NFL's playoff reshuffle

As they say in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Six of this year's playoff teams were a combined 36-60 last season.

January 6, 2012 at 5:38PM
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

It was a question with a statistic that Vikings players clung to like men whose ship had been overturned into a sea of uncertainty five miles from shore following a 3-13 season.

"Did you know," they were asked, "that the NFL has now gone 16 consecutive seasons with at least five playoff teams that fell short of the postseason the year before?"

No one knew the exact details, but each was well aware of the parity that makes the NFL so popular.

"Happens every year," defensive end Brian Robison said. "Teams at the bottom of the barrel come right back and make the playoffs."

That's not all, said kicker Ryan Longwell.

"Look at San Francisco's situation," Longwell said of the team that was 6-10 -- same as the Vikings -- in 2010. "It shows you that you don't have to go from mediocre to [good], you can go from really bad to really good quickly."

Since 1996, there have been 95 playoff teams that didn't make the postseason the year before. Four of them came from 3-13 or worse the previous season. That includes the 2008 Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won the AFC East. It also includes the 2006 Saints, who went from 3-13 to the NFC Championship Game.

Of course, it helps when you add Bill Parcells to the top of your front office flow chart, as the Dolphins did; or sign Drew Brees as a free agent, as the Saints did. But, hey, a Viking still can dream from the bottom of a barrel, can't he?

This year, three playoff teams in each conference -- the 49ers, Giants and Lions in the NFC; and the Texans, Broncos and Bengals in the AFC -- weren't here a year ago. Heck, a year ago, they were a combined 36-60.

The Texans are in the playoffs for the first time in their 10-year existence. The Lions are in for the first time since 1999 and haven't won a playoff game since the end of the 1991 season. The 49ers are back after nine seasons, the Broncos after six, and the Bengals for only the third time since 1990, when they last won a playoff game.

Seven of the eight division winners are different from last season. Naturally, the only division winner to defend successfully was New England. But even the mighty Patriots are 0-3 in their past three postseason games, including the Giants' 17-14 upset in Super Bowl XLII.

"It's encouraging to see what teams can do in just one year," Vikings defensive tackle Kevin Williams said. "Look what Green Bay went through. They were a middle-of-the-road team. Then, shoot, they won the Super Bowl last year and got a great chance of winning it again this year."

Threatening the Pack

The Packers (15-1) led the league in victories, points (35.0 per game) and defensive interceptions (31). But not everyone at Winter Park is sold on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers defending their title. Cornerback Antoine Winfield picked the Saints and then smiled when asked why.

"Two words," he said. "Drew Brees."

The Saints have won eight in a row while Brees has collected NFL records for passing yards (5,476), completions (468) and completion percentage (71.2). New Orleans opens the playoffs Saturday night against the Lions in the first playoff game to feature two 5,000-yard passers.

Detroit is a decided underdog, but certainly has the offense to keep pace, although it did lose 31-17 at New Orleans last month. On the season, quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns as the Lions set franchise records for points (474, 29.6) and yards (6,337, 396.1).

Saturday's first game is another rematch. Houston plays host to Cincinnati, which lost to the Texans 20-19 at home a month ago. It will be the first playoff game of the Super Bowl era to feature two rookie starting quarterbacks. Andy Dalton, a second-round draft pick, helped turn around a 4-12 team, while T.J. Yates, a fifth-round selection, is Houston's third starter this season and loser of three in a row to close the regular season.

Tebowmania revived

In Sunday's first game, Matt Ryan and his Falcons franchise-record 4,177 passing yards takes on Eli Manning and his Giants franchise-record 4,933 passing yards. But all eyes will be awaiting the second game and the playoff debut of Tim Tebow, who shouldn't have any chance of winning, except that, for whatever reason, he always has a chance.

Denver's passing-challenged passer is 7-4 as a starter, but has lost three in a row and now faces a Steelers team that ranks No. 1 in overall defense (271.8 ypg) and scoring defense (14.2 ppg).

"If you're looking for a dark horse, I'd have to say Denver," Williams said. "Watch out for Tebow. He's got something crazy going on."

The Broncos were 1-4, same as the Vikings, when they turned it around behind Tebow. But Denver's lone victory against this year's playoff field came against Cincinnati in September with Kyle Orton at quarterback.

The Bengals went 9-7, but were 0-7 against this year's playoff field. The Packers and Ravens both went 6-0 against this year's playoff teams. The Saints were 5-1, with the lone loss coming at Green Bay (42-34) in Week 1.

The 49ers were 4-1 against playoff teams in part because quarterback Alex Smith shockingly helped them tie the NFL record for fewest interceptions in a season (five). They also tied last year's Patriots for fewest turnovers (10) in a season since 1941.

"Strange things happen every year," Vikings left tackle Charlie Johnson said. "There's always a team that everybody said wasn't very good and didn't have any talent. Then they come back the next year and win the division. As we leave here, you look at that and say, 'If they can do it this year, why can't we do it next year?'"

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribune.com

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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