Oscar tip sheet: Best actor

Role: Woody Grant, a taciturn retiree who's adamant about traveling 1,200 miles to collect a $1 million prize he thinks he's won.

In his favor: His work is sharply observed and utterly true-to-life. Honoring a distinguished trouper like Dern would make voters feel good.

Then again: If voters wanted to salute a star in his golden years, why didn't they nominate Robert Redford, who carries "All Is Lost" single-handedly?

Role: Real-life scoundrel Jordan Belfort, a crooked, swaggering stock tycoon who has a hell of a bacchanal before getting busted.

In his favor: DiCaprio's machine-gun energy turns the cunning but dimwitted playboy into a wicked hoot, a naughty boy doing very, very naughty things.

Then again: He swears, screws, ruins furniture/sports cars/a yacht, and plenty of lives. Some might not find that appealing.

Role: Real-life musician Solomon Northup, a man sold into slavery who struggled to maintain his human dignity.

Then again: It takes a brave spirit to watch the gut-churning punishment Northup endures. How many viewers will make it past the hanging-on-tiptoe scene?

Role: Real-life cargo ship skipper Richard Phillips, whose vessel was taken by Somali hijackers in 2009.

In his favor: Hanks submerges himself into the character. His climactic scene in a military infirmary is overpowering, more sorcery than acting.

Then again: His ill-advised New England accent gums up his dialogue like wicked bad chowdah.

Role: Real-life AIDS treatment pioneer Ron Woodroof, who smuggled unapproved drugs to people with the disease.

Then again: There's a lot of competition this year, and he got no love from the BAFTA voters.

Role: Irving Rosenfeld, a small businessman/con artist whose big dreams involve him in an FBI sting.

In his favor: He lent sympathy and heart to an otherwise unsavory character. Plus, he left vanity aside, gaining 40 flabby pounds. And look at that epic combover!

Then again: Gaining weight is easier than losing it (see: Matthew McConaughey).