Partly sunny and not as windy Monday - Heavier rain expected Monday Night into Wednesday

It was a blustery weekend of weather here in the upper Midwest, with windy conditions observed both days. On Saturday, the strongest winds were mainly out in western portions of the state. The peak airport wind gust was 47 mph in Crookston. Fargo, meanwhile, saw a peak of 53 mph.

And windy weather continued on Sunday, when a Wind Advisory was in place across southern Minnesota. Through about 4:30 PM, the peak wind gust had been 52 mph in Worthington.

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While we didn't see record highs on Saturday in the Twin Cities, we did up in northern portions of the state. The high of 64F in International Falls Saturday beat the previous record of 61F back in 2012 and 1987. The record high in Baudette was 59F in 2012. We also saw records tied or broken in Fargo, Jamestown, and Sisseton.

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We can see the effect that the warmer temperatures and stronger winds have had on our snowpack the past few days with areas of snow across southern Minnesota greatly decreasing from the midday hours Friday to Saturday. We can also see the snow decreasing across northern Minnesota as well, though it is hanging on in parts of the Arrowhead. On these maps you can also see the ice still on area lakes for the moment. As of Sunday morning, there still had been no ice outs reported to the Minnesota DNR, though I would expect that to change this week with heavy rain in the forecast.

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Monday will once again be several degrees above average across the state, as highs range from the 50s in the southern half of the state with 40s from Alexandria to Duluth northward. A few showers will be possible in southern Minnesota with that stalled out front in southeastern portions of the state and our next system getting ready to impact the state starting to move northward. Cloudier skies are expected over southern Minnesota, with sunnier conditions the farther you head north.

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We are watching a system which will bring a wet Tuesday to the region, with precipitation lingering into Wednesday as well. Models have been back and forth on some of the details, but seem to be aligning a little better to show that this system will be mainly rain for many areas of the state, with some snow possible at time (particularly at night/morning) in portions of western and northern Minnesota. Loop above is the American model from 7 PM Monday through 1 AM Thursday.

Here's a look at the potential moisture and snow that could fall - a good 1-2" of precipitation from southern Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Again, some of this will be in snow in portions of the state. (Note: some of this precipitation is from the rain moving through Sunday night, but those totals will be fairly light.)

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More Confident About An Early Spring
By Paul Douglas

I remember spring of 2012, when the metro hit 0F in mid-March and some flowers were in bloom before April 1. I don't expect a light-switch spring in 2021, but at this rate lawns may soon green up, ice coming off area lakes earlier than usual.

March 2021 is almost 9F warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Low 60s felt good yesterday, considering we could be butt-deep in snow drifts now.

13" fell at MSP on this date in 1952. According to NOAA as much as 6" of glaze ice toppled trees, towers and powerlines in Duluth and the Arrowhead on March 22, 1991. I'm supremely content with gusty winds and mud.

Daytime highs wobble in the 40s and 50s into late March but the GFS model expands an early season warm bubble into town first week of April, with 60s, maybe a few 70s?

An early spring green-up? Yep.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. Wake up 39. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cold rain, ending as snow up north. Wake up 37. High 43. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Blue sky returns. Wake up 30. High 50. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun. Wake up 28. High 47. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Unsettled, few rain showers. Wake up 36. High 48. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Breezy with more sunshine. Wake up 32. High 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

This Day in Weather History
March 22nd

1991: A historic ice storm begins during the afternoon and ends as heavy, wet snow on the 23rd. This event coated the city of Duluth with as much as 6 inches of ice. The 850-foot WIDO TV tower was toppled. 4 million pine trees were damaged or destroyed with the heaviest damage at G.C. Andrews State Forest near Moose Lake in Pine County.

1952: A snowstorm dumps 13.2 inches on the Twin Cities.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
March 22nd

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
March 22nd

Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 16 minutes and 42 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 9 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 12.5 Hours Of Daylight? March 27th (12 hours, 32 minutes, and 27 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7 AM?: March 28th (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 7:30 PM?: March 24th (7:31 PM)

On Monday, a system working through the central United States will bring the potential of storms to the Southern Plains, with showers and even a mix of rain/snow as you head into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. Another system in the Pacific Northwest will bring rain and snow to the region. Most of the eastern United States should be dry, with just some occasional showers in eastern North Carolina and in portions of Florida.

Through Tuesday evening, the heaviest rain will fall across portions of the central United States, where up to 3" of rain could fall. 1-3 feet of snow will be possible in some of the mountain ranges out west.

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Long-Dormant Volcano in Iceland Awakens in Fiery Eruption

More from Earther: "A long-dormant volcano erupted on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula on Friday, shooting a fountain of lava that lit the night sky roughly 19 miles (30 kilometers) southwest of the nation's capital, the Icelandic Meteorological Office reported Friday. The eruption, estimated to be the peninsula's first in almost 800 years, follows weeks of increased seismic activity in the region. "The eruption is considered small at this stage and the eruptive fissure is app. 500 m [546 yards] long. The magma area is app. 1km2. [0.4 square miles]," the IMO said in a tweet. "Lava fountains are small.""

More from WIRED: "Andrew Christ remembers the day he became part of "this 60-year, weird, wild Cold War story." It was 2019, and the University of Vermont researcher was just four days away from defending his dissertation. He was beyond stressed and had better things to do than help examine an ice core sample drilled decades earlier. The core was subglacial sediment and rock, taken from below a mile of ice in 1966 at Camp Century, an American research base in Greenland that had served as cover for a secret—and failed—military project. Since being pulled from beneath the ice sheet, the sample had been separated from the rest of the core, had criss-crossed the Atlantic, was lost, and then rediscovered. But it had never been analyzed."

Summers could last for half the year by 2100

More from The Guardian: "Our summers are already about 20% longer than they used to be, and if the climate crisis continues unabated then northern hemisphere summers could cover nearly half of the year by 2100, making them more than twice as long as they were in the 1950s. And unlike their counterparts of the 1950s, future summers will be more extreme, with heatwaves and wildfires more likely. Researchers used historical climate data to measure how much the seasons have changed already. They defined summer as the onset of temperatures in the hottest 25% for that time period and winter as the onset of the coldest 25% of temperatures. Their results, published in Geophysical Research Letters, show that the average northern hemisphere summer has grown from 78 to 95 days between 1952 and 2011, while winter has shrunk from 76 to 73 days. Spring and autumn have contracted too."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).