One Of The Hotter Weeks of a Very Hot Summer

Expect low to mid 90s today with a few pop-up T-storms lurking later, mainly north/east of MSP. Slight relief Wednesday gives way to another stretch of 90s from Thursday into Saturday. Welcome to the Long Sweaty Summer of '22. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

July 19, 2022 at 2:30AM
Hot Monday (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar For The Week Ahead

Here's the weather outlook through the weekend shows chances of showers and storms on Tuesday, mainly across northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. We'll quiet down a bit through the rest of the week with isolated storm chances returning this weekend.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

Here's the extended precipitation Outlook through the weekend ahead, which shows heavy rains possible across the international border. The rest of the region looks like they could see spotty rain chances over the next several days, but it won't be too heavy.

Extended Precipitation Outlook Through Monday (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows temps running well above average for Mid July with readings warming into the 80s and 90s statewide. It'll be a little cooler in the Arrowhead as a cooler, but much of the state will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation So Far This July

Here's how much rain has fallen across the region so far this July. Note that the Twin Cities has seen 0.88", which is tied for the 35th driest starts to any July on record. Duluth has seen more than 2.00" and several locations across southern Minnesota have seen more than 1" to 2" of rain so far this month.

th

Precipitation This July (Praedicitx/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Rain From Average This July (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Thanks to mostly dry weather over the last few weeks, parts of Central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, are now under moderate drought conditions.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming into the upper 90s. There might be a few isolated storms during the first part of the day, but the rest of the day should be mostly dry.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temperatures starting in the upper 70s and warming into the upper 90s by the afternoon. There is a chance of thunderstorms during the early part of the day with a slight chance of showers late in the day. Winds will also be quite strong with SSW gusts approaching 30mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well above average temperatures in the Twin Cities metro over the next several days. Temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well above average temperatures over the next several days with minimal precipitation potential.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, temps will remain above average over the several days. It is likely that we'll see above average levels through the end of July with minimal precipitation chances.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US, including the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows hot and dry weather in place across much of the Central US and into the Northwest. Better rain chances will linger in the Southwest and the Mid-Atlantic states.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

One Of The Hotter Weeks of a Very Hot Summer
By Paul Douglas

Unlike a tornado, hurricane or flood, heat waves evolve in slow motion. It's not the daytime heat, but the accumulated impact of nighttime temperatures above 80F. If people can't get any relief at night, preexisting conditions +chronic heat can result in death. The elderly are most at risk, and consider this: heat claims more Americans than other natural disasters such as floods, lightning, tornadoes, and hurricanes.

The "Urban Heat Island" (roads, buildings, etc.) can amp up temperatures another 5F in and near downtowns. And summers are trending more humid, so the heat index is consistently higher east of the Rockies.

Expect low to mid 90s today with a few pop-up T-storms lurking later, mainly north/east of MSP. Slight relief Wednesday gives way to another stretch of 90s from Thursday into Saturday. Welcome to the Long Sweaty Summer of '22.

"Paul, when you said back to the90s I thought you were talking about mix tapes, landlines and Kodachrome." My bad. Weather lingo is often lost in translation.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Steamy, PM T-storm. Winds: SW 15-25. High: 93.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, mild & breezy. Winds: W 15-30. Low: 73.

WEDNESDAY: Windy, less humid. Late PM shower? Winds: NW 15-25. High: 89.

THURSDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 71. High: 90.

FRIDAY: Plenty of hot sunshine. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 70. High: 93.

SATURDAY: Humid with a few welcome T-storms. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 90.

SUNDAY: Sunnier and drier weekend day. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 88.

MONDAY: Muggy with a few T-storms late. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 90.

This Day in Weather History

July 19th

1987: The town of Floodwood lives up to its name with nearly 6 inches of rain in two days.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 19th

Average High: 84F (Record: 100F set in 1940 & 1977)

Average Low: 66F (Record: 46F set in 1873)

Record Rainfall: 1.75" set in 1957

Record Snowfall: None

Twin Cities Weather Almanac For July 19th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 19th

Sunrise: 5:45am

Sunset: 8:53pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 8 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minutes & 50 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 29 minutes

Moon Phase for July 19th at Midnight

0.3 Days Before Last Quarter

Moon Phase For July 19th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temperatures across much of the Central US. Readings will be nearly +5F to +15F above average for many with isolated showers and storms in a few locations. Highs in the Southern Plains will be in the triple digits with a number of records possible.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through Wednesday shows spotty showers and storms across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. There will also be isolated t-storms in the Southeast and the Southwest.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found along the International Border and into the Northern New England States. Areas of rain will continue in the Southeast and the Southwest.

5 Day Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"HEAT WAVES HAVE DAMAGING MENTAL-HEALTH SIDE EFFECTS — HERE'S WHAT TO KNOW"

"HEAT WAVES HAVE a huge impact on our physical and mental health. Doctors usually dread them, as emergency rooms quickly fill up with patients suffering from dehydration, delirium, and fainting. Recent studies suggest at least a 10 percent rise in hospital emergency room visits on days when temperatures reach or exceed the top 5 percent of the normal temperature range for a given location. Soaring temperatures can also make symptoms worse in those with mental health conditions. Heat waves — as well as other weather events such as floods and fires — have been linked to a rise in depressive symptoms in people with depression and a rise in anxiety symptoms in those with a generalized anxiety disorder — a condition where people feel anxious most of the time."

"The Survival Of Indigenous Languages In The Face Of Climate Change"

"How does climate change impact Indigenous and minority languages? Many Indigenous and traditional languages across the world are deeply rooted in and connected to the environment. Passed down from one generation to the next, often orally, this knowledge enables different ways of connecting to the land and nature. But as climate change intensifies, and ecosystems change as a result, Indigenous languages suffer losses. There are many reasons why Indigenous languages are threatened, from globalization to unfavorable government policies and education systems. Persecuted and colonized groups are often pressured to abandon their languages, and climate change acts as a multiplier of this loss."

"A case for retreat in the age of fire"

"Wildfires are getting larger, more frequent and more severe in many areas. Although efforts are underway to create fire-adapted communities, it's important to realize that we cannot simply design our way out of wildfire – some communities will need to begin planning a retreat. Paradise, California, is an example. For decades, this community has worked to reduce dry grasses, brush and forest overgrowth in the surrounding wildlands that could burn. It built firebreaks to prevent fires from spreading, and promoted defensible space around homes. But in 2018, these efforts were not enough. The Camp Fire started from wind-damaged power lines, swept up the ravine and destroyed over 18,800 structures. Eighty-five people died."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

See Moreicon