Nothing Better Than Weather Trash-Talking

Showers and T-storms squeeze out half an inch of rain in the metro today with some 1-inch amounts over central Minnesota. Let it rain. No more 90s. 70s and low 80s will feel refreshing this week. Friday showers give way to a weekend of slow clearing. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

July 6, 2021 at 2:30AM
Lutsen Mountain (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Elsa

As of 5PM EDT, Elsa was a Tropical Storm with 50mph sustained winds located near Cuba and was headed NW at 14mph. Elsa became the 5th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane on July 1st, which was the earlier on record beating the previous record set last year (2020) by Eduord on July 9th.

Tracking Elsa (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Key Messages About Elsa From NOAA's NHC

Key Messages About Elsa From NOAA’s NHC (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Elsa

Elsa is expected to make landfall sometime on Wednesday along Florida's West Coast. Areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected as Elsa slides along the coast. Areas of heavy rain will continue through the Mid-Atlantic States through the end of week.

Tracking Elsa (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tropical Alerts

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River.

Tropical Alerts (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Heavy Rains From Elsa

Rainfall from Elsa is expected to be quite heavy across much of Florida and especially along the West Coast, where some 6" to 10" tallies can't be ruled out. Amounts should lessen through the Mid-Atlantic States, but amounts still could approach 2" to 4" in some areas.

Heavy Rains From Elsa (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat Tuesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms in dark green across parts of southern Minnesota on Tuesday, which includes the Twin Cities. Some of the storms that develop PM Tuesday could produce gusty winds and hail.

Severe Threat Tuesday (NOAA Storm Prediction Center/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar Tuesday

Here's the simulated radar from 7AM Tuesday to 7AM Wednesday. Widespread showers and storms are expected to push through the state much of the day. When all is said and done, some locations could see more than 1" of rain, which will be much needed for lawns and gardens.

Simulated Radar From 7AM Tuesday to 7AM Wednesday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

The rainfall potential through Wednesday shows fairly widespread rainfall with some locations getting up to near 1" or more, including parts of the Twin Cities. Keep in mind that many locations are dealing with big precipitation deficits so far this summer and since the beginning of the year.

Precipitation Potential Through 7AM Wednesday (WeatherBell & NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tuesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday shows cooler temps in place along with a chance of showers and storms. There is a chance of storms in the mid to late morning hours with another round of more widespread showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms during the 2nd half of the day could be a little on the vigorous side, especially across the southern part of the state.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minneapolis Meteograms

The meteograms for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps warming into the low 80s by midday with scattered showers and storms possible through the day. There could be areas of locally heavy rainfall in spots.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Regional Weather Outlook for Tuesday

The weather outlook across the region on Tuesday looks a bit unsettled with showers and storms moving through the area. Temps will be running nearly -5F to -15F below average across the central and northern part of the state.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming to below average levels for several days through the rest of the week. Temps haven't been this cool for several weeks now. Chances of showers and storms will be with us on Tuesday and again on Friday.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Through PM Wednesday

Here's the extended weather outlook from AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday, which shows widespread showers and storms moving through the Upper Midwest. Some of the rain tallies through midweek could approach 1" or more with isolated strong to severe storms possible.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Wednesday

Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Wednesday across the Midwest, which shows pockets of heavier tallies from the Dakotas through Minnesota and into Wisconsin.

Precipitation Outlook Through PM Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, areas in the Southern Plains will be running cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA Climate Prediction Center/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Nothing Better Than Weather Trash-Talking
By Paul Douglas

Every January friends in Florida playfully troll me with fake concern about our weather. "Paul, are you OK? I hear Minnesota is subzero. Tots and pears!" So it is only fitting that I return the favor during hurricane season. "It's in the 80s and 90s up here and a storm is coming. But get this, our storms don't have names!" Those same friends in Naples and Vero Beach ghost me from June through October. They ignore my hurricane updates.

There is no risk-free place to live. Storms are a constant but areas near sea level are often riskier than others.

"Elsa" strafes the Gulf coast of Florida today with flooding rains, 55 mph gusts and a 2-4 foot storm surge at Tampa Bay. And yes, it's early to be tracking tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.

Showers and T-storms squeeze out half an inch of rain in the metro today with some 1-inch amounts over central Minnesota. Let it rain.

No more 90s. 70s and low 80s will feel refreshing this week. Friday showers give way to a weekend of slow clearing. And not one hurricane.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Showers, few T-storms. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 77.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and storms. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: 58.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy and cooler with comfortable sun. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 72.

THURSDAY: Lukewarm sun, few storms at night. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 74.

FRIDAY: Unsettled, few showers and T-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High: 75.

SATURDAY: Rain far south. Slow clearing, breezy. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 62 High: 78.

SUNDAY: Sunnier, milder day of the weekend. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 61. High: 82.

MONDAY: Irritable sky, few T-storms possible. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 81.

This Day in Weather History

July 6th

1936: A high of 104 degrees is recorded at Minneapolis.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 6th

Average High: 84F (Record: 104F set in 1936)

Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1942)

Record Rainfall: 2.83" set in 2015

Record Snowfall: 0.00"

Twin Cities Almanac For July 6th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 6th

Sunrise: 5:34am

Sunset: 9:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 28 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 4 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~1 Minute

Moon Phase for July 6th at Midnight

2.8 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase for July 6th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

What's in the Night Sky?

In the morning before sunup July 5 to 8, 2021, watch for the waning crescent moon and Mercury, plus red Aldebaran and the Pleiades cluster, in Taurus the Bull.

Night Sky For July 6th (Earth Sky/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows cooler temps across the Central US with temps running nearly -5F to -10F below average in spots. Meanwhile, folks in the Northeast and Northwest will be running above average by nearly +5F to +10F

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through PM Thursday shows widespread showers and storms across the Central US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. We're also watching Elsa, which will bring areas of heavy rain and gusty winds to the Southeast during the 2nd half of the week.

Weather outlook Through 7PM Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast through the week ahead. Meanwhile, heavy rain will be possible in the Southeast from Elsa. There also appears to be heavier rains in southern Texas, but very little rainfall will be found in the Western US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Earth's cryosphere loses enough ice to cover Lake Superior every year"

Earth is losing ice at a rapid rate, with a frozen area the size of Lake Superior melting every year. It's no surprise that the planet is melting, of course. Researchers have been documenting losses in the polar ice sheets, in glaciers and in seasonal snow cover for years. They've also found that ice on rivers and lakes is melting earlier in the spring as temperatures warm, driven by climate change. But a new study out May 16 in the open-access journal Earth's Future is the first to put all the frozen bits of Earth together and measure their melting in one fell swoop. The collective ice on the planet is known as the cryosphere. Led by Xiaoqing Peng, a geographer at Lanzhou University in China, the new study finds that the planet has lost about 33,000 square miles (87,000 square kilometers) of ice cover each year since 1979.

"Welcome to our hellscape summer"

"Deadly heat waves. An epic drought. More than a million acres in the West gone up in smoke before the end of June. And the earliest fifth-named Atlantic tropical storm on record. Welcome to the summer of 2021, when scientists' steady drumbeat of climate change warnings have reached an all-too-real crescendo. Why it matters: The calamities playing out across the country may have repercussions in Washington as lawmakers debate potentially huge investments for the country's aging infrastructure. Depending on its provisions, the eventual legislation could make or break America's ability to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near term, thereby affecting how disastrous future extreme weather events become. The big picture: The deadly heat waves, which are ongoing in portions of the Northwest and Canada, constitute a public health crisis. This is partly because they're hitting a region where air conditioning is uncommon."

"'A scourge of the Earth': grasshopper swarms overwhelm US west"

"They're arriving in swarms so dense it can appear the earth is moving. They're covering roads and fields, pelting ATV riders, and steadily devouring grains and grass to the bedevilment of farmers and ranchers. A massive population of grasshoppers is proliferating in the sweltering American west, where a deep drought has made for ideal conditions for grasshopper eggs to hatch and survive into adulthood. "I can only describe grasshoppers in expletives," said Richard Nicholson, a cattle rancher in Fort Klamath, a small community in southern Oregon, who once recalled seeing grasshopper bands eat 1,000 acres a day and cover the ground like snow. The insects cause innumerable headaches for farmers and ranchers, competing with cattle for tough-to-find wild forage and costing tens of thousands of dollars in lost crops and associated costs. "They are a scourge of the Earth … They just destroy the land, destroy the crops. They are just a bad, bad predator."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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