Thanks to Brace Hemmelgarn for the picture below who took this picture from Iceland on October 12th, 2021. That was the last big northern lights event that was even visible across parts of the northern U.S., including Minnesota. According to NOAA, there is a geomagnetic storm watch for October 30th, which means there is a good chance of seeing northern lights across the northern US, including Minnesota once again!

According to the Alaska Geophysical Institute, the northern lights forecast suggests strong auroral activity potential overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The Kp Index could peak around 7, which would mean that (weather permitting) northern lights could be seen as far south as Carson City, NV, Oklahoma City, OK, and Raleigh, NC.

See more from the Geophysical Institute HERE:

Here's the weather outlook for our last weekend of October. Dry and sunny conditions are expected both days with running nearly +10F above average on Saturday, then dropping to below average levels on Sunday with breezy NW winds.

According to the MN DNR, it appears that much of the state is past peak color. However, there is still some good color in spots around the state, so enjoy it while you can before much of the landscape turns brown. Note that foliage likely won't arrive until sometime in May, which is nearly 7 months from now.

See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:

Here's the weather outlook through the weekend and through the first half of the week ahead. Saturday will be a dry and mild day with a cool front passing through the region late Saturday. Temps will be much cooler on Sunday with cooler winds and perhaps a few flurries across the northern part of the state.

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 7% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 22% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 36%, down from 75% 3 months ago. Nearly 62% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -5.50" below average since January 1st, which is the 52nd driest January 1st - October 29th on record.

Saturday will be a dry, sunny and comfortable day with highs running above average by nearly +10F for late October. We'll start off with areas of patchy fog, but sunny skies will prevail through much of the day.

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday, shows readings starting in the upper 30s and warming into the upper 50s by the afternoon. Sunny skies will be with us through the entire day with southerly winds in place much of the day.

High temps across the region on Saturday will warm to above average levels across the entire region with readings nearly +10F above average.

The extended weather outlook through the 3rd full week of October shows mild and quiet weather in place through Tuesday. Weather conditions turn more unsettled during the 2nd half of the week with rain chances and falling temps. Next weekend could be quite chilly with highs possibly below average for a change. Next week will also several cold nights with low temps dipping into the 20s. Our next best chance of any precipitation won't come until late next week.

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be mild through the early part of the upcoming week, but will then tumble to below average readings for a change later in the week and weekend ahead.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps returning across the Upper Midwest and across the Plains.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there will be an increase in precipitation chances across the Northwest and in the Southeast. However, it'll be mainly dry in the Great Lakes and the Southwest.

I've chased tornadoes (not a metaphor), flown into hurricanes and endured my fair share of blizzards over the years. But nothing could prepare me for the Halloween Blizzard of '91.

Today feels like September with an outside shot at 60F in the metro later on. Halloween will feel like late October, with scrappy clouds and a chilly breeze, with Trick or Treat temperatures in the low 40s, so extra layers make sense.

Flurries are possible Monday, but even though it will be cold enough for snow next week, significant moisture will remain south.

PS: My shipping container costume is stuck...in a shipping container. How ironic.

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 58.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 5-15. Low: 38.

MONDAY: PM sprinkles, few flakes up north? Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 34. High: 43.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 39.

WEDNESDAY: More sun, feels like November. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 37.

THURSDAY: Plenty of chilled sunshine. Winds: NW 10-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 43.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, still pretty quiet. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 25. High: 47.

1951: An early snow storm drops as much as 8 inches of snowfall in north central Minnesota. Mora had 8 inches, while Long Prairie received 6 inches. Glenwood, Little Falls, Morris, and New London all had 5 inches of new snow. Meanwhile, surrounding areas received a couple of inches.

1936: An intense dust storm causes damage in Central Minnesota. Heavy wind damage is reported in Stearns County.

October 30th

Average High: 51F (Record: 83F set in 1950)

Average Low: 35F (Record: 10F set in 1925)

Record Snowfall: 0.8" set in 1951

October 30th

Sunrise: 7:49am

Sunset: 6:04pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 14 minutes

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~5 Hour & 36 Minutes

2.5 Days After Last Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Saturday shows quiet weather returning across much of the central US. Cloud skies and areas of heavier rain will be possible in the Northeast. Meanwhile, a cool front will work out of the Northwest with areas of rain & snow possible across the Front Range of the Rockies heading into the late weekend and early next week timeframe.

The weather outlook through the weekend shows lingering rain across the Northeast, which could keep flood threats in place through Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the Central US with much cooler air in the wake of the front. Temps will be cold enough for areas of snow across the Front Range of the Rockies.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier rains will still be possible in the Northeast and along the West Coast. Another batch of heavier rain will be possible in the Southern US.

The old saying that "every cloud has a silver lining" is apparently true — even if that cloud is part of a hurricane. According to researchers from the University of Texas at Austin, natural disasters have the power to bring married couples closer together. Study authors looked at couples living in the Houston area both before and after Hurricane Harvey arrived in August 2017 to reach these conclusions. While this work may raise some eyebrows, researchers maintain that these findings hold serious value when it comes to sculpting new ways to help couples and families navigate stressful situations.

See more from Study Finds HERE:

"Ask people to name the world's largest river, and most will probably guess that it's the Amazon, the Nile or the Mississippi. In fact, some of Earth's largest rivers are in the sky—and they can produce powerful storms, like the ones now drenching northern California. Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that extend from the tropics to higher latitudes. These rivers in the sky can transport 15 times the volume of the Mississippi River. When that moisture reaches the coast and moves inland, it rises over the mountains, generating rain and snowfall. Many fire-weary westerners welcome these deluges, but atmospheric rivers can trigger other disasters, such as extreme flooding and debris flows."

See more from Phys.org HERE:

"It's vital renewable energy solutions have the capabilities to produce enough power for the countries installing them. Throughout the summer, warm and windless months meant wind farms across Europe were not producing a consistent amount of electricity. UK-based power company SSE stated that its renewable assets produced 32% less power than expected. Its important policymakers are aware of the possible fluctuations in weather and plan accordingly. Through summer and early autumn 2021, Europe experienced a long period of dry conditions and low wind speeds. The beautifully bright and still weather may have been a welcome reason to hold off reaching for our winter coats, but the lack of wind can be a serious issue when we consider where our electricity might be coming from. To meet climate mitigation targets, such as those to be discussed at the upcoming COP26 event in Glasgow, power systems are having to rapidly change from relying on fossil fuel generation to renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower. This change makes our energy systems increasingly sensitive to weather and climate variability and the possible effects of climate change."