Barkhad Abdi
"Captain Phillips"
Role: Muse, a Somali fisherman turned pirate, who hijacks a merchant ship and holds the crew for ransom.
In his favor: A character at once menacing, naive, sympathetic and tragic. Holds his own against Tom Hanks. Cinderella story debut for an unknown.
Then again: Jared Leto has the kind of transformative role that voters gush over.
Daniel BrÜhl
"Rush"
Role: Real-life racer Niki Lauda, a shrewd survivor of the 1970s Grand Prix circuit.
In his favor: A surprising character arc, beginning as the apparent hero's antagonist, then overshadowing him.
Then again: The film has been a spinout in early awards-season competitions.
Bradley cooper
"American Hustle"
Role: FBI man Richie DiMaso, a lightweight aching to be taken seriously by his superiors, his mom and women generally.
In his favor: His impulsive comic energy and sheepish romanticism perfectly match the manic tone.