Phase Two Of Winter Storm/Blizzard Continues Into Thursday

The first round of snow Tuesday into Tuesday night brought the advertised 3-7" of snow across central and southern Minnesota (for the most part). The total through 6 AM Tuesday at MSP Airport was 4.1". In the direct metro, we did see a total of 6.5" out of Chanhassen, otherwise, the highest total in the state was 7.2" near Slayton.

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Forecast loop from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.

The second half of our significant storm will continue to impact the region Wednesday Night into Thursday, with moderate snow across the region and time periods where heavy snow will be possible. The timeframe where snow could be heaviest in the metro is Wednesday evening, and then in the few hours before and after sunrise Thursday. Snow will be on the way out as we head through Thursday with conditions slowly improving.

At least an additional 6-12" of snow will fall across central and southern Minnesota as the main area of low pressure moves southeast of Minnesota. I went with this map because it shows a little lower totals - I'm not saying that 12" from this Wednesday Night/Thursday batch of snow isn't possible, but I'm thinking what's pictured above will be the "floor" of what I would expect. This means snow tallies between the two phases of the storm should be between 10-18" for most, with some isolated 20" totals.

Winds will continue to stay strong into Wednesday Night and early Thursday, causing blowing and drifting snow and - for some - whiteout conditions. Wind will decrease later into the day Thursday.

Due to the ongoing winter weather threats across the state, Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place from Wednesday Night into Thursday.

So we'll continue to watch the snowstorm slowly work its way out of the state as we head through the day on Thursday. Colder air will be moving in, with highs only in the upper teens in the Twin Cities (and slowly falling through the day). However, highs won't make it above zero in parts of the Red River Valley.

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The good news is that - for the most part - we aren't tracking snowy weather for the weekend. Friday will be the coldest day of the next several with highs only in the low teens. A few snowflakes may be possible Friday Night, but they would not accumulate much. Sunny skies stick around both Saturday and Sunday with warming temperatures - mid-20s Saturday and mid-30s Sunday.

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Forecast model for 6 AM Monday

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Snow Tapers and Winds Ease Later Today
By Paul Douglas

Every storm is uniquely confounding, and this system has been no exception. People demand perfection in an imperfect world, and that applies to snowfall predictions. Thus, the much-advertised "nuisance-plowable-crippling" scale I started using back in the 80s, more or less admitting that predicting snow down to the inch is a form of madness.

Every weather model was showing a bullseye of 20-26" near the metro. Every one. That increased confidence levels. I was a little skeptical and predicted 12-20", which is still an impressive pile of powder.

We'll see how much falls, but I suspect most of us will be in the 13-18" range (total snow since Tuesday night) with a few 20" amounts. Still historic, just not quite as historic.

We are drowning in weather models, loud pundits and alleged prophets, doing the best we can with the tools at hand.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Snow tapers. 13-18" total. Wake up 19 – dropping daytime temperatures. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind N 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Some sun, a few flakes. Wake up -5. High 11. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, welcome thaw. Wake up 10. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Rain ending as slushy snow. Wake up 31. High 36. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, hints of March. Wake up 26. High 37. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Few rain showers, breezy. Wake up 31. High 39. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 50 minutes, and 44 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 2 seconds

*When do we see 11 Hours of Daylight?: February 27th (11 hours, 2 minutes, 59 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 6:00 PM?: March 1st (6:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
February 23rd

1981: Warmth returns to Minnesota with a high of 55 at Pipestone and a high of 52 at Luverne.

The system bringing blizzard conditions to the Upper Midwest will continue to work eastward, with snow ending in the Northern Plains but ice and snow continuing from the Great Lakes to New England. A system out west will also produce rain and snow.

From Wednesday through Friday 8-15" of snow is likely to fall across the Upper Midwest to New England. Heavy snow through Friday is also likely out west, especially in the Sierra where up to at least 5 feet is possible.

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Why the climate crisis may be coming for your margarita next

More from CNN: "Something to consider as you search for happy hours to celebrate National Margarita Day: The delicious concoction's main ingredient is threatened by changing weather and new strain on the agave plant's vital pollinator – the bat. Agave-based liquor like tequila and mezcal was the fastest growing spirits category in 2022, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the US. Analysts even say it might soon surpass vodka as the best-selling liquor in the country. But scientists from around the world have made it clear that climate change-fueled water shortages will continue to put enormous pressure on food production. Wine and spirits, unfortunately, are not spared from that forecast. A 2019 study found that the climate crisis, coupled with overgrazing from cattle ranching and other human activities, may disrupt the distribution and cultivation of agave, the main ingredient of tequila."

More from E&E News: "The flow of digital information through fiber-optic cables lining the sea floor could be compromised by climate change. That's according to new research published in the journal Earth-Science Reviews by scientists from the United Kingdom's National Oceanography Centre and the University of Central Florida. They found that ocean and nearshore disturbances caused by extreme weather events have exposed "hot spots" along the transglobal cable network, increasing the risk of internet outages. Damage from such outages could be enormous for governments, the private sector and nonprofit organizations whose operations rely on the safe and secure flow of digital information."

Why it's so hard to build new electrical transmission lines in the U.S.

More from CNBC: "Building new transmission lines in the United States is like herding cats. Unless that process can be fundamentally improved, the nation will have a hard time meeting its climate goals. The transmission system in the U.S. is old, doesn't go where an energy grid powered by clean energy sources needs to go, and isn't being built fast enough to meet projected demand increases. Building new transmission lines in the U.S. takes so long — if they are built at all — that electrical transmission has become a roadblock for deploying clean energy. "Right now, over 1,000 gigawatts worth of potential clean energy projects are waiting for approval — about the current size of the entire U.S. grid — and the primary reason for the bottleneck is the lack of transmission," Bill Gates wrote in a recent blog post about transmission lines. The stakes are high."

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- D.J. Kayser