Pasta prices up? Blame North Dakota

Pasta lovers should be praying for a dry September in western North Dakota.

Yes, North Dakota, which -- straight out of the who-knew? file -- produces almost two-thirds of the nation's durum wheat, a key ingredient for making pasta.

The wet spring reduced durum-wheat planting by 40 percent, and the price on the commodities market tripled. A damp September would further reduce the quantity -- and the quality -- of the crop and send pasta prices even higher.

"The harvest could be tough because durum wheat is very susceptible to losing quality if you get a rainfall," said Frank Manthey, who runs the durum/pasta quality program at North Dakota State University (NDSU).

Most affected will be restaurants whose menus are built heavily around fresh pasta, such as Broders' Cucina Italiana and Broders' Pasta Bar in south Minneapolis.

Owner Molly Broder, who buys 35,000 pounds of durum wheat a year, has been watching prices closely. "It has been creeping up continually, and we don't know when it will stop," she said. "It causes price creep on our menus, which we hate to see but has occurred this year."

While Broder has dealt with a 52 percent wholesale price rise this summer, grocery shoppers have not been hit as hard. Walt George, president of the nation's largest dry-pasta maker, told the Associated Press that prices have risen about 20 percent in recent months, to $1.48 a pound.

"When I go to the grocery, it does seem like the price of spaghetti has gone up," Manthey said. "But the price of a lot of groceries in general has gone up."

For pasta purists, durum wheat, which is made into semolina flour, is essential.

"It's what really gives pasta its structure, that 'al dente' mouthfeel," said home chef and cooking-class instructor Jen Antila of Minneapolis.

Even a relatively rain-free September will not assure North Dakota farmers of a high-quality crop, Manthey said.

"Oddly enough, if you get a heavy dew, you lose the quality of the grain, and in September, it's not uncommon to get a heavy dew," he said.

After the sharp drop in plantings this spring, the commodities market reacted quickly, said Frayne Olson, crops economist marketing specialist at NDSU. The price per bushel, which had been steady at around $5 for years, surged to $15 before eventually leveling off at $10 to $12.

"Right now the industry has a wait-and-see attitude," Olson said.

Production will be down regardless. After growing 70 million bushels of durum last year, North Dakota farmers might harvest just 25 million bushels this fall -- weather-permitting. Nationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects the national yield to be down from 111 million bushels last year to 59 million bushels.

While that might prompt further price hikes for fresh and dry noodles and the wheat itself, heat-and-eat items in which pasta is just a portion of the dish have not been affected much.

Among those who won't be affected by a spike is Antila, who buys at least 5 pounds of durum wheat a month to make pasta for herself and her cooking classes.

But she won't give up making pasta.

"It's a very therapeutic thing to do," she said. "Plus it's just so much fun."