Pitch-tracking data in baseball has had a profound effect on the sport and how we think about borderline pitches.
On a called strike three in a tight situation, it has changed the prevailing wisdom from "that pitch was too close to take," which gives the benefit of the doubt to both the umpire and the pitcher, to "that was close, but the tracker says it was a (ball or strike)."
The latter puts a great deal of pressure and blame on umpires while definitely identifying a wronged party — either the batter who had a ball incorrectly called a strike, or a pitcher who had a strike incorrectly called a ball.
I suspect this evolution, plus the fact that balls and strikes are not reviewable plays, has added greatly to the tension between umpires and players (and fans watching those little strike zone boxes on their high-definition TVs).
It's one thing to think you were wronged. It's another to go back and see evidence-based data that confirms it.
A study out of Boston University looked at the past 11 MLB seasons — tracking nearly 4 million pitches — came away with some interesting conclusions. Isolating just on 2018, the study found that umpires missed 34,294 ball-strike calls — about 14 per game. Even the best umpires miss about 7% of ball-strike calls, while the worst are around 11%.
The missed calls are typically spread out through a game. Some have little impact; some have a lot. There are enough of them that you imagine they tend to even out over time in terms of who they benefit.
Where they get magnified is in the high-leverage moments — late in close ballgames. An obvious moment went in the Twins' favor Tuesday. What you might not know is that a more subtle one also helped fuel their three-run rally and 6-5 victory.
