Quiet Thursday - Dangerous Heat Wave On The Way This Weekend

A warm day is expected on Thursday with mainly sunny skies in the Twin Cities as highs are expected to be about 5F degrees above average. It'll be a breezy day with sustained west winds at 10-25 mph and higher gusts.

Across northern Minnesota, we will watch the chance of an isolated shower or storm mainly in the morning hours. Otherwise mainly quiet weather is expected (besides those breezy conditions) with highs in the 70s in northern Minnesota and 80s across southern parts of the state.

As mentioned, it'll be a breezy day as well on Thursday with west winds gusting up to 40 mph, particularly in the midday and afternoon hours.

We will watch an elevated fire danger across southwestern/south-central Minnesota and into the Twin Cities metro Thursday with those very windy conditions and lower humidity values.

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As we head toward Father's Day weekend and early next week we will start to watch heat and humidity return to the region, with a dangerous stretch of 90s (and even potentially 100F) from Sunday through next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Here's a look at daily highs throughout this upcoming heat wave. The heat bubble will start to move into western Minnesota on Saturday with 90s expected, gradually moving east into Father's Day and early next week. For areas near the Minnesota/Dakota border, the warmest day of the stretch appears to be Father's Day Sunday, with the hottest temperatures (up near 100F) here in the metro Monday. While the heat will start to subside Tuesday, we could remain with highs in the 90s through Wednesday.

I can't stress this enough - we will be watching for the threat of heat illnesses this weekend into next week with this extended stretch of dangerous heat and humidity across the region. Make sure you are staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks if you have to be outside, and checking up on vulnerable groups.

And the highs Sunday and Monday across the state could be near or break records. The day with the best odds of breaking a record here in the metro will be on Monday when the record is 98F set back in 1933. Monday could see numerous records fall, including in areas like St. Cloud, Brainerd, Duluth, Hibbing, and Baudette.

As we take a closer look at Father's Day Sunday in the metro, it'll be a breezy and sweaty day with temperatures near 90F already by Noon and in the 90s through the afternoon hours under sunny skies.

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Precipitation chances are mainly low as we head through the next several days. A few showers and storms may be possible across northern Minnesota on Saturday and Sunday, but the next rain chance across central and southern Minnesota won't appear until Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dangerous Heat Wave On The Way This Weekend
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

June is one of the busiest months for tornadoes across the state of Minnesota, as 37% of all Minnesota tornadoes have occurred during this month according to the Minnesota DNR. Two noteworthy tornado outbreaks have occurred during the middle of June. On June 16, 1992, 27 tornadoes occurred across the state, including the most recent Minnesota F5 tornado which impacted Chandler and Lake Wilson. On June 17, 2010, the largest single-day outbreak in Minnesota history occurred with 48 tornadoes across 22 counties.

A long-duration period of dangerous heat and humidity will build heading into the Father's Day weekend and early next week. A four-day stretch of 90s is expected with a couple of days potentially flirting with 100F. When you combine that with temperatures unlikely to drop below 70F from Saturday to Tuesday we'll have to watch for heat-related illnesses.

Your water bill may be starting to go up - just like your electric bill. The next rain chance won't occur until the middle of next week in the metro.

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THURSDAY: Sunny. Gusts to 40 mph. Wake up 67. High 83. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Mainly sunny. Not as windy. Wake up 62. High 85. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Humidity starts to build. Wake up 62. High 86. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Sweaty, breezy Father's Day. Wake up 70. High 97. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Flirting with 100F, still breezy. Wake up 79. High 99. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Southern Minnesota storms. Wake up 69. High 91. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 16th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes, and 3 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 22 seconds

*Day With Most Daylight: June 20 - June 21 (15 hours, 36 minutes, 50 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrise?: June 13 - June 17 (5:25 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)

This Day in Weather History
June 16th

1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties.

1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32.

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On Thursday, we will watch shower and thunderstorm chances across the eastern United States into the Deep South and parts of the Central Plains. Some showers with a low off the coast will be possible in the Pacific Northwest. A few record highs will be possible in the southern Appalachians.

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As a heat wave grips the US, lessons from the hottest city in America

More from The Grist: "Summer is not something to look forward to in Phoenix, Arizona. For many in the hottest city in America, summer is something to survive. Masavi Perea, 47, knows this well. A former construction worker, he's now the organizing director of Chispa Arizona, a grassroots group that fights for clean air and water, healthy neighborhoods, and climate action in Latino communities. One of his top priorities is to protect the people in West and South Phoenix who are most likely to suffer, get sick, and even die from extreme heat. Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the U.S. Last year, there were 338 heat-related deaths in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located — the most of any county in Arizona. Like many other aspects of climate change, extreme heat highlights inequities, such as who lives in a neighborhood with plenty of shade and green space, and who lives in a neighborhood with more pavement than parks."

Minnesota climate goals jeopardized by stubborn tailpipe pollution

More from the Star Tribune: "Even after passing clean car rules last year, Minnesota lags in cleaning up carbon pollution from vehicle tailpipes, according to a state plan to reduce greenhouse gases. Transportation, led by cars, trucks and SUVs, is the single biggest contributor to the heat-trapping pollution produced in Minnesota. The problem looms large over a Thursday discussion by a group of advocates, researchers and government officials to revise Minnesota's Climate Action Framework."

More from the Energy Mix: "The countries of the world missed an "historic chance for a clean energy recovery" from the COVID-19 pandemic and saw renewable energy stagnate due to a surge of fossil fuel subsidies last year, the REN 21 Secretariat reports this morning in its Renewables 2022 Global Status Report. "In response to an unprecedented public health crisis, countries around the world had hoped to seize the post-COVID-19 opportunity for a green and equitable recovery," writes REN 21 Executive Director Rana Adib, in her foreword to the 238-page report. "Unfortunately, and despite record growth in renewable energy deployment in 2021, this historic chance has been lost." Adib points to the specific national policies behind an epic failure of policy and political will."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser