Going old-school: This time, Matt LaFleur will get to enjoy a big home loss by Aaron Rodgers

Vegas doesn’t think Aaron Rodgers will channel his inner Brett Favre — à la the Metrodome vs. Rodgers 16 years ago — and win the first meeting against his former team when Jordan Love and the Packers (4-1-1) travel to Pittsburgh (4-2) as a three-point favorite for Sunday night’s game of the week.

Why?

Because the Steelers ain’t that good.

In fact, there isn’t a bigger Super Bowl pretender among the NFL’s eight division leaders than A-Rodg and Co. And, despite Rodgers’ on-field histrionics, it’s not always everyone else’s fault when things go wrong.

Pittsburgh leads Cincinnati (3-4) by 1½ games in the AFC North. Yet oddsmakers barely favor Pittsburgh to win the division over 1-5, last-place Baltimore now that Lamar Jackson is ready to return against the Bears this week.

Why all the trepidation?

The Steelers defense is ranked 31st. It missed 14 tackles while surrendering 6.2 yards per rush to Cincinnati’s 32nd-ranked run game. It gave up 343 yards passing to Joe Flacco.

Rodgers threw two first-half picks against the Bengals. He also has yet to reach 250 yards passing in a game this season.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love, Rodgers’ heir in Green Bay, doesn’t shrink on Sunday nights. He has 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 121.1 passer rating in four Sunday night games, including a 337-yard, three-touchdown game in tying the Cowboys 40-40 earlier this season.

Anything can and usually does happen. And no one is more resilient than Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. But Vegas is right. Aaron’s old team is better than his new team, home or away.

Can we please stop judging every team’s strength of schedule before the season even begins? The Bills (4-2) head to Carolina (4-3) coming off two losses and a bye. What appeared to be a layup back in August could be another trap door for the Bills. Yes, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is expected to miss the game with a high-ankle sprain. Yes, Andy Dalton is 1-5 as a Carolina backup.

But the Panthers are a better team overall. They are one of four teams — along with Chicago, New England and Indianapolis – that missed the playoffs a year ago but are now riding at least a three-game winning streak. A victory over Buffalo would give Carolina a fourth consecutive victory, fifth in a row at home and match last year’s victory total.

Want further perspective? The Vikings had a combined 16 rushing touchdowns during the entire 2023 and ’24 seasons.

The Colts’ offense is a rhythmic thing of beauty right now because it’s as dangerous running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last five games, as it is passing the ball with Daniel Jones, this year’s Sam Darnold but with better protection, having been sacked a league-low six times.

Those two are legit MVP candidates. If offensive linemen were ever considered, left guard Quenton Nelson would be a third MVP candidate. He’s Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked guard and on his way to a fourth first-team All-Pro selection and first since the Colts last made the playoffs in 2020.

The Chiefs, prematurely written off by many of the media’s knee-jerks, are 4-3 and have reclaimed their favored Super Bowl status despite holding the eighth seed in the AFC. Their magic is back, especially on fourth down, where they’re a league-leading 12 of 14 (85.7%) with Mahomes under center. They host the Commanders (3-4), who last year went 20 of 23 on fourth down and are 5 of 9 this season.

The Cowboys (3-3-1) head to Denver (5-2) having reached 37 points four times in six weeks. They also can’t be taken seriously because they have given up 22 or more points in all seven games. Denver is fourth in scoring defense (18.1), has won eight in a row at home, leads the NFL in sacks (34) and has two defenders — Nik Bonitto (eight) and Jonathan Cooper (six) — in the top four in sacks.

Quick, name the hottest team in the NFC. Answer: The no-longer-in-last-place Chicago Bears (4-2). They have won four in a row, matching the league-high streaks by the AFC’s Patriots (5-2) and Broncos. The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways (16) and have jump-started a running game that ranks eighth (129.3), but … They’re still underdogs at Baltimore (1-5). That was with the thought that Lamar Jackson would play, but on Saturday the Ravens announced their two-time MVP quarterback would miss his third game because of a hamstring injury. Tyler Huntley, who beat the Bears when these teams last met in 2021, will start for the Ravens again.

Vikings (+3½) at Chargers: Oh, great. Another Carson Wentz win. Now we’ll never get to see J.J. McCarthy lose to the Lions in 10 days. Vikings 28-24

Dolphins (+7) at Falcons: Atlanta is the next flop stop on Stephen M. Ross’ Tanking ’25 Tour. Falcons 31-10

Bears (+1½) at Ravens: This is Baltimore’s last chance to convince us that a bad Ravens team is really a good Ravens team with a bad record. Ravens 21-20

Bills (-7½) at Panthers: Nervous Bills Mafia avoids three-game losing streak. Barely. Bills 31-28

Giants (+7½) at Eagles: Fool me once (Week 6 Eagles at Giants), shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on me again. Eagles 30-27

Jets (+6½) at Bengals: Who’s worse than Justin Fields? The owner who knew he wasn’t good, agreed to give him $40 million and is now blaming him for not being good. Bengals 28-17

Buccaneers (-4½) at Saints: The Saints don’t have the firepower to hang with a fiery Baker a week after a Bucs beatdown. Buccaneers 34-17

Cowboys (+3½) at Broncos: Stay classless, Sean Payton. Broncos 34-28

Titans (+14½) at Colts: Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are sixth and seventh in the MVP race behind their LT, LG, C, RG, RT. Colts 38-17

Commanders (+11½) at Chiefs: For gosh sakes, put the shovels away. Chiefs 34-20

49ers (+2½) at Texans: What’s left of the 49ers roster shouldn’t keep winning. But it does. 49ers 16-13

Last week’s pick: Cardinals (+6½) 26, Packers 23. Final: Packers 27, Cardinals 23. Record: 2-4.

Last week/season straight up: 12-3/54-36.