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Partly Cloudy Sunday With A Few AM Showers North Of I-94

Another mainly fantastic Fall day is ahead on Sunday, once we get past the potential of a few scattered AM showers north of I-94. Highs will be in the 60s through Monday before popping (for one day) into the 70s Tuesday. - D.J. Kayser

October 8, 2022 at 11:00PM
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Snow Up North From Friday Morning

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AM Showers North Of 94, Otherwise A Sun/Cloud Mix

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

As we head through the morning hours on Sunday we could see a few showers mainly north of I-94. If these areas do see any rain, it won't add up to much across the region.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

That potential batch of morning rain (mainly north of the metro) will drag a few clouds in during the morning hours. Skies should clear out, though, into the afternoon hours. Morning temperatures won't be as cool Sunday morning as they were Saturday morning - only dropping into the low 40s - with afternoon highs climbing into the low/mid-60s.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Again, any rain showers you see on the statewide map will be mainly early in the day, with sunnier skies across much of the state during the afternoon hours. Highs will range from the low 50s in the Arrowhead/North Shore to near 70F in southwestern Minnesota.

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Warm Through Mid-Week

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

We will continue to see a warming trend through the beginning of the week, with highs by Tuesday (courtesy of a warm front) popping into the mid-70s, nearing 80F out in western Minnesota. That'll be the end of the "warmth party" for a little while, though, with a couple of cold fronts moving through in the Wednesday/Wednesday Night timeframe, bringing Canadian cooler air back in for the second half of the week. The best rain chance looks to be Tuesday Night into Wednesday with the first front but not much precipitation is expected at the moment. Some light rain or snow could impact parts of northern Minnesota Thursday due to the area of low pressure moving across southern Canada with the second cold front.

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Fall Color Update

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

We continue to progress through the Fall color season across the state, with many State Parks reporting Peak or Past Peak conditions in northern Minnesota. Farther south, most areas are sitting between 25-75% color. Nerstrand Big Woods State Park, south of the metro, said on Saturday: "The leaves are starting to change at an increasing pace. Right now there is still a lot of yellow on the maple, basswood, aspen, and ash trees. Cooler temperatures this weekend will likely help more of the red and orange start to appear. Splashes of these colors can be seen on some of the maple, dogwood, sumac, and oaks in the park." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

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(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.

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Colder October Fronts = Gusty Winds

By Paul Douglas

"Optimist". Noun. Minnesotan with a convertible, swimming pool, or boat in the water in mid-October. On our lake there is an unofficial competition to see who can leave their dock and boat in the water longest (and conversely the first to be out on the water in the spring). I look on in bemused amazement.

The problem with October boating is the wind. As colder air seeps southward out of Canada rapid temperature swings can whip up fierce winds and towering whitecaps. That said, go for it. You have the freedom to get tossed around on an angry lake.

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Winds ease a bit today with enough sunshine for low 60s - close to average. A lonely shower may pop up north of the metro area. We could hit 70F Monday with peak warmth coming Tuesday (mid 70s and a stiff south breeze).

Showers and a few thunderclaps arrive late Tuesday with some .25 to .50" rainfall amounts possible. Not the soaking we need right now.

A couple of cold fronts arrive late in the week, with a coating of snow up north next Sunday. Uh oh.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Mild sun, shower up north. Wake up 44. High 63. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 7-12 mph.

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MONDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake up 43. High 69. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Mild breeze. Showers, storms late. Wake up 54. High 75. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Windy and cooler, PM showers. Wake up 48. High 53. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Chilly and raw with a few sprinkles. Wake up 43. High 49. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Wake up 33. High 55. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Windblown showers. Wake up 51. High 57. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 20-40 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 9th

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 17 minutes, and 25 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
October 9th

1970: Montevideo sets a record low high temperature of 35.

1938: Forest fires on the 9th and 10th claim 21 lives in northern Minnesota.

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National Weather Forecast

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A lot of the nation will be quiet on Sunday. We'll be watching three main areas of precipitation: one in the Southwest due to an upper-level low, one in southern Florida ahead of a cold front, and a third from the Great Lakes to New England ahead of a front and due to some lake-effect rain.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The heaviest rain through Monday evening will be across portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains, where 1-3" could fall across portions of New Mexico and western Texas.

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Mississippi River basin is getting wetter as climate change brings era of extremes

More from the Star Tribune: "In the early morning hours of July 26, many St. Louis-area residents awoke to floodwater filling their homes, or to the din of car alarms from vehicles overtaken by murky brown water. Too much rain was falling far too fast. The weather system dumped more than 9 inches on St. Louis — about a quarter of the city's annual average — compressed largely within a few hours. That same week, torrential rain storms settled on Eastern Kentucky, where up to 16 inches fell and water rushed into people's homes so swiftly that many didn't get out in time. Forty people were killed in Eastern Kentucky. Two people died in St. Louis.Longtime residents in both regions, no strangers to severe storms and flooding, said they'd seen nothing like it before — and they're right."

As Himalayan Glaciers Melt, a Water Crisis Looms in South Asia

More from Yale Environment 360: "Spring came early this year in the high mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan, a remote border region of Pakistan. Record temperatures in March and April hastened melting of the Shisper Glacier, creating a lake that swelled and, on May 7, burst through an ice dam. A torrent of water and debris flooded the valley below, damaging fields and houses, wrecking two power plants, and washing away parts of the main highway and a bridge connecting Pakistan and China. Pakistan's climate change minister, Sherry Rehman, tweeted videos of the destruction and highlighted the vulnerability of a region with the largest number of glaciers outside the Earth's poles. Why were these glaciers losing mass so quickly? Rehman put it succinctly. "High global temperatures," she said."

Climate Risk Assessments Missing from 98% of Company Financial Reports

More from 24/7 Climate Insights: "Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. If Mark Twain were commenting on today's world, he might say, "Everybody talks about climate change, but 98% of the time, nobody intends to do anything about it." He'd probably say it better. In any event, that may be the nutshell version of a new report published Thursday by Carbon Tracker, an independent financial think tank that analyzes the effect of the energy transition on capital markets. For its second annual report on the absence of climate risk assessments in financial reporting, Carbon Tracker reviewed the audited financial statements of 134 "highly carbon-exposed companies" and found that 98% of those companies failed to offer enough information to show how the companies consider the financial impact of "material climate matters.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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