Quiet End To November - Sunny Week Expected

Saturday Was Beautiful!

Picture: D.J. Kayser

I went out to Lake Maria State Park with my wife on Saturday, and it was a perfect day to go on a hike! There were quite a few other people out there enjoying the day as well. You can see on this little lake that there was some ice on the surface despite temperatures in the 40s. With cooler temperatures expected this week, we could see more ice start to form on some of the area lakes.

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Warm Saturday... Much Cooler Sunday

And we saw very nice weather across much of the state Saturday, with highs climbing into the 50s across southern Minnesota. While the Twin Cities made it to 50F, we did see some areas approach 60F near Madison and Redwood Falls.

Sunday wasn't quite as nice with much cooler temperatures in place - in fact, our high was set early this morning in the Twin Cities.

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November Is Almost Over

It's certainly been a mixed November so far in the Twin Cities. We have seen almost 9" of snow - slightly above average - but all of that has melted due to above-average temperatures. This November will go down as the 32nd snowiest November on record. Our average temperature has been +5.2F above-average - tied for the 15th warmest November 1st-28th on record. But overall precipitation (rain and melted snow) will go down as below average with nothing expected Monday.

As we look at snow across the state in November, the most has fallen up near Duluth which has received just over 19" of snow so far. A lot of that fell on two days, with 7.3" on the 10th and 5.2" on the 15th. While areas like Duluth, St. Cloud, and the Twin Cities are above average, International Falls is 9.5" below average, and Rochester is only an inch below average.

And even though we've had all this snow across central portions of the state, we've had those warm temperatures that I just mentioned. The warmer weather has led to most of the snow so far this season (including what fell back in October) melting away, with nothing on the ground in most areas of the state. If you want some snow on the ground, you have to head to portions of the Arrowhead or to southeastern Minnesota. Even then it only amounts to a few inches in spots. As of Sunday morning, Duluth had 3" of snow on the ground with 2" in International Falls.

December Outlook

December (of 2020... even though this year feels like it has been a decade) starts Tuesday! As we look ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is showing the potential of warmer than average temperatures for the month across portions of southern and eastern Minnesota, with equal chances of above or below-average precipitation across the state. Some of the longer-term weather models don't show the next snow chance in the Twin Cities until closer to the middle of the month.

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Old Man Winter Still Pulling His Punch
By Paul Douglas

"...And what I'm trying to say is that nobody ever had a rainbow baby until he had the rain.." sang the late Jim Croce in "Tomorrow's 'Gonna Be a Brighter Day". All of us are waiting for the rainbow. It's coming.

Many of us thought the snowiest October on record was a harbinger of a brutal, snowy winter to come. Where did that 18 inches of snow go? My supernaturally-green lawn looks like something out of September. Cold blasts are often balanced by mild flings. A stronger Polar Vortex may confine the coldest air of winter to our north into much of December. Latest NOAA climate models suggest next month may be 2-6F warmer than average for Minnesota. We'll see. No storms brewing and I see 40s, even another shot at 50F by the second week of December.

For snow lovers it's feast or famine, right?

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Bright sunshine, chilly. Wake up 18. High 29. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Blue sky, a bit milder. Wake up 18. High 36. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, milder than average. Wake up 23. High 40. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, still quiet. Wake up 24. High 40. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Winter AWOL. More sunshine. Wake up 25. High 42. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
SATURDAY: Sunny holding pattern lingers. Wake up 28. High 44. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny with a stiff breeze. Wake up 29. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

This Day in Weather History
November 30th

2006: Lake effect snow occurs downwind of the larger lakes in Minnesota. Northwest winds from 8 to 12 mph accompanied an air mass in the single digits. This moved over lakes with water temperatures near 40 degrees. A cloud plume from Mille Lacs stretched all the way to Siren Wisconsin. Snow from Ottertail Lake and Lake Lida reduced visibilities at Alexandria to a few miles. Even some low clouds formed from Lake Minnetonka and were observed at Flying Cloud Airport.

2000: A surface low pressure system moves into extreme southwestern Minnesota from South Dakota. The heaviest snow reported was in the 6 to 8 inch range, and fell in a narrow band just southwest of the Minnesota River in and around the Canby (Yellow Medicine County) and Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) areas. Northeast winds rising out of the Minnesota river valley up the slopes of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota helped enhance snowfall amounts. The northeasterly winds between 10 and 20 mph were responsible for producing visibilities in the one to two mile range.

1991: A storm dumps 14 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in about 12 hours.

1896: Bitterly cold temperatures are reported across Minnesota. A low of 45 below zero occurs at the Pokegama Dam.

Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 30th

Average High: 33F (Record: 62F set in 1922)
Average Low: 18F (Record: -17F set in 1964)
Average Precipitation: 0.05" (Record: 0.84" set in 1934)
Average Snowfall: 0.5" (Record: 8.0" in 1934)
Record Snow Depth: 16" in 1991

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 30th

Sunrise: 7:30 AM
Sunset: 4:33 PM

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight? December 2nd (8 hours, 59 minutes, and 48 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise?: December 29th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*When Is The Earliest Sunset?: December 4th-13th (4:31 PM)

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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

Monday will be the first day since the 12th to see temperatures remain below freezing all day. Morning temperatures will start off in the teens, climbing to the upper 20s for highs. The good news is the sun will be out and winds won't be nearly as strong as they were Sunday.

Sunny skies are expected across much of Minnesota on Monday, with highs mainly in the 20s. A few areas out in western Minnesota will likely climb into the 30s and - if lucky - make it above freezing.

We will climb back above average for highs in the Twin Cities for the rest of the week with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 30s. It looks like a very quiet week of weather is ahead with mainly sunny skies expected each and every day.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, we will be watching a couple of systems across the nation. An area of low pressure will move across the eastern United States, producing showers, storms, and snow - potentially heavy in some spots. We'll also be watching a front in the Northwest producing rain, snow, and some areas of ice.

Through Tuesday evening, at least 1-3" of rain could fall across portions of the eastern United States. A foot or two of snow will be possible in the Cascades, with a half a foot near Cleveland and downwind of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie.

Catch a lunar eclipse during the full beaver moon this weekend

More from CNN: "Take a break from online holiday shopping this weekend to enjoy the full moon and a penumbral lunar eclipse. Both events will be visible early Monday morning. Lunar eclipses can only occur during a full moon, but a penumbral lunar eclipse is different from a total lunar eclipse. A penumbral eclipse occurs when the moon moves into Earth's penumbra, or outer shadow. This causes the moon to look darker than normal."

Black Holes Aren't As Bad As You Think

More from Wired: "Few things in the universe have a worse reputation than black holes, but physicist Janna Levin is hoping to change that with her new book The Black Hole Survival Guide. "People think of black holes as dense objects, and they get caught up in the 'monster truck' aspect, that they destroy things," Levin says in Episode 442 of the Geek's Guide to the Galaxy podcast. "And I think that it detracts from some of the more eerie and austere and gorgeous aspects of this very strange phenomenon.""

Sea Angels and Sea Butterflies Reveal Climate Change Consequences

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser