Welcome to the Arctic
Are you ready for winter? Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 to 10 days. This will be some of the coldest air of the season by far and it will also be some of the coldest air in the Midwest since February of last winter with daytime highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows. Get ready!
COLD Mid January Temperatures
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will see a significant temperature drop. Readings will be MUCH colder as we approach the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range, which will be some of the coldest air in 11 months.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 7" of snow this season, which is nearly -16.0" below normal snowfall.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday calls for very cold temps with readings holding in the subzero range all day. Feels like temps will be even colder and into the -20s & -30s much of the daylight hours.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Sunday will be in the subzero range all day with feels like temps even colder thanks to gusty NW winds around 25mph to 30mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Sunday
Feels like temps through the day will be around the -20s to -30s through the entire day. It will be VERY cold.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for Sunday will be nearly -20F to -30F below average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be well below average for this time of the year with readings nearly -10F to -25F below average through the week
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows well below average temps through the week ahead. The coldest readings will be through the early week time frame.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, warmer than average temperatures look to return to the northern tier of the nation and the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern US once again with the northern tier of the nation quieter than average.
Probably The Coldest Week Of Winter
By Paul Douglas
Welcome to what will probably be the coldest week of the winter. No records. Not exactly pioneer cold. Just cold enough. Highs in single digits and teens, a couple nights below zero. Wind chills dipping to 25 below at times. We missed the snow but we won't miss the arctic fling.
Speaking of busted weather forecasts, here's a dirty little secret. Our biggest fear, just below "napping through a tornado outbreak", is predicting flurries, only to wake up to a FOOT of flurries. That is unforgivable. Meteorologists, as a profession, overpredict snow. No kidding Paul.
Do we rely on weather models too much? Yes. Will AI (artificial intelligence) help? Probably. What we really need is more data points and better physics (math) in our weather models. Apologies to snow-lovers. I'm one of them.
This week's numbing winds come with a side serving of sunshine. The next chance of a snowy coating comes Thursday.
I'm always amazed how good 30s feel after a numbing week like this. A milder Pacific breeze returns next week.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Numbing. Feels like -25F. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 1.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and cold. Feels like -30F. Winds: NW 15-30. Low -9.
MONDAY: Some sun, a fine Yukon breeze. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 01.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a cruel wind. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: -4. High 7.
WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, I can feel my fingers! Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 4. High 17.
THURSDAY: Powdery PM snow possible. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 6. High 12.
FRIDAY: Another arctic slap. Few flakes. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: -2. High 4.
SATURDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: -5. High 11.
This Day in Weather History
January 14th
1981: Over 24,000 Canada Geese are present at Silver Lake in Rochester.
1952: A sleet and freezing rain storm develops across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires are knocked down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area is the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice up to 1 ½ inches on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 14th
Average High: 23F (Record: 48F set in 1980 & 1987)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -30F set in 1916)
Record Rainfall: 0.37" set in 1887
Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1967
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 14th
Sunrise: 7:47am
Sunset: 4:56pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 08 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minute & 42 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 22 minutes
Moon Phase for January 14th at Midnight
2.9 Days Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday looks very cold across the Central US with temps running nearly -30F below average for this time of the year.
National Weather Outlook For Sunday
Areas of snow will continue across the Great Lakes with areas of snow lingering across the Intermountain West and down into the Southern US.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather Outlook through Sunday shows heavy lake effect snow develop across the Great Lakes with another system moving from the Western US into the Central US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation moving through the Eastern US and the Western US over the next several days.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snow will be possible in the Great Lakes/Eastern US and also across the high elevations in the Western US. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"The iPhone SOS App Saved My Thru-Hike—and Possibly My Life"
"Our hiking columnist lost contact with his spouse in Colorado's remote San Juan Mountains. After a frantic search, he reached for his Apple smartphone. Outside's Trail Magic hiking columnist Grayson Haver Currin recently completed the triple crown of hiking when he finished the Continental Divide Trail alongside his wife, Tina. After three months of hiking on the Continental Divide Trail, my trip became thrown into chaos this past October in just three hours. The ordeal reduced my focus to a single and vexing question: where the hell was my wife, Tina? Over the ensuing 34 hours, that single worry ballooned into a dozen related terrors: Was she hurt or dead? Did she think I was hurt or dead? And was I at risk of actually dying alone, high in Colorado's San Juan Mountains, where the first gusts of winter had just ripped against the peaks? These worries spiraled back into one urgent question: Exactly how was I going to find Tina?"
"MAJOR CITIES ON THE US EAST COAST ARE SINKING"
"The research from Virginia Tech and the US Geological Survey confirms the decline at the ocean's edge well outpaces global sea level rise. Particularly hard hit population centers such as New York City and Long Island, Baltimore, Virginia Beach, and Norfolk are seeing areas of rapid "subsidence," or sinking land, alongside more slowly sinking or relatively stable ground, increasing the risk to roadways, runways, building foundations, rail lines, and pipelines. "Continuous unmitigated subsidence on the US East Coast should cause concern," says lead author Leonard Ohenhen, a graduate student working with Manoochehr Shirzaei, associate proifessor at Virginia Tech's Earth Observation and Innovation Lab. "This is particularly in areas with a high population and property density and a historical complacency toward infrastructure maintenance."
"2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth"
"In 2015, most countries, including Canada, signed on to the Paris Climate Agreement which set the objective of "holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing the limit of 1.5 C to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change." On Jan. 9, 2024, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) announced that their analysis confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record since 1850, when humans began burning fossil fuels at a major scale. The global average temperature was 1.48 C warmer than pre-industrial levels and much warmer (0.17 C) than 2016, the previous warmest year. The map of surface air temperature anomalies around the globe, compared to the 1991–2020 average, shows large geographical variations and that some of the warmest areas are in Canada."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
