head toward Tuesday and Wednesday. Below are the all-time June and all-time record highs for cities across the Northwest that were in place BEFORE this heatwave began. Therefore, they don't account for new records in these categories that were set Saturday or Sunday.

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS:

JUNE RECORD HIGHS:

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These are the hotshot firefighters leading attacks against California wildfires. And they're quitting

Sheep ranchers face hard decisions during drought

More from the Capital Press: "Across the water-starved West, sheep ranchers are making tough decisions. Facing withered pastures, climbing hay costs and scant water, many are thinning their flocks. Others are thinking of leaving the industry. In Southern Oregon, many pastures are already parched. Dee Samson, 65, a longtime rancher in Oregon's Klamath Basin, anticipated the water shortage and last year reduced her flock of North Country Cheviots by 25%. She also planned ahead by conserving water, planting new forage combinations and preparing to wean and sell her lambs a month earlier than usual. Despite her efforts, Samson's farm is hurting."

COVID-19 Lockdowns Cut Pollution, But Not All of It

More from NASA: "Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, it became clear from satellite observations and human experience that the world's air grew cleaner. But new research shows that not all pollutants were taken out of circulation during societal lockdowns. In particular, the concentration of tiny airborne pollution particles known as PM2.5 did not change that much because natural variability in weather patterns dominated and mostly obscured the reduction from human activity. "Intuitively you would think that if there is a major lockdown situation, we would see dramatic changes, but we didn't," said Melanie Hammer, a visiting research associate at Washington University in St. Louis and leader of the study. "It was kind of a surprise that the effects on PM2.5 were modest.""

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- D.J. Kayser