Rain & Snow Mix PM Tuesday
A fast moving storm system will move through the Upper Midwest PM Tuesday with rain and snow potential across the region. The best chance of snow will be found across the northern half of the state, while rain will mostly fall across the Twin Cities metro.
Snowfall Potential
According to NOAA's NDFD, there will be some 3" to 6" amounts across parts of northern Minnesota. I could see a few higher tallies near the Red River Valley and also along the MN North Shore. Very little snow accumulation if any at all is expected in the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Outlook
Total liquid precipitation from this system could approach 0.25" to 0.50" across the northern half of the state. Much of the precipitation will likely fall in the form of rain across the Twin Cities, where up to 0.30" of liquid can't be ruled out.
Status of Spring
"March 13, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north, arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic. Kansas City, MO is 9 days early, Nantucket, MA is 35 days early. The West is a mix of early and late. Southwest UT is days to over a week late and Portland, OR is 2 days late. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. Spring bloom is 10 days late in Las Vegas, NV and 22 days early in Norfolk, VA. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple)."
See more from the National Phenology Network HERE:
"The worst cities in the U.S. for allergies"
"If you live in the U.S. Midwest, buckle up for an intense allergy season … for the rest of your life. Allergy season is becoming more intense across the country, lasting longer and with more pollen in the air. That's bad news for the more than 60 million people in the United States who suffer from allergy-related sneezing, congestion and watery eyes. And just like brands of tissues, not all pollen-induced sneeze-fests are equal. Some places have it especially bad. A report released Wednesday by the nonprofit Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America revealed last year's U.S. "allergy capitals." These were the most challenging places to live for those with pollen allergies. The rankings were based on pollen counts and took into account use of over-the-counter medication and the number of allergy physicians in the area."
See more from Washington Post HERE:
8th Snowiest Season at MSP
With more than 81" of snow, the MSP Airport is currently sitting at the 8th snowiest winter on record! We need less than 4" of additional snow to get into the top 5, but would need almost an additional 18" to get to the top spot.
Spring Flood Outlook
"Overall Outlook More Big Changes in the last two weeks... The early March updated outlook for spring flooding in the upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa River basins has been upgraded to well above normal, particularly on the Mississippi from St. Paul downstream. The addition of more rain and snow over the past two weeks has raised the amount of water in the snowpack to very high levels for this time of year. Factors that could help alleviate at least some of the snowmelt threat are becoming less relevant the longer the snowpack holds on. And as always, the threat of seeing major flooding will still depend on what kind of rainfall/temperature patterns we get later in March and April. Due to the nature of this year's flood potential, we will issue an additional spring flood outlook on March 23rd, 2023."
See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows milder temps in place over the next several days with a number of 40s possible through the end of the month. Note that we don't have any 50s in the forecast just yet. Interestingly, the last time we hit 50F or warmer was back on November 26th (53F). Last year, we hit our first 50F on March 15th (51F). On average, we hit our first 50F on March 4th.
Snow Depth
As of Sunday, March 19th, the MSP Airport had 5" of snow on the ground. Much of the state of Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin has a pretty significant snowpack. Nearly 2ft to 3ft of snow is on the ground near Lake Superior and more than 3ft on the ground near across parts of the U.P. of Michigan.
Consecutive Days With At Least 1" of Snow Depth
Believe it or not, the MSP Airport has had at least 1" of snow on the ground for 111 consecutive days as of March 20th, which is the 13th longest stretch on record. Warmer days are in the forecast, so we'll see how long this lasts, but we could get into the top 10 here by the end of the week.
Seasonal Snowfall
Many locations are nearly 2ft to 3ft above average snowfall for the season from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and north toward Duluth. Prior to this weekend's snowfall, MSP was sitting at 81.2" of snow for the season (since July 1st), which is the 5th snowiest start to any season on record and nearly 36" above average. Duluth has seen 122" of snow this season and the snowiest start to any season on record there and the 6th snowiest season on record.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, March 21st shows somewhat of a more active 2nd half of the day shaping up. Areas of snow will be found across the northern half of the state with some slushy accumulations, while areas of
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 20s and 30s across much of the state with a few lower 40s across far southern Minnesota. Temps will generally be around -5F to -10F below average with areas of rain and snow develop later in the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Tuesday will will start in the upper 20s in the morning and will warm into the mid 30s through the 2nd half of the day. We may see a little snow midday, but will likely turn to rain later in the day. Easterly winds will be strong throughout much of the day with gusts approaching 25mph to 30mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps on Tuesday will start in the upper 10s in the morning and will warm into the mid/upper 20s by the afternoon. It'll feel chillier during the day due to the stronger winds.
Weather Outlook
It'll be a fairly active week in the mid-section of the nation with several storm systems moving through. The first system will bring rain and snow to the Midwest with another rain and snow chance later Wednesday into Thursday. A more intense storm system will develop in the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms possible PM Thursday and Friday in the Southern US.
Severe Threat on Thursday & Friday
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again in the Southern US later this week with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps will warm into the upper 30s and low/mid through the rest of the week. Note that it'll be nearly -5F to -10F below average through Thursday. As we slide into the weekend, we'll warm into the low/mid 40s, which will be a little closer to average for this time of the year.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Weather conditions will be a little more active through the week ahead with areas of rain and snow possible. It won't be a washout this week, but we'll have a few chances of rain and snow.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the Western US. Warmer than average temps will settle in across the Gulf Coast at the end of the month and into early April.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the Western US and east of the Mississippi River.
Rain Brewing For Metro - Snow Up North
By Paul Douglas
You might be a Minnesotan if you mutter things like "Hey, 38 degrees feels pretty good!" We've all been beaten into submission by a snowier, icier winter, but The Great Meltdown of '23 has now begun. With any luck it will be gradual, pumping much-needed water into Minnesota's lakes and farms.
If we can avoid 50s, 60s and heavy rain for a few more weeks we may escape a worst-case flood scenario. Oddly enough, the flood risk is lower over the Red River Valley, but higher for the Mississippi and Minnesota watersheds, where 3-6" of water is locked up in the snow cover. Hoping we dodge a weather-bullet.
The next storm arrives later today with rain in the metro, an icy mix for central Minnesota, and 4-8" snow over the northern third of Minnesota by Wednesday. Storms later in the week should stay south of Minnesota. Highs reach 40F or above between now and early April.
I treated myself to a (futile) car wash yesterday, so I can see out my crusty windows. But this pattern? I'm leaving my driveway stakes in.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Metro rain. Snow north. Winds: E 10-20. High: 40.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and breezy. Winds: ESE 15-30. Low: 32.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Winds: W 10-20. High: 36.
THURSDAY: Becoming partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 24. High: 40.
FRIDAY: Chilly start, fine finish. Sunny. Winds: SE 3-8. Wake-up: 17. High: 27.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Storm stays south. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 30. High: 45.
SUNDAY: Cloudy, few sprinkles. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 31. High: 47.
MONDAY: Potential for wet snow. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 32. High: 38.
This Day in Weather History
March 21st
1953: A tornado hits the northern St. Cloud area. High winds from thunderstorms are experienced from Martin to Stearns County.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
March 21st
Average High: 44F (Record: 76F set in 1938)
Average Low: 27F (Record: -8F set in 1965)
Record Rainfall: 0.83" set in 1904
Record Snowfall: 3.9" set in 2008
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
March 21st
Sunrise: 7:13am
Sunset: 7:26pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 53 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 9 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 26 minutes
Moon Phase for March 21st at Midnight
1.2 Days After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than average across much of the nation with the exception of the Northeast, where temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. Areas of precipitation will fall across the Southwestern US, including California, where temps will be nearly -10F below average.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday looks fairly messy from the Central US to the Southwestern US. Areas of rain and snow will be possible with a few thunderstorms possible as well.
National Weather Outlook
Weather conditions will be fairly active through midweek as a few storm systems move from the Southwestern US to the Midwest with areas of heavy rain and snow. Some of the snow will be enough to shovel and plow with a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the Central US as well.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts across parts of the Central & Southern US with localized flooding possible. There will be areas of heavy precipitation in the Western US as well and especially in the high elevations
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Some spots in the Midwest could get some plowable snow once again.
Climate Stories
"Leading Denier Think Tank Uses AI Image of Dead Whale and Wind Turbines"
"Readers of the daily email newsletter of one of the country's leading right-wing, fossil fuel-funded think tanks were treated to a bizarre sight this week: an AI-generated image of a dead whale washed ashore on a beach in front of wind turbines, above a fearmongering story about offshore wind. Unfortunately, what is isolated to one newsletter today could spread around the right-wing ecosystem tomorrow. I cover climate and read breaking news about renewable energy every day; if there were a real photo of a dead whale in front of a wind farm like this, chances are I would have seen it. Still, the image gave me a jump when I opened the email from the Texas Public Policy Foundation. For a moment, I wondered if I'd somehow missed a huge story about a dead humpback that had washed ashore in front of a wind farm."
"Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts"
"The world is facing an imminent water crisis, with demand expected to outstrip the supply of fresh water by 40% by the end of this decade, experts have said on the eve of a crucial UN water summit. Governments must urgently stop subsidising the extraction and overuse of water through misdirected agricultural subsidies, and industries from mining to manufacturing must be made to overhaul their wasteful practices, according to a landmark report on the economics of water. Nations must start to manage water as a global common good, because most countries are highly dependent on their neighbours for water supplies, and overuse, pollution and the climate crisis threaten water supplies globally, the report's authors say."
See more from The Guardian HERE:
"California's historic snowpack eases drought concerns through spring"
With California's mountains buried under a historically deep snowpack and more storms on the way, the latest drought outlook from NOAA shows continuing improvement in the state's drought situation. The big picture: California has long experienced sudden swings between drought and flood, but the rapid fire assault by about a dozen atmospheric river storm events since December is on the extreme end of weather whiplash. Driving the news: The Drought Monitor shows no coverage of the top two most severe categories of drought, "exceptional" and "extreme," eliminating them from the state's drought map for the first time since 2020, NOAA stated Thursday. Statewide, the snowpack stood at 223% of average for March 16, and could break the seasonal record on April 1. This is typically the seasonal peak for the state's snow cover. When this snowpack melts, it will pose flooding dangers, particularly if any mild Pacific storms affect the higher elevations with rainfall, or spring heat waves occur.
