Oscar 2021 predictions: What will win for Best Picture?

Plus our take on the rest of the nominated pictures.

April 22, 2021 at 2:37PM
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Frances McDormand in “Nomadland.” (Searchlight Pictures/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Will win/should win:

Nomadland

The story: A woman (Frances McDormand) gets a bracing look at America when she hits the road in a van.

In its favor: McDormand was already beloved. Writer/director/editor Chloé Zhao's graceful handling of a tricky movie — it mixes actors with people playing themselves — made her a star.

Then again: There's a mild backlash in claims that Zhao is hiding a wealthy background (she says it's untrue) but that's about it.

The rest:

The Father

The story: An intimate trip into the mind of a man with dementia.

In its favor: Florian Zeller based the film on his play, which has racked up tons of awards, but he successfully rethought it in cinematic terms. And the aging Oscar membership probably thinks about memory loss on the regular.

Then again: It's a very small film, entirely set in one apartment, and viewers are more likely to talk about the performances than the movie.

Judas and the Black Messiah

The story: The FBI enlists an informant to bring down Black Panther Fred Hampton.

In its favor: Oscar voters have been inclined to support projects from major studios. Most of those were delayed, but "Judas," from Warner Bros., is the kind of serious-minded quality film Oscar has always loved, with exciting talents in front of and behind the camera.

Then again: It came out very late in the Oscar cycle. Has it worked its way to the top of voters' to-watch lists?

Mank

The story: A screenwriter battles inner demons while churning out pages of "Citizen Kane."

In its favor: Movies about the movies often triumph at the Oscars. This one, about possibly the greatest film ever made, comes with the pedigrees of David Fincher and Gary Oldman, as well as black-and-white cinematography that sets it apart.

Then again: Do we care?

Minari

The story: Writer/director Lee Isaac Chung based the family drama on his life on a small Arkansas farm.

In its favor: It's tender and impossible not to love. There's something pleasingly old-fashioned about Chung's storytelling. The largely unknown cast is superb, including tiny Alan S. Kim as the Chung stand-in.

Then again: Microbudget movies made far outside the Hollywood system sometimes manage to get Oscar's attention but rarely win.

Promising Young Woman

The story: Troubled by events from her past, a woman seeks revenge against men who abuse women.

In its favor: The movie was in the works before #MeToo gathered steam, but its timing could not be better. It was amplified by a controversy over a review by a critic who, at best, did a bad job of describing Carey Mulligan's performance.

Then again: The darkly comic tone is risky and the ending divisive.

Sound of Metal

The story: Heavy metal drummer Ruben discovers he's going deaf.

In its favor: Along with "Chicago 7," it's the nominee that has been out the longest, so it's clear it has lingered in the minds of voters. Scoring two acting nominations — as many as any of the best picture contenders — shows it has broad support.

In its favor: As voters catch up with it, some are bound to be put off by the (deliberately) abrasive sound and lead character.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The story: Courtroom drama in which seven men are tried for inciting riots at the 1968 Democratic National Convention.

In its favor: Aaron Sorkin's fast-paced dialogue is showy (performers love it!) and he has written great parts for an ensemble of fine character actors.

Then again: Sorkin's fast-paced dialogue is showy (do people really talk like that?) and quite a lot of what happens on screen did not happen in real life.

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In this image released by Netflix, Gary Oldman portrays Herman Mankiewicz in a scene from “Mank.” On Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021 the film was nominated for a Golden Globe for best motion picture drama. (Nikolai Loveikis/Netflix via AP) (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Steven Yeun (right) appears in “Minari” with Alan Kim by Lee Isaac Chung. (Courtesy of Sundance Institute/TNS) ORG XMIT: 9941847W (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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This image released by Focus Features shows Carey Mulligan in a scene from the film “Promising Young Woman.” On Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021 the film was nominated for a Golden Globe for best motion picture drama. (Focus Features via AP) (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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The Trial of the Chicago 7. Jeremy Strong as Jerry Rubin in The Trial of the Chicago 7. Cr. Niko Tavernise/NETFLIX © 2020 (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Riz Ahmed as Ruben in “Sound of Metal.” (Amazon Studios) ORG XMIT: 11126728W (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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“Judas and the Black Messiah” (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Anthony Hopkins in “The Father.” Sony Pictures Classics (Sony Pictures Classics/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Chris Hewitt

Critic / Editor

Interim books editor Chris Hewitt previously worked at the Pioneer Press in St. Paul, where he wrote about movies and theater.

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