Fall Color Update
Are you planning on trying to head out leaf-peeping this weekend? A lot of state parks in the northern half of Minnesota are either at or past peak now, but of course, you might still be able to find some good color in those areas! Most locations in southern Minnesota are between 25-75% color. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.
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Weekend Weather Outlook
As we look at the first day of the weekend in the Twin Cities, most of the day should be fairly dry with a mix of sun and clouds to partly sunny skies. The chance of some rain doesn't look like it'll move in until the evening and overnight hours. Morning temperatures will be in the low 60s with highs topping off in the upper 70s. This might be our last chance at making a charge toward 80F for the year!
Looking statewide, we will be watching the chance of showers and storms, especially as we head later into the day. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s across the state - a good 10-20 degrees above average for most locations.
As we see storms develop in the afternoon and evening hours, a few of them could be on the strong side out in western Minnesota. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for areas like Alexandria and Fergus Falls, with a Marginal Risk stretching farther east toward Bemidji, Brainerd, and St. Cloud. Large hail will be the greatest threat from the strong storms, but damaging winds can't be ruled out.
Here's a look at how everything could develop as we head through Saturday and Sunday (loop above goes from 7 AM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday). Showers will quickly form and move across portions of the state heading into the afternoon hours Saturday, with stronger storms possible for the evening and overnight period. By Sunday morning, most of the storms will be off across the northern half of Minnesota, pushing out during the day. However, this model shows the potential of redevelopment in northern Minnesota during the late Sunday afternoon hours.
As the above forecast loop showed, the best chance for continuing showers and storms on Sunday will be up across northern Minnesota. This system is bringing in cooler air, with highs in the 60s across western and northern Minnesota and 70s in southeastern portions of the state.
We will continue to watch storms on Sunday that will be capable of severe weather, mainly north of the Twin Cities, including areas like Bemidji, Duluth, and Ely. The greatest threat would be large hail in the morning and afternoon hours.
The heaviest rainfall amounts through the weekend will fall across northern Minnesota - particularly along the North Shore and in northwestern portions of the state - where some 1-3" rainfall amounts will be possible.
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More Rain Chances Into Next Week
The break in the rain Sunday won't last long in the Twin Cities, as another system moves in from the southwest on Monday. It's starting to trend farther east, so not a lot of rain is expected to fall across the region at this time with that one. A stronger system approaches toward the middle of the week, with showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday. That will finally help bring temperatures back to around average across the region in the upper 50s/low 60s.
By next Friday morning, at least 2-3" of rain is expected across northern portions of the state, with rainfall amounts closer to an inch as you head into the metro. It'll definitely be some much-appreciated rain to help replenish the ground and to keep trying to pull us out of the drought conditions before winter comes and the ground freezes (and the snow starts flying!!). I do have to say - after the storm systems expected over the next week, fall color areas that are around or past peak may not have many leaves left on the trees by next weekend!
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A Mellow October To Remember
By Paul Douglas
I am sitting out on the deck in a weather-induced stupor. Incredulous, thankful and perpetually paranoid. Will we pay a steep price for a super-sized September?
My neighbor is cutting his overgrown lawn, kids (and their parents) are wandering the streets in shorts, a guy on a waverunner just waved - a look of muted amazement on his face. And no, it can't last too much longer. Or can it?
According to NOAA the period June through September was the warmest on record for the nation, and some of that simmering warmth has spilled into autumn, delaying fall color by a few weeks.
If the sun stays out an extra hour or two today we may hit 80F, before a rowdy gang of T-storms rumble into town tonight. 70s linger on Sunday with a pop-up PM storm, best chance north of MSP, where a few towns may pick up over 1" rain this weekend. Drought has eased but we need more super-soakers, especially up north.
60s return next week but NOAA's GFS model shows more 70s in 2 weeks. How long can our luck hang on? Stay tuned.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: Warm sun. Storms tonight. Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Still mild. PM shower or T-storm. Wake up 63. High 77. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
MONDAY: Unsettled with another shower. Wake up 56. High 69. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 55. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Windswept rain, could be heavy. Wake up 57. High 67. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 15-25 mph.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, still windy. Wake up 54. High 64. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 20-40 mph.
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, breezy. Wake up 50. High 62. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 9th
*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 13 minutes, and 37 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight? October 15th (10 hours, 58 minutes, and 23 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 9th
1970: Montevideo sets a record low high temperature of 35.
1938: Forest fires on the 9th and 10th claim 21 lives in northern Minnesota.
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National Weather Forecast
On Saturday, an area of low pressure will be moving out of the Great Basin into the upper Midwest, producing showers and thunderstorms. Some areas back into the Rockies could see some snow as well from this system. An area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast that has a 40% chance of tropical formation will continue to produce some showers for the Mid-Atlantic, and a cold front down in Florida will produce storms. A new system moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring rain and Cascade snow.
The heaviest rain through Sunday evening is expected across portions of the Northern Plains, where some areas in North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota could see over 3" of rain fall. Meanwhile, some higher elevation mountains in Wyoming and Utah could see over a foot of snow.
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China orders coal mines to increase production as power shortages bite
More from CNN: "China has ordered its coal mines to ramp up production in a bid to ease a power crisis, as the country struggles to balance its need for electricity with efforts to tackle the climate crisis. Authorities in Inner Mongolia, China's second largest coal-producing province, have asked 72 mines to boost production by a total of 98.4 million metric tons, according to state-owned Securities Times and the China Securities Journal, citing a document from Inner Mongolia's Energy Administration. The order, which was approved on Thursday, took effect immediately, the state media outlets said. The figure is equivalent to about 30% of China's monthly coal production, according to recent government data. Inner Mongolia's energy authorities didn't immediately respond to a request for comment by CNN Business."
16-Million-Year-Old Tardigrade Found Preserved in Amber
More from Gizmodo: "Though it proved difficult to spot, scientists managed to find an itsy-bitsy tardigrade trapped inside a chunk of Dominican amber. The unprecedented discovery of an ancient tardigrade is shedding new light onto this remarkably durable group of microscopic animals. Some 16 million years ago, a single plop of tree resin managed to capture a fragment from a flower, three ants, and a beetle. That's an impressive haul, but more remarkably, the resin also trapped a wayward tardigrade. The resulting chunk of amber is only the third known tardigrade fossil and the first tardigrade fossil from the Cenozoic, the current era that began 66 million years ago with the extinction of all non-avian dinosaurs."
How Biden Can Take On the Climate Crisis by Himself
More from The American Prospect: "President Biden has failed to live up to his promise to progressives to be a climate president. U.S. emissions continue to rise. Last week, 23 unique plant and animal species were declared extinct. A catastrophic pipeline oil spill in California is actively killing fish, birds, and wetland ecosystems. And in violation of treaty rights that are constitutionally the supreme law of the land, Biden allowed Enbridge's Line 3 tar sands pipeline to become operational on October 1, which will add emissions equivalent to 50 new coal-fired power plants and will inevitably spill. Biden is standing in support while water protectors are violently arrested and the Anishinaabe peoples living in the path of the project are terrorized and abused. All of this is separate from the fate of the Biden agenda, encapsulated in the Build Back Better reconciliation bill. If it passes, it will be an unprecedented investment in this country's social safety net and clean-energy future, perhaps the last best chance at meaningful climate action. It will also be completely insufficient, trillions less than the investments needed and dwarfed by the incalculable value of preserving a habitable planet."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
