Republicans in Minnesota were bullish about their election chances. Then ICE arrived.

Minnesota Republicans saw a path back to statewide victory just a few weeks ago, as snowballing allegations of fraud in the state’s welfare programs put Democrats on the defensive and prompted a two-term governor to abandon his re-election bid.

That momentum quickly evaporated as the Trump administration deployed thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to Minnesota. ICE officers began clashing with protesters in the streets. Videos of violent arrests went viral, as did stories of U.S. citizens who were detained. Tensions boiled over after ICE agents shot and killed two Minnesotans, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, in a span of less than three weeks.

Republicans are now dealing with the fallout, having to explain if they support the aggressive immigration enforcement tactics that have shaken their state instead of hammering Democrats on fraud. One prominent GOP candidate for governor ended his campaign abruptly on Jan. 26, saying he could not support national Republicans’ “stated retribution on the citizens of our state.”

“National Republicans have made it nearly impossible for a Republican to win a statewide election in Minnesota,” attorney Chris Madel said as he exited the race.

Republicans in Minnesota now face new obstacles as they try to win a statewide election for the first time since 2006 and retain at least partial control of the Legislature. National polling shows the gains the party made with young voters and people of color in 2024 have started to unravel amid the immigration crackdown and concerns about how President Donald Trump has handled it and other key issues.

“The narrative has completely shifted,” said Preya Samsundar, a GOP operative in Minnesota who previously worked for the Republican National Committee. “Where two months ago we were talking about billions of dollars of fraud in this state being a bad thing for taxpayers … we are now in a position of having to discuss whether or not individual American citizens were murdered by government agents.”

“The narrative out there right now is that this administration is doing bad things, that Republicans are doing bad things to people in this state,” Samsundar added.

GOP candidates for governor likely will also struggle to tie Klobuchar, a federal lawmaker, to the sprawling fraud in state social services programs.

The party has some runway left before Election Day to shift the spotlight back onto Democrats. “Ten months away is a lifetime in politics,” said GOP state Sen. Jim Abeler, who argued “the jury is still out” on his party’s chances in the fall.

Abeler, a Republican from Anoka, has criticized some aspects of the ICE operation in Minnesota and represents what’s likely to be a political swing district in the November election.

He said his district is divided. He senses “rage, frankly, on both sides,” and said people aren’t understanding each other’s perspective. He called on Walz and Trump to put aside their differences and talk, which happened later that day.

Still, Abeler said Operation Metro Surge — the name the Trump administration has given to its deployment of ICE agents to Minnesota — is “just off the rails,” and in some cases detaining citizens without due process.

As someone who worked for Trump and championed GOP policies and candidates, Samsundar said it is “heartbreaking” for her to see her mother fear being pulled over “merely because she’s got a different skin color.”

She said the Trump administration needs to change its approach — and fast — for Republicans to move on and shift the focus.

The GOP still has a potent political issue to run on with the fraud that has unfolded under DFL leadership.

Federal prosecutors have documented hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of fraud in state autism services, housing and meals programs, among others. The total scope of the theft could reach into the billions when all is uncovered, according to federal prosecutors.

“The fraud issue will come back because it has a long tail on it,” said Alex Plechash, chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota. “People are going to be prosecuted … more stuff is going to be rooted out.”

Still, Plechash said he believes the immigration standoff will soon be resolved and other issues like fraud will come back into view.

Jeff Hayden, a former DFL state senator, said fraud isn’t going away and Democrats in Minnesota need better regulatory oversight to solve it.

But in the past month, Hayden said, Minnesotans watched a trusted fraud prosecutor in Joe Thompson resign from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Minnesota over the shooting of Renee Good and how the Trump administration responded to it.

Hayden said he thinks the political consequences of the immigration enforcement operation will ripple through the state. People are seeing overzealous enforcement in the suburbs, rural agricultural communities and smaller cities like St. Cloud and Morris, he said.

“These guys have been all over the state,” Hayden said. “So I think it’s wishful thinking to make this a south Minneapolis or a Minneapolis-centric issue.”