People shuck coats and don shorts as metro area hits 76, breaking daily record

The Twin Cities hit a record 76 degrees Wednesday, making it the warmest Nov. 2 on record and following a pattern of increasingly warmer autumns in Minnesota.

Runners and bicyclists circling Lake Nokomis sported shorts, while dog walkers shed puffy coats in favor of short sleeves, grateful for the "bonus" days. Wind surfers even set out on the lake.

"I wouldn't mind winter shrinking a little bit," said Jeffrey Scroggins of Minneapolis, after taking a dip in Nokomis. "We don't need six months of it."

Minnesotans may need to get used to 70-degree temps in November, which have become a more common occurrence in recent years thanks to climate change, said Kenny Blumenfeld, senior climatologist with the State Climatology Office.

"Our Novembers have been getting warmer," he said. "It's been great for outdoor recreation … and for that fall harvest in agriculture. But it's kind of an enjoy-now, pay-later [scenario] … There is a downside to all of this really dry, agreeable weather and that's sort of creeping up on us."

The dry, warm days are worsening extreme drought conditions that have sapped streams, rivers and lakes of their normal water levels, affected farmers and halted river barges.

The dry, warm day along with the windy weather led the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources to issue new burning restrictions Wednesday, banning open burning of brush or yard waste across much of the state, including the seven-county metro area, due to the increased risk of wildfires.

The Twin Cities on Wednesday smashed the previous record high temperature of 72 degrees set in 1978. The record high also came close to surpassing the metro's all-time high November temperature of 77.

"The way that our climate is warming … has also included more unusually or anomalously warm days during parts of the fall season, including November," Blumenfeld said.

Besides 1978, the metro area has reached the 70s on Nov. 2 only three other times in 150 years: 1938, 2005 and 2015. The mild temps are expected to continue Thursday, though likely falling short of the record of 75 degrees set in 2020.

Most local November temperature records have been set in the last two decades. In 2020, for instance, heat records were set on four November days. That's because autumns are trending warmer and the frigid temperatures Minnesota is known for are being condensed into a shorter winter, said National Weather Service meteorologist Bill Borghoff.

"The pattern is pretty clear," Borghoff said. "We've been breaking lots of records lately in November."

Yet 2022 ranks only 47th for the warmest period from January through October in the Twin Cities. Last year was warmer, ranking third.

But if history is any indication, the warm fall weather isn't likely a precursor to a milder winter. November often ushers in some of the biggest weather swings of the year, and the local forecast calls for cooler temperatures starting Friday.

"This time of year, things go down so fast," Borghoff said. "No matter what happens, it's going to get a lot colder."

By the end of this month, the average temperature typically falls to 33 degrees — which may result in a shocking weather whiplash after this unseasonable warmth.