Play In The Snow While You Still Can

Teens today with a subzero windchill give rise to mellowing temperatures over the weekend. 40s Sunday should be eclipsed by 50s Tuesday into Thursday. The 7-Day calls for close encounters with potholes and a car wash. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

March 11, 2022 at 3:30AM

Antarctic Sea Ice

"#AntarcticIce It's the time of year when Antarctic sea ice is at its minimum after summer and Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent after winter. Antarctic sea ice was record low. For the first time since the satellite record began in 1979, extent fell below 2 million square kilometers (772,000 square miles), reaching a minimum extent of 1.92 million square kilometers (741,000 square miles) on February 25, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). The Antarctic sea ice is notable for its #variability, both #seasonally, losing over 80 percent of its ice cover from its maximum to its annual minimum extent, and from year to year. While 2022 had a record low minimum, the highest minimum in the satellite record was observed as recently as 2015. Average #Arctic sea ice extent for February 2022 was 14.61 million square kilometers (5.64 million square miles), ranking fourteenth lowest in the satellite record."

Antarctic Sea Ice (World Meteorological Organization/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"March 9, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. After a slow start to spring across much of the Southeast, spring is progressing more rapidly, arriving a few days to a week early in the southern Great Plains, the Southern Appalachians, and parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia. The Washington, D.C. area is 5-10 days early. In western states, spring leaf out is patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Spring bloom has also started to arrive in southern states, days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia and South Carolina."

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Mostly Quiet in the Upper Midwest

Here's the weather outlook from AM Friday to AM Monday, which shows fairly quiet weather through the weekend. There might be a little light snow across the northern part of Minnesota late Saturday night and perhaps again Monday, but there aren't any major snow events expected anytime soon.

Weather Outlook From AM Friday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Friday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Friday shows cold and breezy weather in place. Temps will only warm into the teens, which will be nearly -25F below average for mid March. Thanks to strong winds, feels like temps will be in the sub-zero range all day.

Friday Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Friday shows readings hovering in the teens all day. Gusty NW winds up to 30mph will make it feel like a raw, wintry day for mid March.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Friday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Friday will be very cold for mid March. In fact, much of the day will feel like the sub-zero range.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Friday

Temps around the region on Friday will be very cold for mid March. In fact, temps will -20F to -30F below average for this time of the year. Winds will be quite breezy, so there could be a few areas of blowing snow, especially across the northern half of the state, where the snow depth is greater.

Weather Outlook on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

This was the snow depth as of Thursday. Note that many locations across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin still have close to a foot or more of snow. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities only has 3" on the ground.

Snow Depth As Of Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows highs running well below average on Friday and Saturday with temps nearly -15F to -25F below average. However, we'll quickly warm into the 40s on Sunday, which will be above average by a few degrees. However, on Tuesday, temps will flirt with 50F, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the week ahead shows quieter weather in place over the next several days. It'll be cold through Saturday, but we'll warm to near 50F by the middle part of next week, which will feel quite amazing.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, it'll be chilly over the next couple of days, but above average temps return as we head into much of next week. Temps will almost be April-like a few days!

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the nation. It'll feel quite nice after a cold end of the week & weekend ahead.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the eastern and northwestern part of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will be dry.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Play In The Snow While You Still Can
By Paul Douglas

The Inuit Native American Tribe of Baffin Island, Canada reportedly have about 50 different words for snow. "Muruaneq" means soft deep snow. "Kanevvluk" translates into fine snow.

No idea if they have a word for nasty-snow, dirty-snow or garbage-snow, but that may sum up the state of Minnesota's dwindling snow cover after a run of 40s and 50s next week.

Just how mild it gets depends on sunshine, wind and snow still on the ground. In March the sun's energy first goes into melting snow vs. warming up the air. By late next week we may have a dirty inch of slush (bigger piles in some yards) but keep that in mind if you want to play in the snow. Make it soon.

Teens today with a subzero windchill give rise to mellowing temperatures over the weekend. 40s Sunday should be eclipsed by 50s Tuesday into Thursday. The 7-Day calls for close encounters with potholes and a car wash.

With any luck our last subzero low of winter will come Saturday morning. That'll be #27. That's enough. Feeling lucky? Me neither.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Gusty, feels like -5F. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 17.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: NW 5-15. Low: -3. Feels like: -10F to -20F.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, still chilly. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 27.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, milder. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 42.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, few flakes? Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High: 40.

TUESDAY: Sunny and spectacular! Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 24. High: 54.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, touch of April. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: 58.

THURSDAY: Clouds increase, so do potholes. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 35. High: 51.

This Day in Weather History

March 11th

2009: Cold conditions arrive, with a new record for the lowest maximum temperature in St. Cloud for this date. The high temperature in St. Cloud was only 4 degrees, which broke the previous record lowest maximum temperature of 5 degrees that was set in 1948.

1878: Lake Minnetonka becomes ice-free due to one of the warmest winters on record.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 11th

Average High: 39F (Record: 66F set in 2012 & 2016)

Average Low: 22F (Record: -27F set in 1948)

Record Rainfall: 1.30" set in 1990)

Record Snowfall: 8.2" set in 1962

Twin Cities Almanac For March 11th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 11th

Sunrise: 6:32am

Sunset: 6:13pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 41 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 08 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 55 Minutes

Moon Phase for March 11th at Midnight

1.8 Days Since First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For March 11th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows well below average temps across the mid-section of the nation. Highs will be nearly -15F to -30F below average with record cold highs possible on Saturday from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

National Weather Outlook on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions into the weekend shows a large area of low pressure developing and quickly moving through the Eastern US. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the Southeastern US with areas of heavy snow developing on the northern side of the storm.

Weather Outlook Through Saturday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found in the Southeastern US as well as the Northeastern part of the nation. There will also be some heavy stuff in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through the weekend and into next week. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across the Northern New England States as well as the high elevations in the Western US.

ECWMF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Hurricanes, extreme weather linked to more U.S. deaths from several seemingly unrelated causes"

"The immediate impact of a major hurricane, tropical cyclone, or extreme storms are obvious. Homes and businesses disappear, and lives change forever. Now, a new international research project is revealing the hidden human costs of these weather events and climate-related disasters. Scientists from Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, Colorado State University, Imperial College London, and Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health report hurricanes and other U.S. tropical cyclones in recent decades contribute to an over 33-percent higher death rate from several major, seemingly unrelated causes in the months afterward."

"Weather In 'PERILS' - What Scientists Hope To Learn From Storms This Spring"

There is technically no such thing as "tornado season." A tornado can happen during any month of the year. As I write this on the morning of March 1st (the beginning of meteorological Spring), this period of time is also associated with a seasonal uptick in severe weather activity across parts of the United States. This Spring, scientists will engage in a new field campaign called PERILS (Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms). What is that and why is it important?

"In The Year 2080, Your City Will Feel Like It's 500 Miles Away"

"When you're older, your home town will feel different. That's true for everybody. But for people living today, the changes will be impossible to ignore. We usually measure climate change in terms of rising temperatures. But scientists say there's another way of thinking about it: spatial displacement. In a study from 2019, researchers found that cities in North America by the year 2080 will basically feel like they're about 500 miles (800 km) away from where they currently are – in terms of the drastic changes that are taking place in their climate. That's an average result – based on projections for 540 urban areas across the US and Canada – assuming carbon emissions stay on course at their current, dismal, business-as-usual rates. But this 500-mile trek isn't just a random city-hop in any random direction. It's almost universally headed south – where, in North America at least, places generally become hotter and wetter."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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