Predicting how much wildfire smoke will pass over a specific town, even a day in advance, is more snake oil than science. Canada is dealing with “Level 5” national preparedness, meaning full mobilization of firefighting resources with international assistance. There are fewer blazes than 2023, but more acreage scorched: 14 million acres, about the size of West Virginia.
Each blaze creates a meandering ribbon of smoke hundreds, sometimes thousands of miles downwind, nudged by low-level winds. Imagine a cobweb of smoky fingers streaming downwind, but not all following the same path. Along with predicting when and where flash floods will be most dangerous and snowfall down to the inch (at your house!), forecasting smoke intensity is hard.
Overall I expect less smoke this weekend, with a south wind, generous sunshine, and highs near 90 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Expect a swarm of thunderstorms Sunday night; maybe a shower Tuesday. Next week looks drier with crisp dew points in the 50s by Thursday. First faint hints of autumn? Uh-oh.
