6th Warmest Meteorological Fall On Record Continues
Believe it or not, MSP is sitting at its 6th warmest Meteorological Fall (September 1st - November 27th) on record. The warmest such period was back in 1931. With temperatures as warm as they're expected to be through the end of the month, I wouldn't be shocked to see us bump into the top 5 warmest meteorological falls on record.
Well Above Average Meteorological Fall
The image below shows our temperature anomaly over the last 90 days, which is virtually meteorological fall (September - October - November). Note the warmer oranges & reds that stretch from the Central US, through much of Canada and north to the Arctic regions. Pretty remarkable...
5th Warmest Year (So Far) On Record At MSP
Not only have the last few months been warm, but 2021 as a whole has been remarkably warm as well. In fact, MSP is currently sitting at its 5 warmest year (so far) on record. The warmest January 1st - November 27th was back in 2012.
Snowfall So Far This Season
Take a look at the snowfall so far this season across the region. Note that most locations have seen some snowfall, but we are running well below average with the biggest deficit in Duluth, which is nearly -10" below average since July 1st. Minneapolis has only seen 1.2" of snow, which is the 27th least snowy start to any season on record.
Snowy Northern Minnesota
Much of Minnesota is snow free. However, there are a few locations closer to the international border that have snow on the ground. Here's a look at Birchdale, MN, which is located near International Falls, MN.
Snow Depth Across The Region
Here's a look at snow depth across the region from this weekend, which shows minimal snow cover across the northern third of the state. The greatest snow depth was reported in International Falls, where 4" was on the ground. Meanwhile, folks in the southern two-thirds of the state are snow free.
Snow Depth Across the Midwest
It's been a slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Other than a little snow across the international border and the Great Lakes, there doesn't appear to be much snow on the ground around the region.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The simulated radar from AM Monday to AM Saturday shows fairly quiet weather across much of the Midwest. There might be a few weak systems that scoot across the Great Lakes with some light snow accumulations, but there doesn't appear to be any close to home through the week ahead.
Light Snow Potential Monday in NE Minnesota
According to the HRRR Model, there will be some light snow accumulations across the Arrowhead of MN through the day Monday. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 2" to 3" in the extreme NE corner of the state.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook continues to show very little precipitation potential across the state. The best chance will be across northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, but amounts will be quite light.
Drought Update For Minnesota
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 3% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 58% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 88% 3 months ago. Nearly 52% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -6.33" below average since January 1st, which is the 47th driest January 1st - November 27th on record.
Monday Weather Outlook
Monday will be another mild day with temps warming into the mid 40s, which will be nearly +10F above average for the end of November. There will be a mix of clouds and sun through the day with breezy winds turning to the WNW later in the afternoon.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Monday show readings starting in the mid 30s in the morning and warming into the mid 40s by the afternoon. There will also be a sun and cloud mix with breezy winds turning to the WNW through the day. Wind gusts could approach 25mph.
Weather Outlook For Monday
High temps across the region on Monday will be very warm for the end of November. Highs across the state will warm into the 30s in the NE part of the state, where areas of snow will fall. Meanwhile, folks in the SW parts of the state could see highs nearing 60F, which will be near +20F above average and even close to record highs.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The next several days will be well above average for the end of November and early December. In fact, highs may even warm close to 50F in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, which will be nearly +15F above average!
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The weather outlook for the weekend ahead shows very mild and quiet weather. Highs will warm into the 40s (even near 50F on Wednesday) with generally sunny skies. We are getting indications of a potential storm system moving in late next weekend. It's still WAY too early to tell, but stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temperatures will be well above average over the next several days, which will take us into the early part of December. However, there could be some chillier air that moves in early next week after a potential storm system late next weekend and early next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows well above average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially the Southern & Southwestern US. Meanwhile, there will be chillier air closer to the Great Lakes.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dry weather will be in place across much of the Central US, including the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the northwestern US will have a better chance of precipitation.
Outlook: Fickle Winters In A Warming World
By Paul Douglas
Consider 2021 a preview of coming attractions. This is Minnesota. There will be snow, and cold fronts too numerous to count. But our legendary winters may lose some of their ferocity.
Good news for the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce and retirees deciding to stay put - potentially bad news for winter sports lovers, as snow cover becomes more erratic - with short, concentrated bursts of bitter air becoming the exception, not the rule.
NOAA data shows Twin Cities autumns have warmed 3.8F since 1970. Only 1.2 inches of snow fell during Meteorological Autumn (September 1 - December 1), a tie for 27th least snow since 1872.
And yes, winter is getting off to a late start. A potential weekend snow event has evaporated, but colder air arrives next week, and a few inches of snow may fall north of MSP Tuesday, with coat-worthy weather most of next week. It'll be chilly, but not polar.
Meanwhile expect 4 days 40s this week; a clipper sparks few RAIN showers on Wednesday, December 1. Huh? Where am I living again??
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Clearing skies, windy. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 49.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 31.
TUESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, less wind. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 41.
WEDNESDAY: Mild with a few rain showers. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: 50.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High: 43.
FRIDAY: Windy, a little light snow up north. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 31. High: 37.
SATURDAY: Some sun, a chilly breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 32.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, windy again. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 25. High: 43.
This Day in Weather History
November 29th
1991: Parts of central Minnesota receive heavy snow including a record 16 inches of snow in New Ulm.
1835: A low of 11 below zero is reported at Ft. Snelling.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 29th
Average High: 33F (Record: 62F set in 1998)
Average Low: 19F (Record: -25F set in 1875)
Record Rainfall: 1.38" set in 1991
Record Snowfall: 12.6" set in 1991
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 29th
Sunrise: 7:28am
Sunset: 4:34pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 5 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 39 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 45 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 29th at Midnight
2.8 Days After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows cooler than average temperatures in the Eastern US with areas of light snow possible in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, folks in the Western half of the nation will generally be warmer than average with record highs possible across the Plains and along the Front Range.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through early next week shows generally quiet weather across much of the nation. However, there will be areas of light precipitation along the northern tier of the nation
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and across parts of the Great Lakes Region. However Many locations across the Southern Two-Thirds of the nation will be dry.
Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential through next weekend, which shows heavier snow potential across the northern tier of the nation. It's too early to tell, but there could be some snow potential late weekend across parts of the Midwest. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"North American monsoon triggered by air currents over Mexico mountains"
The North American monsoon is caused by the flow of air over mountains, according to computer modelling. It may be one of the only monsoons to be triggered this way. Monsoons typically occur in the summer when land rapidly warms, which transfers energy to the atmosphere above, creating air circulation patterns that can produce heavy rainfall. William Boos at the University of California, Berkeley, wondered how much of a role the Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range in western Mexico might play in the North American monsoon, because mountains can deflect the path of winds. The North American monsoon hits Mexico and the south-western US every summer, bringing rain and thunderstorms between July and September. To investigate, Boos and his colleagues ran global simulations of the atmosphere under two scenarios: one with normal geographical conditions and one with the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains flattened to 0 kilometres above sea level. The team also modelled the impact of mountain ranges on winds.
See more from New Scientist HERE:
"Study links increasing air pollution to the rise of a type of lung cancer"
An international team of scientists, led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), has linked increased air pollution to an uptick in cases of lung adenocarcinoma (LADC) worldwide. The same study also concluded an overall lower consumption of tobacco worldwide is statistically linked to less people contracting lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). Lung adenocarcinoma is a type of cancer for which research strongly suggests that genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors play a part, while lung squamous cell carcinoma is often linked to a history of smoking.
"NEW FORMULAS DESCRIBE BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENCE"
"Mathematicians have been trying to understand the turbulence that arises when a flow interacts with a boundary, but a formulation has proven elusive. A team of mathematicians, led by University of California, Santa Barbara professor Björn Birnir and University of Oslo professor Luiza Angheluta, has published a complete description of boundary layer turbulence. The paper appears in Physical Review Research, and synthesizes decades of work on the topic. The theory unites empirical observations with the Navier-Stokes equation—the mathematical foundation of fluid dynamics—into a mathematical formula. This phenomenon was first described around 1920 by Hungarian physicist Theodore von Kármán and German physicist Ludwig Prandtl, two luminaries in fluid dynamics. "They were honing in on what's called boundary layer turbulence," says Birnir, director of the Center for Complex and Nonlinear Science. This is turbulence caused when a flow interacts with a boundary, such as the fluid's surface, a pipe wall, the surface of the Earth, and so forth."
