Three two-point conversions — including one that went backward to tie the game and one that went forward to win the game, both with a high element of fortune — might well determine the NFC champion and whether former Vikings QB Sam Darnold wins a Super Bowl in Seattle.
The Seahawks’ 38-37 overtime win over the Rams on Thursday was the kind of game that invites all sorts of second-guessing. But more than anything, it’s the kind of game that exemplifies how razor thin the margins are in the NFL and that randomness is the rule rather than the exception.
I explored some of those themes on Friday’s Daily Delivery podcast, but I want to get more specific at the start of today’s 10 things to know.
- Almost every objective measure of Thursday’s game suggests the Rams were both 1) the better team and 2) in great position to win the game. They racked up almost 600 yards of total offense (including 457 yards passing for QB Matthew Stafford), had a 14-minute edge in time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-0.
- But the NFL does not always reward the best team. Seattle, trailing 30-14 in the fourth quarter, pulled within eight on a punt return TD and two-point pass. The Seahawks scored again quickly on a Darnold TD pass to pull within 30-28, but it looked like they would stay behind when his two-point try fell to the ground. I was screaming at the TV that it was a backward pass, and upon further review it was changed to a successful try because running back Zach Charbonnet picked up the loose ball in the end zone.
- That tied the game 30-30, where it stayed until overtime. The Rams scored a touchdown to go up 37-30, but Darnold led Seattle to a score and ensuing two-point pass for a 38-37 win. I had gone to bed by then, unable to keep my eyes open, but just look at the narrow window on the winning conversion:
- So now Seattle is 12-3 while the Rams are 11-4 and San Francisco is 10-4. All three NFC West teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed, but Seattle’s odds are now better than 50%. The Rams would have been in the driver’s seat with a win Thursday. Now, there’s a good chance they’ll be a wild card team that needs to win three games (possibly all on the road) to reach the Super Bowl. That’s the margin in the NFL and the role luck plays in all of this.
- The narrative is that Darnold finally won a big game. But while he deserves credit for some clutch throws, his overall night (two interceptions, 41.7 Total QBR, 84.2 passer rating) was mediocre. Stafford massively outplayed him, carving up a Seahawks defense that has looked unbeatable at times (especially a few weeks ago against the Vikings and Max Brosmer). But Darnold might not have to be great to get to a Super Bowl. He might just have to win two home games.
- Of course, as the Lions found out last year after routing the Darnold-led Vikings in a winner-take-all regular-season finale, being the No. 1 seed is no guarantee of playoff success. The Vikings dropped to the No. 5 seed and were routed by the Rams in the first round. Time is a flat circle.
- Those two Vikings losses factored into the decision to let Darnold walk and turn things over to J.J. McCarthy. The hope was that McCarthy would play well enough to perhaps get the Vikings to the playoffs. An optimistic but still realistic projection might have been a 10-7 record for Minnesota at the start of the year. As it turns out, even a season that good (and not the 6-8 slog they’re currently in) almost certainly wouldn’t have been enough to get them into the playoffs again. The 8-6 Lions are unlikely to make it as of now. Maybe next year?
- Also on Friday’s podcast, I talked about how it just feels right that Kevin Garnett and the Wolves have made peace.
- Plus Bobby Nightengale joined me to talk about all the big Twins news from the week. Here’s his latest piece on what to expect from Tom Pohlad now that he’s in charge as Twins owner.
- The top three teams in the NHL’s Central Division are the Avalanche, Stars and Wild. They also happen to have the first-, second- and third-most points in the entire league. The Wild won again Thursday.
