Will win:
Laura Dern
"Marriage Story"
Role: Cutthroat divorce lawyer Nora Fanshaw.
In her favor: Her acid commentary is a welcome chaser to the mopey self-absorption of the two principals. She adroitly seesaws between confidential girlfriend and hard-as-nails advocate. You'd want her in your corner. (Globes winner/S/B)
Then again: Seemingly channeling her brittle Renata from "Big Little Lies," she can be abrasively one-note.
Should win:
Florence Pugh
"Little Women"
Role: Amy March, the spoiled and willful youngest member of the family.
In her favor: Pugh accomplishes something miraculous here: She makes Amy likable and, crucially, understandable (hey, Laurie — we get it). Her bright impertinence is the vinegar that cuts the treacle. (B)
Then again: She had a breakout year (see "Midsommar"), but might the Academy figure this is an actress who'll have plenty of future chances?