Population growth slows in Dakota, Scott counties

The southern end of the Twin Cities area is losing its dominance as the top center for population growth. And the core metro counties of Hennepin and Ramsey, with their shorter commutes and abundance of affordable multifamily units, are enjoying a resurgence.

Measured over the past decade, the south-metro counties of Scott and Dakota remain the No. 1 and No. 2 fastest-growing in Minnesota. But both have fallen back into the pack for the most recent year, according to the latest estimates from the Census Bureau, to be released today.

Instead, Hennepin County has jumped into the lead.

"In the early years of the decade, people were spreading further and further out," said Ryan Jones, a housing market analyst with the research firm Metrostudy. "Growth was happening in larger developments with more space and more room. Gas prices and energy weren't on the top of everyone's mind. But in the last three years or so, it's kind of all shifted. There's a resurgence closer in, and that will continue."

For the decade, Scott and Dakota are far out in front of all other Minnesota counties when it comes to sheer growth in numbers. Between them they added more than 75,000 people, more or less evenly split between the two.

But for the period from 2007 to 2008, Hennepin leads by a mile, adding more than 9,000 people. Five counties -- Washington, Wright, Ramsey, Scott and Dakota -- come next, but trailing far behind. Each grew by between 2,800 and 3,400 people for the year.

For Ramsey that represents a big jump in the rankings. It isn't in the top ten for the decade, but it's fifth for the most recent year.

Olmsted County growing

Another Minnesota county rising in prominence, when it comes to growth, is Olmsted, meaning the city of Rochester and its surroundings. The Mayo Clinic has been adding staff to prepare for the medical needs of an aging population.

In the Twin Cities area, homebuilders, developers and other experts agree that, in addition to more gas-price-conscious home buyers, two factors are likely behind Hennepin County's sudden rise in the numbers:

• Prices are falling, meaning that cities such as Maple Grove and Plymouth are becoming more affordable. People of modest means aren't being forced as much out into the hinterlands. Woodbury falls into the same category, helping push Washington up.

"National builders in particular have invested in that land and are wanting to keep their crews busy," said Wendy Danks, a spokeswoman for the Builders Association of the Twin Cities, "even if that means cutting into profits a lot."

• The two growing market segments are empty nesters and first-time home buyers, both often searching out condos and other multifamily units that can be built on stray scraps of land in fully developed cities such as Edina and Bloomington.

Bloomington ranked No. 1 last year in new housing units authorized, most in the form of larger projects. And Edina is seeing competition between a number of projects, including a new Westin hotel with condos attached and a 36-unit condo project called Burgundy Place near the intersection of Hwy. 100 and Interstate 494.

"It's fully financed, and we are building those units," said John Farrell of Edina Realty, who's marketing the latter. "With prices starting at $229,000, fully inclusive, no 'upgrade-upgrade-upgrade till it's 350,' we are seeing some interest."

Buyer interest is about 20 to 30 percent workers in the Pentagon Park area wanting to live close, he said. Another 50 to 60 percent are Edina residents, often wanting a smaller, turnkey pad in town as they begin a new life as snowbirds and the like.

David Peterson • 952-882-9023