Strong Storms Thursday Night
As we head through Thursday evening into the overnight hours, storms are expected to pop across the state, quickly going somewhat linear from north-central to southeast Minnesota. Some of these storms will be strong, with storms starting to lose their strength as we head into the overnight hours and lose the heating of the day. The forecast loop above goes from 6 PM Thursday through 6 AM Friday.
A Slight Risk is in place across a chunk of Minnesota Thursday Night. The primary threats from the storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but a few tornadoes can't be ruled out if storms can stay supercelluar vs. going linear.
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Friday Weather Outlook
While we could still see a few storms lingering in the metro during the morning hours, most of the day will be bright and sunny. Morning temperatures start off in the low 60s, only climbing to the low 70s for highs.
The storms that move through Thursday Night will still linger through the morning hours Friday across southern and eastern Minnesota. Otherwise, once that clear outs, most of the state will see mainly sunny skies throughout the day. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s, within a few degrees of average.
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Working Toward The Weekend
We should continue to see fairly sunny skies as we head into the weekend, with just some passing clouds from time to time. The big story will be a rapid warmup for the second half of the weekend - going from the mid-70s on Saturday to upper 80s on Sunday. The humidity will also be on the increase, and winds on Sunday out of the south could gust up to 30 mph. We stay warm, humid, and breezy on Monday but rain chances will start to work in late in the day and particuarly overnight.
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Drought Update
The latest Drought Monitor was released on Thursday, and there wasn't much change across the state - just some slight improvement in the Severe and Extreme Drought categories.
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Fall Color Update
Versus Wednesday, a few more areas of the state are now seeing 25-50% color, including at Savanna Portage State Park and Flandrau State Park. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.
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Not Much Change In The Drought - AM Showers Today
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
There wasn't much change in the Drought Monitor released on Thursday, with only slight decreases in the Severe and Extreme categories (the second and third worst categories) across western and northeastern Minnesota. 85.6% of the state remains under some sort of drought category, with 94.7% of Minnesota at least abnormally dry. Through Wednesday we were over 3.50" below average precip-wise since June 1st at MSP airport, and for the entire year we're 3.85" below average.
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger across southern Minnesota through the morning hours today before we see quiet weather this weekend. Just because it'll be quiet doesn't mean it won't be eventful, however! Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s but soar into the upper 80s for Sunday with breezy and humid conditions. Sunday's record high at MSP is 94F back in 1895.
Enjoy the warmth, as models show a cool down mid-week onward next week with seasonable highs primarily in the 60s and 70s to close out the month.
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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast
FRIDAY: AM storms. PM sun. Wake up 62. High 70. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: A few passing clouds. Wake up 51. High 75. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Mainly sunny. Warm and breezy. Wake up 65. High 87. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 15-25 mph.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Overnight storms. Wake up 70. High 85. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Scattered showers, especially north. Wake up 63. High 74. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Autumnal Equinox. Mix of sun & clouds. Wake up 51. High 66. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Dry and mostly sunny. Wake up 50. High 69. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 17th
*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 24 minutes, and 53 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 5 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 12 Hours Of Daylight? September 26th (11 hours, 56 minutes, and 56 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 7:00 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
September 17th
1955: A late-season tornado hits Koochiching County. Most damage is confined to trees.
1911: Pipestone is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measures hail three inches deep. People get their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground.
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National Weather Forecast
Whatever is left of Nicholas will continue to produce some heavy rain across the central Gulf Coast and bring in additional tropical moisture to the region. Scattered showers and storms are possible stretching into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A cold front in the central U.S. will produce storms. Meanwhile a system moving into the Pacific Northwest will cause showers and maybe some higher elevation mixed precipitation.
There will be two areas of heavy rain across the nation through the first half of the weekend. The first is down along the central Gulf Coast, where continued tropical moisture (some from Nicholas) will produce an additional 1-5" of rain from Thursday through Saturday leading to potential flash flooding. The second is in the Pacific Northwest where the first good rain in a while will occur. Some areas at higher elevations will receive over 3" of rain - and yes, rain, not snow.
Here's a closer look at the Northwest. Seattle and Portland are expected to get at least a third to two-thirds of an inch of rain Friday into Saturday. Between June 15th and September 15th only 0.13" of rain had fallen in Seattle with 0.08" in Portland, with both cities seeing their driest 6/15-9/15 on record.
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Unusual Snowfall in Greenland
More from NASA Earth Observatory: "Hurricanes are known for their destructive wind, rain, and storm surge. Hurricane Larry delivered more than that. On September 12, 2021, the storm's remnants dropped abundant snowfall on Greenland just as the summer melt season was coming to an end. Snowfall amounts on that day are visible in the map above, as represented by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. Snowfall amounts are shown as millimeters of water, as opposed to snow depth, for the 24-hour period. Fifty millimeters of water is equivalent to about 200 millimeters (8 inches) of snow, assuming the snow has a density of 250 kilograms per cubic meter. Like other weather and climate models, GEOS uses mathematical equations that represent physical processes (like precipitation and cloud processes) to calculate what the atmosphere will do. Actual measurements of physical properties, like temperature, moisture, and winds, are routinely folded into the model to keep the simulation as close to measured reality as possible."
Can Germany – Europe's biggest carbon polluter – clean up its act?
More from Marketplace: "That climate change has figured prominently in the national election campaign now underway in Germany is hardly surprising. Devastating flash floods that killed almost 200 people there this summer have focused even more attention on the issue in a country already reputed to be one of the most climate-conscious in the world. Around 50% of electricity in Germany comes from renewable energy sources, and the government in Berlin has signed up to some of the most ambitious decarbonization targets, including net-zero emissions by 2045 — five years earlier than most other developed economies."
Los Angeles County supervisors vote to end oil, gas drilling
More from The Hill: "Los Angeles County's board of supervisors on Wednesday voted 5-0 to end new oil and gas drilling and phase out existing drilling infrastructure, potentially closing nearly 2,000 sites. The unincorporated L.A. County area contains some 1,600 active and idle wells, according to the motion. Most of these are part of the Inglewood Oil Field, the biggest urban oilfield in the U.S. The motion specifically cites community health problems associated with proximity to oil drill sites. It points to a June study published in the journal Environmental Research, which found living near active or inactive oil wells in the county correlates with major reductions in both pulmonary and lung functions. Separately, it cites a 2018 report by the county Department of Public Health indicating these adverse effects can persist as far as 1,500 feet away."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
