The Republican National Committee thinks that a redistricting battle will be brewing in Minnesota after the state loses a congressional seat — and that a Democratic governor will preside over the fight.
The RNC estimates Minnesota will have seven congressional districts, a loss of one, after redistricting following the 2010 census, according to a document obtained by Politico. That would leave it up to the state legislature and governor to decide which of the current seats gets carved up for the 2012 elections.
But the RNC also indicated, with a box shaded blue in the governor column, that they expect Mark Dayton's nearly 9,000 vote lead to hold up, putting Minnesota under "divided" control.
We won't know if Minnesota keeps all its seats in Congress until the end of the year when the 2010 Census is released, but the margin will likely be razor thin: A recent estimate found the state would hold onto its eight seats by just 15,000 people.
Should the state lose a seat like the RNC predicts, a messy fight will ensue if the governor's mansion does flip to the DFL.
In 2000, Republicans had hoped to combine the Fourth (St. Paul) and Fifth (Minneapolis) Districts — both heavily Democratic — into a single urban district. On the other hand, it's no secret that DFLers would love to see Rep. Michele Bachmann's congressional district evaporate.
Even if Minnesota's redistricting becomes a bipartisan affair, Republican have the advantage nationally. The RNC document shows Republicans control both the legislature and governor's mansion in states that have 193 districts to draw, while Democrats control just 44. The rest are either divided or, like California, drawn up by independent commissions instead of statehouses.
Read the document by clicking fullscreen below (via Politico):
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