Recent Data Shows April Cooling Trend

A massive storm temporarily stalled over Michigan keeps rain showers in the forecast this weekend - the best chance of getting wet afternoon and evening hours. Up to 6" snow may fall over northern Wisconsin. Good time. 60s return next week, but it would appear that spring has lost its bounce. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

April 29, 2023 at 2:30AM

Soggy Weekend Ahead

An intense area of low pressure will swirl around the Great Lakes this weekend sending waves of showers through Minnesota and Wisconsin. The heaviest precipitation will set up through Wisconsin and into the UP of Michigan with areas of snowfall possible there. There will also be some snow chances across the Arrowhead of Minnesota this weekend as well. For the Twin Cities, total precipitation amounts will overall be light, but cool, gray and showery conditions won't be favorable for many with outdoor plans.

Weather Outlook From AM Saturday to Midday Sunday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

Here's the total liquid precipitation potential through AM Monday. Note that the heaviest amounts will be across northern Wisconsin, the UP of Michigan and the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities could pick up and additional couple of tenths of an inch of liquid through the weekend.

Precipitation Potential Through AM Monday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

Areas of wet snow will be possible farther north and east of the Twin Cities with some shovelable amounts possible across far northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. There could also be a slushy coating across the Arrowhead.

Snowfall Potential Through AM Monday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Ice Outs

According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka is officially ICE OUT!! It happened on Wednesday, April 19th, which is a just about a week later than average. The earliest ice out was on March 11th, 1878, while the latest ice out was on May 5th, 2018. Ice outs will continue to creep north over the next several days and weeks. Many of the larger lakes in central and northern Minnesota have yet to go ice out, but it won't be long now...

Lake Minnesota Ice Out (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Ice Outs (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Flood Outlook

According to the National Weather Service, out of 160 river gauges on the map below, 40 are currently in flood stage and still could be over the next several days. The good news is that many rivers have crested close to home with river levels dropping through the weekend and into early next week.

River Flooding Forecast (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Flood Waters Receding in Stillwater

Here's the river forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater. Major flooding has ended after reaching a crest of 89.26ft earlier this week, which is the 7th highest crest on record there. We'll still be dealing with minor flooding through the weekend and most of next week, but the worst appears to be over for this spring.

River Forecast For The St. Croix River at Stillwater (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Major Flooding Expected Along The Mississippi River at St. Paul

The Mississippi River at St. Paul will still be dealing with Major flooding through the weekend, but it appears the crest of 18.24ft earlier this week will be the high point of this spring season. That mark is the 11th highest on record. As we head into next week, we'll still be dealing with moderate and minor flooding, but water levels will be receding.

River Forecast For The Mississippi River at St. Paul (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 24, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north. Spring arrived several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, then slowed across the northern Great Plains and lower Midwest. In the past week, spring has moved further into the Western US, arriving days to weeks later than usual. Billings MT is 18 days late, Spokane WA is 12 days late, and Bend OR is 24 days late. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. Spring bloom has also arrived 2 weeks late in the Seattle area, and 5 days early in Pittsburgh, PA. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of the West are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."

Status of Spring (National Phenology Network/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall So Far This Season

Snowfall amounts are quite impressive across the region with several locations running well above average. Duluth has seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record! The Twin Cities has seen more than 90" of snow, which is the 3rd snowiest season on record. Interestingly, Bismarck North Dakota is only 0.5" away from being the snowiest season on record as well! Most climate sites around the Midwest are well above average for snowfall this season with a surplus of more than 50" in Duluth and Bismarck. The Twin Cities is nearly 40" above average this season as well.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowiest Season on Record in Duluth

As of Saturday, the NWS in Duluth had seen nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record. This beats the previous record of 135.4" set during the winter of 1995-96. Interestingly, 1996 was the last year that Lake Superior completely froze over. Note that there have only been 19 seasons on record that have recorded 100" or more in Duluth.

Snowiest Season on Record in Duluth (NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

3rd Snowiest Season on Record in Minneapolis

It's been an impressive snow season in the Twin Cities as well with the MSP Airport picking up more than 90" of snow, which is good enough for the 3rd snowiest season on record. We need less than 5.0" into the 2nd spot and less than 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.

3rd Snowiest Season on Record at the MSP Airport (NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows lingering cooler temps through the weekend ahead with readings only warming into the 40s and 50s. Next week looks better with a string of 60s, which will be closer to average! We may even get close to 70F a few days into the first half of May. Stay tuned...

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, April 29th will be a little unsettled through the afternoon hours. Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with temps only warm into the upper 40s to near 50F. Not a very nice late April day, considering our average high for this time of the year is in the low/mid 60s.

Saturday Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps across the region on Saturday will be nearly -10F to -15F below average with readings only warming into the 40s across much of Minnesota. We'll see scattered showers develop during the day with a clap or two of thunder possible as well.

Saturday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Saturday shows temps starting around 40F in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 40s by the afternoon. It'll be mainly cloudy with scattered showers developing and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Northwesterly winds will be breezy through the day with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph later in the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

A large area of low pressure will swirl around the Great Lakes region this weekend with cold rain and snow showers before moving into the Northeast early next week. The Midwest looks a little quieter into the first full week of May as temperatures gradually warm back to near average levels.

Extended Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will be cooler than average through the weekend ahead. In fact, we'll be nearly -10F to -15F below average through Monday. We'll see a gradual warming trend into next week with 60s returning by midweek, which will be at or slightly above average for early May!

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

It won't be a very nice weekend with cool, gray and soggy weather conditions in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday with a steady light rain possible on Sunday. Temps will be well below average this weekend as well, but we're seeing improved weather conditions into next week with drier warmer weather on the way!

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average weather moving into parts of the Midwest from May 6th to the 12th. Meanwhile, cooler than average weather will be possible in California and the Southeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter/drier weather in place from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, more active weather will be possible again in the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Recent Data Shows April Cooling Trend
By Paul Douglas

The planet is warming. Minnesota's atmosphere is slowly warming over time, with the strongest warming signal coming fall and winter. But springs, specifically April, have cooled over the last decade with more snow.

So says data compiled by Dr. Mark Seeley and Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld, Minnesota's Senior Climatologist. In fact, The springs of 2013, 2014, 2018, and 2022 are among the coldest of the past 50 years, says Dr. Seeley. Dr. Blumenfeld adds: "There has indeed been a tendency to have cool or cold, and often very snowy late-winter/spring periods here in Minnesota." It's not your imagination. Weather weirding, possibly a symptom of rapid arctic warming displacing chilly air farther south. Fluke or trend? Stay tuned.

A massive storm temporarily stalled over Michigan keeps rain showers in the forecast this weekend - the best chance of getting wet afternoon and evening hours. Up to 6" snow may fall over northern Wisconsin. Good time.

60s return next week, but it would appear that spring has lost its bounce.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Damp with PM showers. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with t-showers. Winds: NNW 15-25. Low: 37.

SUNDAY: Cloudy and gusty. PM showers. Winds: NW 20-40. High: 46.

MONDAY: Partly sunny, stiff breeze. Winds: NW 15-35. Wake-up: 36. High: 54.

TUESDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 38. High: 58.

WEDNESDAY: Mild sunshine. Late T-shower? Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 41. High 67.

THURSDAY: Cool and unsettled, few showers. Winds: N 15-30. Wake-up: 46. High 57.

FRIDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High 62.

This Day in Weather History

April 29th

1984: Late season heavy snow blankets the Twin Cities with 6.6 inches.

1940: Heavy rain falls in Duluth, with a daily total of 3.25 inches.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

April 29th

Average High: 63F (Record: 92F set in 1952)

Average Low: 43F (Record: 22F set in 1958)

Record Rainfall: 1.30" set in 1991

Record Snowfall: 6.6" set in 1984

Twin Cities Almanac For April 29th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

April 29th

Sunrise: 6:05am

Sunset: 8:15pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 46 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 hour & 24 minutes

Moon Phase for April 29th at Midnight

2.4 Days Since First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For April 29th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Saturday

Temperatures on Saturday will be quite a bit cooler than average across the Central US with temps running nearly -10F to -15F below average for late April. Warmer and drier weather will be in place across the Western half of the country with widespread record warmth possible for the Central Valley in California. Record warmth will be possible in the Desert Southwest on Sunday, including Phoenix, AZ with a high reaching 101F.

National Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday will be more unsettled along and east of the Mississippi River Valley with widespread thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast States. Areas of cool, wet and windy weather will settle across the Great Lakes with areas of snow possible as well.

National Weather Map For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat on Saturday & Sunday

According to NOAA's SPC, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern and Southeastern US this weekend. Threat greatest risk will be on Saturday across the Panhandle of Florida. Meanwhile, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.

National Severe Threat on Saturday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Severe Threat on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

An intense area of low pressure will develop over the weekend and lift northeast toward the Great Lakes and Northeastern US with areas of heavy rain. Widespread storms will be possible in the Southeastern US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Cool, wet and windy weather will develop in the Great Lakes region with areas of slushy snow accumulations possible.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Eastern US and especially across the Gulf Coast States and into the Northeast, where isolated flood concerns can't be ruled out. Meanwhile, more Pacific precipitation will develop in the Western US, including California once again with high elevation snow possible in the Sierra Nevada Range.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), snowfall accumulations will be possible across parts of the Great Lakes this weekend. We'll also see another surge of snowfall potential in the high elevations in the Western US, including the Sierra Nevada Range next week.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Climate pledge mobilizes $120M to focus on environmental justice"

"The Climate Funders Justice Pledge (CFJP) has mobilized $120 million in funding from major climate donors, the group tells Axios. Why it matters: The new milestone demonstrates the growing recognition that minorities and low-income residents tend to suffer the most from climate change, including extreme weather events such as heat waves and flash floods. It also signals growing momentum behind climate justice as a pillar of work in the climate space among major donors. Background: The effort was launched by the Donors of Color Network two years ago to help steer more resources toward groups run by, and focused on, communities of color. In addition to the funding, two major climate philanthropies — the Kresge Foundation and Pisces Foundation — have now exceeded the pledge's target to devote at least 30% of their climate funding to such groups."

"Apple's Weather chaos is restarting the weather app market"

"Forecast Advisor might be the best-kept secret in the weather business. It's a website, run by a company called Intellovations, that compares the accuracy of a dozen of the largest weather forecasters. You put in your ZIP code (it only works in the US), and it spits back a ranking of the services based on how correctly they predicted the weather over the last month and the last year. You might be shocked at how different the various sources are and how bad some of them are at predicting the weather. Depending on which weather app you use, this is extremely actionable information. Many third-party weather apps allow you to switch between data sources, so you can pick the one that's most accurate near you — AccuWeather, in my case — and enjoy an immediately more useful weather system."

"Power Grids Start to Sizzle as Heat Waves Portend Blazing Summer"

"It's only April, but hot weather is already starting to stretch power grids around the world, providing a sneak preview of what's to come in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Temperatures surged to a record in Thailand this month, while hotter weather in India boosted electricity demand to an all-time high. China's Yunnan province started power rationing, and Spain is bracing for a heat wave. The threat posed by climate change is pushing governments to prepare for another searing summer. Heat waves trigger spikes in electricity demand as consumers switch on air conditioners and fans, while droughts may dash hydropower generation."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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