Potential Snow Squalls And A Flash Freeze Friday - More Significant Storm Early Next Week?

Forecast loop from 10 PM Thursday Night to 6 PM Friday.

We are going to be watching a strong area of low pressure moving near the International Border Thursday Night into Friday, bringing the threat of snow across the state along with it. The most concentrated snow will be in northern Minnesota, where 1-3" of snow could fall mainly along and north of a line from Grand Forks to Duluth. Lighter totals are expected farther south, but it could be a bit more interesting - especially in the midday and afternoon hours. As the snow moves in during the late morning and afternoon hours in central and southern Minnesota, we will be watching the potential of snow squalls. These are intense snow bursts that move through a region, greatly reducing visibility for a short period of time and bring some quick accumulation. The main concern with them is travel, as these snow squalls can quickly lead to accidents and pile-ups. An example of one is from November 12, 2020, when one caused a 29 vehicle accident near Monticello and closed I-94 - click here to read more about that from the Star Tribune.

Again, the heaviest snow will be in northern Minnesota, where 1-3" of snow could fall. Lighter totals are expected farther south but could be heavier depending on where the snow squalls develop.

Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings cover northern Minnesota for Friday, as not only are we watching the heavier snow but strong winds - potentially gusting to 60 mph in parts of the Red River Valley. That would bring the likelihood of whiteout conditions, and the potential of road closures. Winds will also be stronger across parts of central and southern Minnesota later into the day, and due to that threat Wind Advisories are in place.

As we watch the snow (and even mixed precipitation changes across southern Minnesota) Friday, temperatures will greatly range from the teens up north (where colder air will have already started moving in) to the 40s in southwestern parts of the state.

Highs will climb up to around 30F in the Twin Cities during the midday hours before that front makes it to the metro with those snow squalls. After the front moves through, temperatures will quickly drop while winds quickly increase, with gusts up around 40 mph by the late afternoon hours. Roads are likely to become icy with a flash freeze.

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Forecast loop from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM Wednesday.

That high in the low 40s on Sunday is ahead of our next cold and snow chance moving in. As we head into Monday and Tuesday odds are increasing of measurable snow as another strong system forms across the central United States (a little farther north than the one impacting the region through the middle/end of this week). This could be heavy across southern Minnesota, but it really is too early to start throwing out totals. Just note that we could see (potentially significant) snowy impacts, including with travel, as we head into early next week, especially late Monday into Tuesday.

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Snowstorm Potential Early Next Week
By Paul Douglas

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Paul: please don't bury the lede: ECMWF and GFS guidance prints out over a FOOT of snow from Sunday night into Tuesday. Accumulating snow is likely early next week - and it looks (very) "plowable". Stay tuned for print and online updates.

Next week looks January-like (single digits & teens) but I see a run of 30s returning to Minnesota during the first week of March. Deep breaths.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, less wind. Wake up 0. High 25. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mild sunshine. Snow Sunday night. Wake up 23. High 39. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Colder with accumulating snow. Wake up 13. High 17. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: More snow. Significant totals possible. Wake up 3. High 8. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, digging out. Wake up -3. High 12. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 18th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 36 minutes, and 23 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 58 seconds

*When Do We See 11 Hours Of Daylight: February 26th (11 hours, 0 minutes, 39 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/Before 7:00 AM: February 23rd (7:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 6:00 PM: March 1st (6:00 PM)

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1979: This is one of the rare times that Lake Superior completely freezes over.

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The system that has been impacting the central U.S. with snow and ice Thursday will quickly move into the Northeast early Friday, still producing snow and ice concerns in New England and showers and storms along the East Coast. A system moving along the International Border into the Great Lakes will bring snowy and windy concerns from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.

A lot of the heavy rain and snow you see in the central U.S. will have fallen Thursday into Thursday Night, with 4-8" snow totals and 1-3" rainfall totals possible.

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More from the BBC: "More than 100 people have died in landslides and flash flooding in the Brazilian city of Petrópolis, officials say. The city, which is located in the mountains north of Rio de Janeiro, was hit by torrential rainfall. Houses in hillside neighbourhoods were destroyed and cars swept away as floodwaters raced through the city's streets. Search and rescue teams are combing the mud for survivors. Brazil's National Civil Defence said that 24 people had been rescued alive by Wednesday night local time."

Seas could rise 2 feet on Louisiana coast by 2050, 4 feet by 2100, federal officials say

More from NOLA.com: "Water levels along Louisiana's coast are expected to rise between 1½ and 2 feet by 2050, and could rise over 4 feet by 2100, according to new estimates of the effects of global warming on sea level rise announced Tuesday by federal officials.The 2100 estimates for the state are slightly higher than in a 2017 version of the report, which expected Louisiana to see about 3.87 feet of rise by the end of the 21st century.The report, authored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, also lays bare the havoc global warming will wreak along the nation's coastlines in the next few decades, predicting an average sea rise of 1 foot by 2050 and 2 feet by 2100."

Oil firms' climate claims are greenwashing, study concludes

More from The Guardian: "Accusations of greenwashing against major oil companies that claim to be in transition to clean energy are well-founded, according to the most comprehensive study to date. The research, published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, examined the records of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP, which together are responsible for more than 10% of global carbon emissions since 1965. The researchers analysed data over the 12 years up to 2020 and concluded the company claims do not align with their actions, which include increasing rather than decreasing exploration. The study found a sharp rise in mentions of "climate", "low-carbon" and "transition" in annual reports in recent years, especially for Shell and BP, and increasing pledges of action in strategies. But concrete actions were rare and the researchers said: "Financial analysis reveals a continuing business model dependence on fossil fuels along with insignificant and opaque spending on clean energy.""

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser