No Section

Oscar 2021 predictions: Who will win for Best Supporting Actor?

Plus our take on the rest of the nominees.

By Chris Hewitt

April 22, 2021 at 2:30PM

Daniel Kaluuya in a scene from “Judas and the Black Messiah.” (Warner Bros. Pictures/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Will win/should win:

Daniel Kaluuya

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Role: Fred Hampton, the Black Panther leader killed by the FBI in 1969.

In his favor: This is really a lead performance (he's the "Black Messiah"), and Mahershala Ali and Christian Bale have shown that's a great path to victory. Also: He's magnetic in a very different role from "Get Out," which earned him his first nomination.

Then again: He looks really strong but he's bound to have other chances.

The rest:

Sacha Baron Cohen

"The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Role: Abbie Hoffman, the most theatrical defendant in the 1969 trial.

In his favor: Voters would love to honor Cohen for an incredible 2020. He stood out in this ensemble while also co-writing and starring in the "Borat" sequel.

Then again: "Borat," which played a small role in the presidential election, might be the work that sticks out more to Oscar (he was nominated for co-writing both "Borat" films).

Leslie Odom Jr.

"One Night in Miami"

Role: Sam Cooke, the legendary singer.

In his favor: The movie demonstrates Odom's versatility, since he does his own singing. It's part of a busy year that also saw him impress in the taped version of "Hamilton" and the shot-in-the-pandemic series "Love in the Time of Corona."

Then again: The body of work stands out, but in this four-man movie, the performance doesn't.

Paul Raci

"Sound of Metal"

Role: Joe, who tells lead character Ruben, "Deafness is not something to fix."

In his favor: An "overnight" success who's been acting for 40 years, Raci finesses a tricky part that requires him to perform in both American Sign Language and English (Raci's parents were deaf).

Then again: An unknown can win this usually veteran-dominated category, but it hasn't happened since Haing S. Ngor in 1984.

Lakeith Stanfield

"Judas and the Black Messiah"

Role: Bill O'Neal, FBI informer.

In his favor: He has built a reputation in a series of Oscar-noticed films, including "Knives Out" and "Get Out," and it's high time he snagged a nomination.

Then again: Will he and co-star Kaluuya cancel each other out? Kaluuya has won several preliminary awards and may have an edge because he's the good guy while Stanfield plays the heavy.

Missed the cut:

Chadwick Boseman

"Da 5 Bloods"

Role: Norman, one of a group of friends who hid a treasure while they served in Vietnam.

Why he had a chance: Boseman is obviously popular with the Academy. Spike Lee's streaming movie, one of the first to make a splash in the pandemic, has stuck with audiences.

Then again: His character is seen only in flashbacks so others in the powerhouse cast overshadow him.

Chadwick Boseman in “Da 5 Bloods.” Netflix (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”: Frank Langella as Judge Julius Hoffman, Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Richard Schultz, Sasha Baron Cohen as Abbey Hoffman. (Nico Tavernise • Netflix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Leslie Odom Jr. in a scene from “One Night in Miami.” (Patti Perret • Amazon Studios/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Daniel Kaluuya in a scene from “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Kaluuya accepted the award for best supporting actor in a motion picture at the Golden Globe Awards on Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021. (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP) (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Paul Rac in “The Sound of Metal” Amazon (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield star in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” a drama about Black Panther Party leader Fred Hampton. (Jay L. Clendenin/Los Angeles Times/TNS) (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

about the writer

Chris Hewitt

Critic / Editor

Interim books editor Chris Hewitt previously worked at the Pioneer Press in St. Paul, where he wrote about movies and theater.