Note to self: When your Upset Special is rolling along at 3-0, DO NOT take the Lions to upset ANYBODY. EVER! (See: Four red-zone blunders in last week's coulda-been-a-win loss to Chicago).
Note to self II: Don't panic when both of New Jersey's winless teams triumph in overtime on the same day for the first time ever. Stick with the plan and pick the Jets (+2½ at Atlanta) and Giants (+7 at Dallas) to resume losing by more than the point spread in Week 5.
Well, Week 4 was so NFL. Three of the five winless teams won. Four of the five undefeated teams lost. And Urban Meyer almost won, lost, aged another 10 years and probably wishes he had the ESPN gig back.
Mix it all together and this guesstimator came out 8-8 straight up and 7-9 against the spread last week.
The record for picking Vikings games did, however, improve to 3-1 when it was accurately predicted that new-schooler Kevin Stefanski would out-Zimmer Mike Zimmer with an old-schooler's love of power and pass rushing. Next up for the Vikings: A guaranteed, 100%, take-it-to-the-bank lock that the Vikings will blow out the Lions. (Probably?)
The Jaguars will upset the Titans at home, leaving the Lions as the only winless team, while the Cardinals will extend their stay as the only undefeated team for one more week.
As for the Upset Special, go Bears! And sorry about that Lions pick last week.
UPDATED ODDS: Spreads, money lines, over/under
Here's a look at this week's games:
Lions (+10) at Vikings: Vikings 31, Lions 7
At the risk of jinxing a Vikings brain trust that really, really, REALLY needs to win this game, this one's a lock. The Lions can't protect a statue of a quarterback and can't rush the passer, and they're playing in the chaotic noise of U.S. Bank Stadium.
Jets (+2½) at Falcons: Falcons by 6
Who's the big winner in this game? Not London. Go with the rare occasion when Matt Ryan scores more than his defense allows.
Saints (-2 ½) at Washington: Washington by 5
How are the Saints favored on the road after losing as an 8-point favorite to a winless Giants team? Figuring out the Saints isn't easy, but right now, lean toward not … very … good. Go with the home team.
Patriots (-9) at Texans: Patriots by 3
The Patriots aren't good enough to trust giving nine points, but they're plenty good enough to make Davis Mills look worse than Mac Jones.
Dolphins (+10) at Buccaneers: Buccaneers by 14
The Buccaneers are kind of sputtering along. Not great but good enough. The Dolphins are just a broken-down mess.
Packers (-3) at Bengals: Packers by 7
The Bengals are 3-1 and capable of staging an entertaining shootout with Aaron Rodgers. They're just not ready to finish on the winning side of a 42-35 game with Rodgers.
Broncos (+1 ) at Steelers: Steelers by 2
Entertaining shootout, this will not be. Pittsburgh's offense is lifeless. Denver's won't be much better. First one to 16 wins.
Eagles (+3 ) at Panthers: Panthers by 6
A 1-3 Eagles team at home is a good way for a 3-1 team to bounce back from getting run over in Dallas.
Titans (-4½) at Jaguars: Jaguars by 3
Eventually, Meyer is going to have one good day. Right? A win moves him to 1-4 and, believe it or not, one game out of first place in the AFC South.
49ers (+5) at Cardinals: Cardinals by 3
Eventually, the Cardinals are going to have one bad day. Right? Just not this week in the first start for Niners rookie quarterback Trey Lance of Marshall, Minn. The most explosive team in the NFC keeps rolling.
Giants (+7) at Cowboys: Cowboys by 10
Can Daniel Jones win a second consecutive road game while playing lights out like he did in torpedoing so many Survivor Pool picks at New Orleans? Nope.
Bills (+2½) at Chiefs: Bills by 3
Turnovers will tell the story in this one. After losing to Kansas City twice last year, Buffalo upsets Patrick Mahomes and wins this AFC Championship Game rematch with its newfound pass rush and more opportunistic play from the league leader in takeaways.
Browns (+2) at Chargers: Browns by 3
Stefanski has the power and pass rush to travel quite comfortably to any visiting venue. Just ask his former team.
Colts (+7) at Ravens: Ravens by 4
Baltimore with Lamar Jackson on Monday night is how the Colts will spend their third consecutive week on the road. Good luck with that.
UPSET SPECIAL
Bears (+5 ½) at Raiders: Bears 26, Raiders 23
So the guy who last week picked the Bears to lose to winless Detroit at home is now picking the Bears to win at 3-1 Las Vegas? Um, yeah. Vegas can't run the ball, which will help former disgruntled Raider Khalil Mack's plan to seek and destroy Derek Carr and anything that would put that Chucky victory grin on Jon Gruden's mug.
Last week's Upset Special: Lions (plus-3) 19, Bears 9. Actual score: Bears 24, Lions 14. Record: 3-1.
SEASON RESULTS
Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 8-8/7-9.
Season record straight up/against the spread: 39-25/30-34.
Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 3-1/2-2.
