Oscar predictions: Who will win, who should win for Best Actor?

"Joker"

Role: Arthur Fleck, clown/would-be stand-up comic.

In his favor: Phoenix is mesmerizing as the tormented Gotham City villain in his formative years. It's a ferociously demented performance, all skin and bones and convulsive tics and maniacal laughter. He's controlled yet out of control, a truly frightening dichotomy. (Globes winner/S/B)

Then again: Bad-boy Phoenix has never been one to charm the voters.

"Pain and Glory"

Role: Faded author/playwright Salvador Mallo, a man beset by physical and emotional ailments.

In his favor: So many multitudes are contained in Banderas' sad eyes; you feel every midlife ache and pain and yearning. Reuniting with Pedro Almodóvar brought out the best in Banderas, and brought him the best actor award at Cannes. (G)

"Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood"

Role: Rick Dalton, washed-up action star whose neighbors include Roman Polanski and Sharon Tate.

In his favor: Tightly coiled, paranoid and self-loathing, he shines in the long takes that add nothing to the plot but delight us nonetheless. He's never been more disarming than when he's schooled by a 10-year-old co-star. (G/S/B)

Then again: He's in the shadow of Brad Pitt.

"Marriage Story"

In his favor: Driver is the Golden Boy incarnate, a man whose orderly and rose-colored world takes a turn for the confounding. From maddeningly obtuse to downright pitiable, he somehow keeps you rooting for him. (G/S/B)

Then again: But can we really root for the guy who has everything — including a MacArthur genius grant?

Jonathan Pryce

"The Two Popes"

Role: Jorge Bergoglio, the future Pope Francis.

Then again: The buddy-picture vibe undercuts the subject.

"Rocketman"

Role: Reg Dwight/Elton John in the heady early days.

Why he deserved a nod: He's got the showmanship down, with or without those silly glasses and sparkly get-ups. If Rami Malek won last year for a lip-syncing Freddie Mercury, Egerton, whose voice is a credible facsimile of Elton's, should have been a shoo-in. (Globes winner/B)