Record Highs Set Tuesday
60s and 70s covered much of the state on Tuesday, leading to several record highs across the region. Brainerd, Duluth, and Baudette set record highs on Tuesday.
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Wednesday Record Highs
Meanwhile, we saw even more record highs across the region on Wednesday. NWS Twin Cities tweeted out that all three of their climate sites (MSP Airport, St. Cloud, and Eau Claire) had set record highs.
On the left is when the record high of 76F as MSP was set - early on in the 3 PM hour. Meanwhile, the right chart shows the warmest November highs in Twin Cities history. That 76F would go down as the third warmest November day in the records.
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Increasing Clouds Thursday Ahead Of Some Rain Thursday Night
A cold front moving in on Thursday will start to bring an end to the November warmth party across the region. We will see gradually increasing clouds as we head through the day, but highs are still expected to reach the low 70s in the metro. I'm not going to say with certainty that this is the last 70F-degree day of the year - while the American model would hint that this is the last hurrah, the European model tries to put a day at least near 70F toward the middle of next week.
You can see those clouds quickly increase as we head through the morning hours, with mostly cloudy skies expected heading into the afternoon.
You can see the cold front start slicing across the state on Thursday, with highs ranging from the 50s behind it in the northwestern portion of the state (in these areas, expect falling temperatures in the afternoon) to the low 70s in southern Minnesota. A few showers will be possible, mainly afternoon onward, across portions of western and northern Minnesota. More on that rain below.
Strong winds will continue on Thursday, particularly in southern Minnesota. In the Twin Cities, those winds will be out of the south gusting up to 25 mph in the midday and afternoon hours.
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Rainy System Later Thursday Into Saturday
American higher-res forecast loop from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
As that cold front continues to move through the state later in the day Thursday, we will see rain chances increase across the region (particularly in southern and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin) into the evening and overnight hours. A few snow showers - mainly northwest of the metro - could mix in Thursday night. While a few showers may still be around on Friday - both early and late in the day - most of the day looks to be dry at the moment.
European model forecast loop from 7 PM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.
As the area of low pressure associated with this cold front slowly moves north from the Central Plains Friday across Wisconsin on Saturday, we will see a second batch of precipitation move into the region (accounting for that late-day Friday rain chance in the metro, which will continue into Saturday). There is still uncertainty about far west the overall precipitation reaches during this second round of rain - the American GFS has precipitation farther west than the European model shown above - but either way, the heaviest precipitation does appear to be south and east of the metro at the moment.
The heaviest rain with this system currently looks to fall south and east of the metro into southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where 1-3" of rain could fall. In the metro, it currently looks more like half an inch to three-quarters of an inch of rain - which would still be close to, if not more than, we received at MSP during the months of September and October in total.
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Cooling Temperatures Into The Weekend
So again, rain chances will continue in the metro as we head through the first half of the weekend. Behind that frontal boundary, and with clouds/rain in the forecast, highs will only be in the 40s for Friday and Saturday. Sunnier skies are expected for Sunday with highs in the low to mid-50s.
For the deer hunters across the state, temperatures will start off in the 20s and 30s with highs generally in the 40s as we watch some of those precipitation chances in eastern and southern Minnesota. Sunnier skies are possible in western Minnesota with highs nearing 50F.
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Another System Toward The Middle Of Next Week
While we will begin next week dry, as we head toward Election Day and the middle of the week we will watch another area of low-pressure move across the region, bringing some rain chances along with it. It'll be that system that could bring a quick day or two of warmer weather as well.
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October: Another Warm, Dry Month In The Twin Cities
Another warm, dry month has gone down in the books in the Twin Cities as we said goodbye to October on Monday. The tenth month of the year was the 37th warmest October on record with an average temperature of 51.8F. Meanwhile, it was the 6th driest with only 0.24" of precipitation. We did see 0.4" of snow, but even that was below average as well.
Meanwhile, all climate reporting sites across the state were at least an inch below average, with many over two inches. This included Rochester, which finished the month with 0.70" of precipitation (-1.73" from average). Click here for more on the dry October we saw from the Minnesota Climatology Office.
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Extremely Dry Fall So Far
On top of the dry October, September was the driest on record (0.24" also fell during that month), which means we've seen less than half an inch of precipitation over the past two months in the metro. That's over 5" below average and (only) the second driest September 1 - November 2 on record. The entire state is running at least 2" to 5" below average for meteorological fall so far. No other way to put this: we need rain. An update in the Drought Monitor will be released Thursday. Just like last week, I don't expect to see any improvement in the week-to-week numbers.
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Early Take: Mild, Showery Election Day
By Paul Douglas
Remember one thing: pollsters make meteorologists look good. Polls are vaguely interesting, just like market predictions and sports spreads. But like the weather, not every variable can be accounted for and predicted accurately. As always, your results may vary.
Caveats aside the outlook for Election Day next Tuesday is "showers, possible thunder" with highs topping 60F across much of Minnesota. No weather excuses not to get out and vote.
Winter has been delayed, but I have it on good authority that slush and wind chill are inevitable. Wave 1 of our pending reality check arrives with showers and even a few T-storms tonight. After teasing us earlier in the week, latest weather models print out a quarter inch for most thirsty lawns and fields.
A storm spinning up along the front may douse Wisconsin with 2-4" rain this weekend, but the axis of heaviest rainfall will probably set up south/east of MSP.
It's surreal seeing 70s into mid-November. A week from Friday we may struggle to reach freezing. Hang on.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
THURSDAY: Fading sun, T-showers late. Wake up 60. High 71. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 15-25 mph.
FRIDAY: Early shower, then chilly and drier. Wake up 42. High 45. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Clouds, heavy rain stays east of MSP. Wake up 38. High 50. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Some sun, few showers up north. Wake up 42. High 55. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake up 37. High 50. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Election Day showers, thunder? Wake 50. High 62. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Still mild, late T-storm. Wake up 59. High 69. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 15-30 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 3rd
*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 3 minutes, and 56 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 44 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Daylight?: November 5th (9 hours, 58 minutes, 32 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before The Time Change: November 5th (7:57 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before The Time Change: November 5th (5:55 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
November 3rd
1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities.
1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit.
1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN.
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National Weather Forecast
On Thursday, a system stretching from the Upper Midwest back to the Rockies will produce rain and snow chances. A few strong storms are expected in the Central Plains. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will produce rain and higher-elevation snow in the Pacific Northwest.
As we head through the end of the week, up to a couple of feet of snow will be possible in portions of the western mountains. Heavy rain will fall in the Pacific Northwest (maybe over 3"), with 1-2"+ expected in the central United States.
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Xcel accelerates exit from coal
More from Grist: "Xcel Energy announced on Monday that it will close its last coal plant four years ahead of schedule and replace it with renewable energy — a move that will allow the Minneapolis-based utility to finish its transition away from coal by the end of this decade. Xcel's 1,067-megawatt Tolk Generating Station near Lubbock, Texas — which produces enough energy to power more than half a million homes — is set to be decommissioned in 2028 and replaced with a "diverse mix" of alternative energy sources including wind and solar. The investor-owned utility is now aiming to stop burning coal completely by the end of 2030, when it plans to retire its last coal-fired power plant in Colorado."
Waterlogged wheat, rotting oranges: five crops devastated by a year of extreme weather
More from The Guardian: "From Hurricanes Fiona and Ian, to flooding in eastern Kentucky and a record dry summer as the western US entered its 22nd year of a once-in-a-millennium megadrought, the US has already seen more than two dozen major climate disasters with losses exceeding $1bn (£864m). On top of this economic toll, extreme weather is also upending the food system in the US and much of the world. As the climate crisis causes temperatures to rise, precipitation patterns to shift and drought conditions to lengthen, many crops are struggling to grow – and produce the same yields – as they would under normal weather conditions. In some parts of the country, crops that require dry conditions are getting too much rain, while in others, they're not getting enough."
Despite rhetoric, GOP-led states start to embrace EVs
More from E&E News: "Republican-led states are pushing ahead with electric vehicle manufacturing and infrastructure, even as their GOP governors and congressional representatives often have resisted the transition to zero-emission vehicles. Federal funding is one reason. Economics is playing a big role, too. Last year's bipartisan infrastructure law included $7.5 billion for a coast-to-coast network of EV chargers and $7 billion to support the U.S. battery supply chain. One major beneficiary of the funding is the so-called battery belt — a swath of Republican-led states in the South and Midwest that has attracted the attention of EV industry manufacturers. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation lists Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina and Indiana as the country's "new EV production" states in a recent research summary highlighting new investments in electric vehicles. Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee are home to the greatest number of announced battery plants, according to the trade association."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
